mnchaserguy

The last two times we had a significant tornado come through the metro were the EF1 that went through Minneapolis in 2011 and the Hugo EF3 in 2008. We are well overdue. Crazy thing is both of those tornadoes were overshadowed by EF5s elsewhere the same day (Joplin and Parkersburg). .

The we got very lucky yet again here in MSP where we split the storms this afternoon. It has been a very long time since we have had a significant storm come through. Only a matter of time before that averages out. .

Not sure. I’d have to go back and look at the surface obs. I know they fired close to a warm front. If I had to guess they fired off the cold front or dryline (can’t remember which, probably a DL) and then moved north and anchored on the warm front where there was better low level shear. An open warm sector to their south with plenty of unimpeded instability and the shear and helicity of the warm front was a perfect set up for what played out last night. Glad it was over mostly open grassland but that also meant road network was terrible and prevented some better footage of what could end up being a 2 mile wide tornado. .

Radar loop of the Nebraska supercells last night for anyone interested. One of the crazier velocity loops you’ll ever see. Wouldn’t be surprised if that tornado was on the ground for 2-3 hours. https://x.com/peterc428/status/1916728473755828285?s=42 .

Seems like the issue is a lack a forcing. Looks like weak convergence on the dryline and the cold front is way out west. .

9z rap sig tor is maxed out over MSP tomorrow. Never seen it this high here before and may never see it again. .

This is the 21z RAP sounding over my house at 23z on Monday. .

18z hrrr is similar at 18z on Monday to what the 15z RAP showed. May get some waa storms here in MSP and north towards Duluth in the morning. Could be some hail with those. If we can actual get that clearing after the waa convection we should be in business. .

Whoops. Mislabeled. It is 18z on Monday. .

I haven’t been a believer because something has just seemed off. Probably mostly the lack of better heating and narrow cape ribbons. However the RAP is screaming outbreak. If it’s correct or even somewhat close then we could be in real trouble. This is the RAP at 21z in western MN on Monday. .

Day 3 Moderate risk for MSP. Pretty rare, especially around here. .

Nice surprise storm in northern MSP right now. Had a surprisingly strong gust front with it. .

Transition from rain to snow in northern MSP. White rain coming down right now. Just to my west is getting nailed by a very heavy band. .

Grass has quickly gotten covered in snow. Roads should remain mostly ok. Big band moving in to my backyard soon. Edit. After looking at DOT cameras in the south metro it looks like the roads are getting bad quick under that heavy band moving my way.

Just rain here too. Little bit of snow and sleet today. .