HurricaneJosh

On 12/16/2019 at 6:23 PM, shaggy said:

I am probably one of the few humans who doesnt have a Twitter account but I was watching on Twitter the entire time. Really thought it was gonna barely miss you south but a few hours before landfall it was clear you were gonna catch the eye. Great video as always.

Thanks so much, shaggy. I'm glad you enjoyed it, and I hope you're doing well. Nice to reconnect with you like this.

On 12/2/2019 at 5:46 AM, shaggy said:

Looks like Josh is gonna catch the northern eyewall and may the edge of the eye of Kamurri 

I most certainly did-- got right smack in the eye. Here's the action. It's one of my better nighttime videos. The hotel was on a generator, so there was some light to work with.

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor.

The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).

 

Hey, thanks, Mike! I'm flattered that you have such a firm belief in my ability to pull that off again-- or top it. If I go to my grave with DORIAN being my biggest score, I'll feel like I did what I was put on this earth to do. But, hey, it's always worth striving for that next level. Anyhoo, thanks for watching the video. Hope you're well, man.

17 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I'm posting this comment in the banter thread, as I would suspect any convo regarding chasers (more personally) would be more applicable outside the main storm specific thread.

That said, I wanted to make it abundantly clear that I was (and am) genuinely excited for Josh to have intercepted the eye and core of Dorian.  Unlike some, I don't get jealous of others' chasing success.  Why should they?  It has no relevancy on their own chase abilities.  

My wholly scientically objective observation that the winds don't appear to have been any higher in Marsh Harbour than those I happened to observe on the western-most portion of Mexico Beach, shouldn't be taken as somehow an attempt at minimizing the effects on Marsh Harbour.  The only relevancy to Josh in such evaluation is simply an objective review of the winds he documented on video.  As stated multiple times already, I feel he captured genuine Cat 5 winds on video...which is a VERY rare occurrence.  

It makes zero difference that I happened to be the one who documented the highest winds in Michael or that Josh happened to be the one documenting Dorian in MH.  The only relevancy between the two is that each intercept location experienced the greatest impact from the two storms, respectively.  Thus, my own personal interest in knowing what the peak MSW might've been at each specific locality.

Given Josh is typically in the core of a major landfalling hurricane at or near ground-zero, I can understand why some might misinterpret my objective analysis of the peak winds that most likely were encountered in that area, and falsely presume I have some stupid ulterior motive or "agenda".  Nothing could be further from the truth! 

Even when some resorted to unjustified personal attacks when I respectfully argued that all the objective scientific data clearly suggested Patricia wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall, I didn't waver on my wholly objective opinion.   Subsequently, the NHC agreed with my precise 130 kt estimate.  Similar instances occurred in discussion of Michael's landfall intensity.   Yet again, my best educated guess (based solely on the objective scientific data) was validated in the NHC TCR.  Now, some are taking exception to my objective viewpoint that Marsh Harbour didn't get anywhere close to those one-minute 10 m estimated MSWs.  Unlike with Michael, we have a lot less access to all the available data, whereby making a specific best educated estimate of the MSW encountered in MH is far more problematic.  That's why I've asked if anyone knows of any additional data that may be available?  Regardless, I'm confident that MH saw a MSW of at least 140 kt.  

I don't personally consider chasing a sport, much less a competition with other chasers.  In sequence of events, my initial goal is to either get into the eye or the area of strongest winds from a documentation standpoint.  Secondly, record the barometric pressure at that location.  Currently in the process of obtaining an anemometer to accurately record wind measurements in future intercepts.  Next, to assist with search and rescue following a devastating event...followed by documentation of the aftermath.   Lastly, I always have (since Katrina in 2005) and always will devote at least one full day to assisting with the cleanup.  This is one thing I wish all chasers would do, and feel we all should do, considering we intentionally place ourselves in these areas of greatest impact and often times benefit from doing so.  Regardless of the other ways we help, I still think it's the least we can do...but that's just me.  

This post is long enough.  But, I just simply wanted to share my personal viewpoints on the contents contained herein to help those who might misinterpret them.  Thanks for taking the time to read it.  Hope all have a great rest of the day!

Thanks for your interest in my work, Tony. I appreciate it.

Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:
 

On 3/25/2019 at 8:24 AM, wxeyeNH said:

Some of you know Josh Morgerman an avid Hurricane chaser and who is part of the AMWX community. I met him years ago at one of the AMWX get-togethers.  Really nice guy.  Last year he teamed up with a UK producer and created the new series Hurricane Man.  A crew traveled with Josh as he traveled the globe in pursuit of tropical cyclones.  The first episode aired on British cable last night.  I understand it is really good.  Lots of epic footage.  A US cable channel just picked it up but it's not 100% finalized so Josh can't say who they are but he did say it's one of the major channels most people get.  Should be a good show.  I think Josh has chased more tropical cyclones than anyone else in the world.  That is quite a feat!

