Rainforrest

99.5”

Cool maps. 

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I got some new chest waders for trout fishing but looks like the water levels will be high after the new few weeks. About all the models have 3 to 5 inches of rain the next 10 days and it's already wet...

High dingy water will get those big browns bitn. 

15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The flow has picked up here pretty dramatically.  We are getting hammered with snow. Deck, cars, and grass are getting covered. 

Just came through the gorge and it was hammering. 

32 and light rain

Wind is already kicking up pretty good here. 

Over 2” here as well. 

15 hours ago, jpbart said:

Well we had a very brief shower here in Chapin SC.  I been seeing dust devils lately with it being so darn dry so even a little is appreciated.  Of course I am going to Brevard this Sunday to fish on the Davidson River, I hope it's not a wash out.  I will fish in the rain so long as its not a thunderstorm.

If we get all the rain they are calling for you won’t be fishing on the Davidson river. Lol

6 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Backside hit is back on FV3

Can you post it?

10 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Can anyone spot the escarpment?

Yep

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

One thing I'm concerned about for the upstate storm potential. I've noticed over the years, while CAD is always underdone on the models, an arriving CAD is usually a few hours later than models show. They usually arrive later, but hold out longer.

In the upstate, we are relying on the CAD arriving during precip late Saturday night. If it builds in a few hours later than expected, we will waste all the front side precip to rain. Something to keep an eye on.

I do fully expect the entire upstate to drop in to the upper 20's when the CAD entrenches though, and seemingly we still have quite a bit of precip left to go through Sunday evening. So even without the front end thump it should be significant. (I will say that the coverage of precip is more unpredictable after the initial band goes through, so it's possible we don't get the modelled qpf after Sunday morning). But even if we just get a few tenths it would be bad from an impact stand point with temps in the upper 20's.

Hey Burrell you gonna make the trip up 178 to the in laws place?

2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

NWS GSP update... too low on the ice accumulations, imo.

Looks about right for my location. Hoping for more though. 

14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yep agreed. We just had a flood warning here early this morning. Close to 3 inches just last night in northern end of county. 

Definitely not good. We’ve already had 103 inches so far this year. I don’t know how much more we can handle. 

4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It then pushes inland moving NW past Greenville and over the mountains past NE Tenn. Mountains would get good rains with this path. 

How much rain are we looking at for the mountains?

Any chance this ridge comes in stronger and pushes this thing farther south into the coast of South Carolina or georgia?

5 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

I like it

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM kuchera output.. still snowing too ...

Awesome. How long does the nam show it snowing in western nc?

20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march).  In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste.

On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day.

Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow.

Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm.

 

Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now.  Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO.

Not according to gsp. Lol 

When does the cmc run?

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This run is a SWNC/ Franklin special 

I’ll take it. 

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Thoughts:

1. My forecast map is based on where I think the models will end up, not where they necessarily are now. 

2. I like a more amped up solution closer to the UKMet and CMC.  Warmer.  More precip back to the west, even more than shown - models are notorious for being skimpy with precip on the NW side with Miller A's.  Also, jet structure (right entrance region of strong jet) is excellent for building precip back west.

3. I was mainly focused on NE GA / SC / NC on the map...didn't look hard at N GA into Bama or other states.

Grit I’ll take that map and run. Lol