salbers

I like to see the satellite animations alternating with the text - fyi.

Spire's SRFS 12z model run has the track moving more to the NE actually passing over New Orleans.

Here is James Van Fleet's discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7239270198455783424/

I'll suggest a central pressure of 970-975mb. Perhaps that's close to a category 2.

James van Fleet video with SRFS model discussion:

https://x.com/SpireWxClimate/status/1833165234900451340

Here's the story over the next couple of days with the RAP:

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/jsloopUpdated.cgi?dsKeys=rap_ncep_jet:&runTime=2024090721&plotName=totp_full_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=52&model=rr&ptitle=RAP and RRFS Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=51&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1&resizePlot=1

ICON also has vigorous development after the merger:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024090715&fh=loop&r=gom&dpdt=&mc=

GFS is initializing the low at 12z south of where the satellite circulation center is for the former 90L.

The RAP shows this merger:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024090715&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=gom&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=rap

I'll update the thread title to mention 90L & 91L.

Both of these are still distinctly visible on satellite so it will be interesting to see how they can merge.

https://col.st/hoN7H

It's a good website though for some reason Microsoft Teams flags it as a security risk. Perhaps Claude can help in tightening this up?

Is there a parent web site to the ATCF page? I'm having some challenges with the direct link.

35kt is enough for a tropical depression though it may have yet to be classified as such.

Discussion of this system in the Spire video with the SRFS:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7237851905635299330/

What we've been following in the NW Gulf since Aug 30 in the "2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season" thread.

Looks like an energetic circulation on visible satellite here: https://col.st/i3X9I

One coastal / buoy station (LUIT2) recently had sustained NE winds around 22kt.

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Kudos to @salbersbut also kudos to the ICON. No other model has even been close as far as consistently showing a closed surface low getting going around now in the NW Gulf. Folks can see it for themselves by looking at old runs going back many days right now at TT. That model has also been showing it move south toward the Bay of Campeche and getting stronger through the weekend.

 A few runs of the UKMET have had something but the ICON looks like the easy winner.

Thanks GaWx - Fyi I've mentioned the Spire Hi-res model also showing this since last Friday (with a break over the weekend) as well. The model forecasts were discussed at the time in some online video presentations. This model (called SRFS) has been more consistently to the north than the ICON. One place to see a collection of these videos is here:

https://insights.spire.com/jvf

La Nina is barely getting started it seems with the SST indices. We might want to give this more time for later in the season.

The system in the NW Gulf continues to spin up in the eyes of the Spire and HRRR Hi-res models over the next 48 hours.

FYI - both Spire's Hi-res model and the HRRR do some spinup of the Gulf low during the next 48 hours, keeping it more to the north. ICON brings it more to the south like yesterday's run.

In the Gulf the ICON model has the low in the western Gulf eventually merging with a wave coming in from the east. Perhaps the western Gulf low is being supported by a short wave visible in water vapor satellite to the west near the Big Bend?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024090218&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=caribbean&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=icon (ICON loop)

https://col.st/OeOjg (Water vapor satellite)

By September 10 we get this chance in the ECMWF judging from the model trend loop in the East Atlantic.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024090212&fh=198&r=eatl&dpdt=loop&mc=

Convection flaring up off the TX coast, though the circulation is more off to the SW.

https://col.st/sge0Q

6 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There are a couple of circulations I can see another very small directly to the east somewhat hiding underneath some high clouds both are naked swirls pretty good NW shear.  Actually, I am wondering if that very small circulation is the ingredient for a coastal low up along the East Coast by September 7th??  Every model has a coastal low or low coming up from the south next weekend.

Indeed there could also be something of a circulation underneath all the convection south of New Orleans. Pressures are also lower there.

Yes the ICON has it drifting offshore toward the S for 8+ days:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024090112&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=caribbean&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=icon

On satellite one storm is presently firing just W of the center.

https://col.st/5slRG

The animation above indeed looks to show a southward drift.

Circulation now more evident in the NW Gulf with visible satellite:

https://col.st/2RN4G

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If this disturbance in the NW GOM were to become a TC eventually, the ICON will deserve major kudos. A whole bunch of runs in a row, including the 0Z, have shown this. I don’t recall any other global having a TC from this.

True about the global models. The Spire Hi-res regional model that runs out to 6-days had such development in two consecutive runs on Friday. This is discussed in a video made on Friday:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-van-fleet-2365b556/recent-activity/all/

Meanwhile at buoy 42002 the pressure is still dropping (overall compared with yesterday) and SW winds picking up.

Wind Direction (WDIR):	SW ( 230 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	19.4 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.82 in
Air Temperature (ATMP):	83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP):	87.3 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):	13.6 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):	13.6 kts
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

Visible satellite animation suggests a circulation center just south of Galveston, though the trough is also sheared to the SE.

https://col.st/eOQUB

Buoy station 42002 has a pressure of 1012mb at 1740 UTC. Winds: WNW (290°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt

Link to data: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml

Update: at 2110 UTC this station has a pressure of 29.81" or 1009mb. A close 2nd for lowest pressure is Alice TX on land with 29.83". Part of the drop is from the semi-diurnal atmospheric tide, though the trend is clearly down in the graph shown below.

Link to the 42002 station (including live data and panoramic camera image): https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Houston getting 80 mph gusts is impressive for an 80 mph hurricane that came ashore nearly 85 miles away 

Yes this hurricane's large size gives it more total energy and more impact - thus its peak winds (category) are only part of the story.