EstorilM

Does anyone have a target ETA for the snow squalls tomorrow in northern VA / Loudoun Co? 
 

LWX has it narrowed down to a 5hr window (lol) so that doesn’t really help - I think the short range models have it pretty much nailed down, but I can’t find the post now. 

1.39" a bit south of Chantilly so far, had a heavy band about 45 min ago but it looks like radar is clearing out a bit.  Bracing ourselves for the wind next. 

Cooler than I thought this evening - my two PWS showing 27.1 in Catharpin (prince william co.) and 25.7 in Middleburg (Loudoun). Lows were forecast to be 28.

Hmmm an inch of sleet for PW County/SW Loudoun. Not sure I buy that, but I suppose it’s more entertaining than rain. 

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The real issue with this event has been that since 6z yesterday we’ve seen every cycle wobble just a little warmer. If we can just reverse that trend there’s still some potential … 

Trend has been warmer, faster, lower QPF, and NW - granted some of those are directly related, but still kinda a sucker punch for most of us. 

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Really stinks for Virginia ski resorts if they can't get a nice clean snow to drizzle event. 

Seems reasonable. Not your focus, but the euro (and to a lesser extent, GFS) had some interaction with that trailing low that provided some hope for NYC/Boston. 

Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there. 

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sounding IMBY per NAM (looking at 3k and 12k) and I hover right at 31/32 the entire time. If it's dumping precip, it should be snow. A sneaky warm nose pops up around hr66 but precip is moving out by then. 

Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region.
 

Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) 

But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. 
 

It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth. 

Sterling WFO seems to have thrown in the towel. Given that it’s Thursday, I don’t think you can say they “got it wrong” - but certainly a very different forecast than a few days ago. 
 

“….

P-type is likely to start as light
snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I-
95. However, most models have trended warmer in the low-levels east
of the Blue Ridge, especially with the 850mb being at or above
freezing east of US-15. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to
start, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any
accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks very low at this
time.” 

Wasn’t the euro saying “warmer, faster, and NW” like 4-5 days ago, when we kept calling it an outlier? 

Wow this seemed like a lock for Northern VA, then again people always say you never want to be in the bullseye ~5 days out - all it can do is “trend” away from you lol. 

48 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

For the last few hours in Gainesville,  light snow and pellets, 40 degrees and looking forward to this weekend. 

Same here in Catharpin, you’re probably a few miles away from me lol.

1.7” Saturday and 1.11” so far since midnight - should easily break 3” which was a good bit above most models for Northern Virginia. 
 

Wind is a different story, we were under a wind advisory and models had ~35-40 mph gusts. Peak gust yesterday was 20.6 mph. 
 

Temps dropped almost 10 degrees since 7AM (down to about 34) - aaaaand simultaneously, the last of the precip shield looks to have cleared my area.  So yeah, still haven't seen that snow flake yet for this season yet.

3 hours ago, Ji said:

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Chuckled a little at this from Mount Holly this morning-
That brings us to the more interesting portion of this forecast period, but still not necessarily exciting. Given we have not seen measurable snowfall in significant portions of our forecast area thus far this winter, any snow might be exciting to some. As the cold and dry airmass behind the cold front continues to sink southward tonight, a wave of low pressure will track eastward across North Carolina and eventually off the coast Wednesday morning. As a shortwave trough approaches from the west, some low and mid-level frontogenesis may be just enough to act upon some limited moisture to produce light snow across portions of the forecast area tonight, especially to the southeast of I-95.

It wasn't that funny

It's kinda entertaining when the forecasters at NWS occasionally remind us that they aren't robots lol.

I almost fell asleep reading this thread a day or so ago... I suppose 7 days out isn't really "extreme" or anything, but I definitely don't trust it.