Benjamn3

I would expect to see a lot of back and forth until we can get an actual sample from NWS, the saving grace for me in the blueridge area is the models seem to underestimate CAD so I’m hoping our temps will be lower. I’m just glad we have something to track and runs to watch. 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like GFS really cut back on precip after the overnight monster run. Might have to do with the shift to a slightly colder/less amped solution. Interesting to see how the storm has sped up so much in time. I feel like most of the time, our storms usually move back a bit in time, not up.

Which is honestly fine. I’d rather have 6 inches of straight snow rather than 7.5 of slop and ice. 

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i would like to see south shifts on the ensembles & models into 0z now.

I would love to see this sumbitch shift south a hair and to see the CAD beef up more. 

28 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

OK, so we've had talk of squirrels, big dogs (NOT Dawgs, damn you Georgia!), ducks, albatrosses, whatever.   But how about a pileated woodpecker?  Saw this guy digging away at a tree nearby where I'm at...he just went about his business and didn't mind me standing there taking several photos.  You can see some of the wood chips he tossed aside.  I hear when a woodpecker is busy, it portends a snowstorm.  Well, not really, but it sounds good!

We have a nest at our place (our property is next to the National Forrest in our area)so we see several flying around.  Great big ol rascals. I will say they have been busy and the squirrels nests are high this year. 

“You’re a clown if you are getting invested in these snow clown maps”. 
 

Me: 

Just now, Chris78 said:

Were almost down to 5 days nows. 

Would be nice to get s region wide event. It's been a while lol.

And the ski resorts need it so badly. Just looked around and no local resorts are open. You'd have to drive 2 - 3 hours west to find one.

Looks like whitetail and Round top opened briefly before shutting down operations. 

How's wisp? I know they’re open but is it pretty limited at this point?

Snow shoe is doing ok, but I think they are the exception this season. 

14 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Kick Ass CAD…I like that

Sounds like a fuckin franchise for us Appalachian kids. My neck of the woods I have to watch this sub and the SE one. I will say this group has some amazing forecasters. I’m really enjoying reading and learning. 

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agree.  Might leave them up.  3 inches looks like 10 inches if you squint.  Either measurement gets the job done…10 inches is better of course 

Same. The tree may have to go cause it’s a tad try lol but, it’s looking like we should get some moisture, just these pesky temps. I’m west of the blue ridge in VA so I’m just hoping our CAD kicks ass and saves us from P-type issues. But that’s a wishcast. 

Meanwhile in SW VA we are like. 

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What kind of horse? We own a Clydesdale mix.

Rocky Mountain horses are the breed we train,breed and sell. We are going to KY to pick up a little filly that should be a beast when she’s grown. Also I was going to hit a distillery or two the day before, but if we get snowed in that’s awesome too… I do love draft horses though, such a calm demeanor learning to drive a draft horse is something I’d love to learn to do. 

A lot of these maps are NSFW. Gotta warn a dude.

Also I was supposed to pick up a horse in Central Kentucky that Sunday and was looking forward to the trip. So it’s probably gonna smack us. 

Love catching up on the disco after good runs on the grave yard shift. On my second cup of coffee. Just hit the Penjamin  and about to workout. It’s lookin promising homies. Merry Christmas! 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We finally have a trickle from the spring at the farm our horse is boarded at in Finksburg.

Good to hear. Our wells are good even in a drought by luck. I just worry about the health of the grass in the fields. We’re down in Fincastle VA. I love cold but also hate it when water freezes and I’m running around freezing my ass off busting water when the heating elements in the water goes bad. 

27 minutes ago, stormy said:

That "6 inches of wasted water" was wonderful drought mitigation for western folks.

Our fields and horses/clients horses certainly appreciated it. Really wish we could get some snow on the ground for the water tables this summer. 

What’s the general consensus y’all are seeing for Xmas? Looks to me like about seasonal temps with a little rain. 

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That little discrete wave has been showing up for a few days. Maybe some mood flakes +. 

Hell just give me seasonal temps so I can have a fire in the evening. 

In the words of Geralt of Rivia “hmmmm”. 

I have a feeling things will improve before Christmas. Nothing wild like vodka cold and snow. However I feel like the models will start to improve in the coming days. 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you loop the last 48 hours on the gefs and geps you can see positive progress happening. 

I noticed that as well when I was checking the 12z on lunch. The last three runs have dropped temps about 10 degrees in my neck of the woods. 

Really the best I can tell, the GFS and CMC ensembles aren’t a torch or shorts and flip flops on Xmas. Looks a touch above seasonal. We are kicking the can for some real cold or a shot at snow. However it’s not a shit show, and so much can change 2 weeks out. Fingers crossed. I have a hope things will look better in the coming days. We don’t believe good news, so let’s not believe the mediocre either. Lol

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Unless the hotline has some one willing to write prescriptions most of us need...then its useless....don't tell me it will be ok...just give me meds so I can fall asleep with my shoes on

I’ll reach out to the dispensary I use for my medical marijuana and see if they would like to advertise. 

I think this hotline is a scam. All it did was send me to a link to buy flip flops and shorts. 

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

But then the 6z GFS also shows a storm missing to the south a few days before Christmas….

Right where we want it at this range for now according to my handbook….

As a member of the SW VA delegation, I’m locking that one in. 

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'd pay real money for a 3" - 5" Christmas snow event that ushers us into a legit winter. 

A true Christmas miracle.