vegan_edible

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Nice call

mjo admitted he made a bad call. no need to call him out. go to the upstate thread if you're from bolton landing and wna act like a silly goose

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Think this is a good post from @psuhoffman

 

just read that a little while ago, excellent post. while i do think december is gonna be a dumpster fire i do have some semblance of hope we get it cracking come mid january. patiently waiting for the models to drop those clues in over the coming weeks 

seems as though we havent had our daily dose of mjo talk yet, so i'll just drop this here...

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For Fuck's sake.

hour 342 on a off hours OP gfs run... idk im not buying in to that specific look right away

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow

 

 

looking through ensembles and im not necessarily seeing some sort of blowtorch scenario unfolding, just 40's and seasonable air through the holidays. i dont know the extent of which this will hold but the big 3 (GEFS, EPS, CMC) all seem to have us locked in on that look. 12z OP GFS seems to allow some cooler air to flood in after the storm on the 18th, obvious take that with a *big* grain of salt but i feel as though this winter is not gonna be all doom and gloom and we do have the have chances to score with january climo

somebody gotta fire up the grill with all the weenies being tossed around in this thread

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember that storm as an overnight surprise? I believe mostly rain was forecasted?

i somehow snagged like 5 inches last year feb 27th. i think we can score something this year

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, if the mjo is that weak then something else will be the driving factor. Currently, we don’t have any forecasting tool that goes out that far in the future. We can use the weeklys but their accuracy is suspect. 
 

If the MJO is indeed that weak to start January it will probably come down to where the low by AK positions itself 

im praying at this point. we cant do 2 crapper winters in a row

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2022/20281-investigating-biases-representation-pacific-sub-tropical-jet-stream-and-associated.pdf

good stuff for anyone else who is new to the idea of how the mjo influences the pacific jetstream

18z gfs claiming im getting 4.2” here in wp monday
when pigs fly

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we couldn't do it in a nina last dec with a negative ao and nao

i picked up like 1.2" last december, i think on the 11th, with some little evening accumulation in white plains

nam chose the hard stuff this morning, 18z monday

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

You need three more fishes. 

iykyk

canadian model bought that fake bodega weed and went to town

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

You and Allsnow absolutely nailed last winter. I love reading both of your posts and learn a lot. Keep up the great work! 

seriously, 2 highly informed posters, amongst many on this board. i love how much you can learn from just reading this sub

I say it every year but Christmas Day 2002 in the Albany area is absolutely unmatched.
I knew at the time, this was something that would never happen again in my life, no matter where I lived.
I remember measuring just shy of two feet late on Christmas Day.  It didn’t start snowing until that morning.  And it went absolutely bonkers
ALB recording 1.79” QPF and 19.2” of snow during 12/25 calendar day. That’s the best Christmas Day snow event one can run into.

SXUS99 KALB 261155RERALBRECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY655 AM EST THU DEC 26 2002...NEW ALL-TIME RECORD CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION...AT 1159 PM CHRISTMAS DAY 2002...THE OFFICIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY AT ALBANY WAS 19.2 INCHES.  THIS ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS CHRISTMAS RECORD OF 11.8 INCHES SET BACK IN 1978.  THE PRECIPITATION AT ALBANY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY 2002 ALSO SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY...WITH A TOTAL OF 1.79 INCHES.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.12 INCHES...ALSO SET IN 1978.  ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF SNOW... JUST AS WITH THE PREVIOUS RECORD BACK IN 1978.  AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ADDITIONAL 1.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.  AS OF 645 AM EST THURSDAY THE STORM TOTAL WAS 21.0 INCHES. THIS EVENT GOES DOWN AS BEING ALBANY'S 4TH GREATEST DECEMBER SNOWSTORM SINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDS IN 1885...AND IT IS THE 9TH GREATEST SNOWSTORM OVERALL.TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THE STORM STOOD AT 1.91 INCHES.$$ELH/GG

 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Oh lol. No you don't want a repeat of 01-02. He was referring to Nemo in 2013

sounds like '22/'23 was the recent '01/'02 and i'm all set on that lmao

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

You're 16?

i wish, i'm 28. saw 2001 and went from there. maybe i wouldnt want to experience 01/02

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Awesome, that was my dream as kid, but I do not have the math skills for a meteorology degree. It’s basically a math degree. I was able to pull off a bs In economics however. And that degree tells me, that, the salary sucks. Who can afford to live on Long Island with that salary range. (Not putting anyone down if you make less then that)

been recently thinking i should go back to school and try studying meteorology. facing the world with a degree in photography is kinda tricky. then i remembered i absolutely suck at math. dream, out the window

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My greatest weather disappointment was missing the Nemo 50DBZ  jackpot zone with 6”+ per hour rates and 30-40”totals. I would gladly take 3 winters in a row like 2001-2002 for just one storm experience like that.

i was 6 then, i wish i remember this

Just now, bluewave said:

I don’t understand why the terms like positive and negative keep getting thrown around when discussing weather model output and patterns that are outside our control to influence. 

i think there is an interesting psychological phenomenon when it comes weather and specifically the issue of lack of snow itself. whether we like it or not, we're all snow weenies here. it gets us excited to track and see the outcome. its nearly akin to gambling. we know we have ZERO control of the outcome and thats half of the excitement. when the terms positive or negative get tossed around it is a display of emotive nature, especially considering we all got jipped last year, so we have high hopes of a positive outcome, but someone displaying legitimate scientific evidence will be viewed as negative due to playing mental gymnastics

you probably already knew that, but i wanted to follow up because it really is insane how the past week has been with subjective feelings being projected onto objective outcomes

that being said, we better get a nor'easter in the metro this year

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would have stroked out over my actual blog post.

i read through that the other night actually, you posted it in the enso thread or sne, cant remember. although i couldnt understand half of it due to my lack of knowledge it was a great read

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Oh yeah I remember that I was huh how I got 1.4” here

i somehow scored like 5 inches in wp during that feb event last year

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Personally, I dislike the drama and prefer the objective analysis that makes this place so spectacularly engaging. No reason to “fight” or spar with one another over differences of opinion. I rarely see what I would actually consider trolling like on the kind of message forums I grew up on, this place is honestly pretty amazing from that perspective. We need to try our best not take umbrage with the analysis of others because it conflicts with our emotions / desires, I would argue that’s not in the spirit of this forum.

So many broadly intelligent people here posting their genuine interpretations of an enormous spread of data is going to yield disagreement, it’s the nature of the beast on a science forum.

In short, I think we all just need some damn snow . Until then, there’s really no reason to be at each other’s throats. There’s no singular way to interpret the entirety of the data that this place regularly parses. 

agree, one storm and we're gonna be singing kumbaya. not even kidding, the withdrawls have made the forum go nuts