Thanks, Gene!

My show, Hurricane Man, is broadcasting in a bunch of countries now, including the UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, etc. In the USA, it'll premiere on Science Channel in September. It was going to be June, but that's a dead zone in terms of TV. The network really digs the show and decided they wanted to have it as part of their big fall primetime lineup, so they rescheduled it. I'll announce the premiere date as soon as I know it.

On 3/25/2019 at 8:27 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

He knows his stuff.  I worry whenever he chases some of the huge ones.   

Thanks, man.

On 3/25/2019 at 8:28 AM, dendrite said:

Lisa has showed me a few of the trailers. Josh is a science guy, but he definitely has a flair for the dramatic too.

Well... The lead dude on an action-adventure TV show needs to be... expressive.

I might also add that I do find myself in legitimately dramatic situations-- like, you know, Cat 5s in the jungles of the Philippines. It's not like I'm hamming it up in 40-knot winds and drizzle in Myrtle Beach.

On 3/25/2019 at 9:10 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah he loves it. Josh knows his shit too...he is probably exactly how you would want to model yourself as a chaser if you intend to chase high-end damaging winds. He meticulously researches every angle going into a storm. I helped him plan a few back in the day over a decade ago...he would seek opinions on everything from the actual storm to who has been near the chase zone for staging...so that definitely helps in minimizing risk. 

Thx, Will. I've taken some dumb risks over the years and I've had a few brushes with death-- but, hey, I'm still here after 28 years of chasing around the globe, so I'm doing something right.

P.S. I miss our collaborations. You used to be one of my go-to guys.

On 3/25/2019 at 9:21 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Great back story by Joshs support crew and camera folks on what it took to follow him into hell and back. 

My crew was amazing. There were actually three crews. When I first went to England to meet them, I was worried as hell-- these folks had never been in a hurricane, and I was thinking, "Holy crap, can they handle this?" But I trained them on what to expect and how to survive, and they were very brave. They never freaked out or complained-- even as I took 'em in to the cores of multiple Cat 5s (Super Typhoon MANGKHUT and then MICHAEL). They kept their heads down and got the shots we needed to create awesome TV. I'm damn proud of the show.

In case anyone's curious, here's the promo they used to promote the show in the United Kingdom for this premiere this past spring:

And here's my video from WILLA. This was my coolest, naughtiest—and stupidest—chase of the year, as I drove into the eyewall at the very last minute to make sure I penetrated the eye (which I did). You'll notice WILLA's core was extremely turbulent, with violent gusts and frequent lightning (unusual in hurricanes). The calm eye lasted about a half hour and was very sharply defined. Notice how the wind seems loudest and most intense just before the eye—as if the inner ring was the very strongest part—and also how the winds come roaring back very suddenly starting at 7:44 pm.

Wow, I want to say thanks to all you guys for posting all the WILLA porn as it came ashore. This was a pedal-the-metal kind of chase and I didn't have much time to collect any imagery-- so it's awesome to find the treasure trove of stuff in this here thread.

WILLA was my best chase of the year-- the one I'm most proud of. Chasing without radar is a bitch-- it's like chasing blindfolded, because IR images are so coarse and there's major parallax displacement-- so punching the eye requires more skill, more finesse. I deployed sensors (and collected high-quality data) at three locations along the landfall zone, and managed to perfectly nail the eye with a final, risky position adjustment that had me driving into the eyewall. (Yeah, yeah, it was stupid-- whatever.) WILLA's core was surprisingly violent-- with frequent lightning and the sound of a train.

This here infographic summarizes my work on WILLA. I deployed the sensors at Locations B and C in advance, then rode out the cyclone's core at Location A. (That's why the data trace for Location A is shortest-- I got there last.) Notice I was able to estimate the eye dimensions (12 n mi diameter) and boundaries via eyewitness interviews afterward.

P.S. I should be releasing my WILLA video in the next week or so.

On 10/17/2018 at 7:16 PM, Windspeed said:

Nice charted pressure vs distance relationship/comparison by Josh Morgerman [mention=19]hurricanejosh[/mention] between two of his Kestrel instruments, seperated by 3.7 miles. One left at his original chase location recorded 939.7 mb. It remained inside the eyewall. A second he had inside the hotel at his final chase position that measure 923.2 mb just inside the western periphery of the eye. A difference of 16.5 mb in 3.7 miles or 4.46 mb per mile. That is probably not exact as the pressure drop probably increased from point B to A. At any rate, that aligns pretty well to the last 919 mb center fix by recon at landfall, though central pressure may have actually dropped a mb or two lower as landfall was underway. Regardless, that is an impressively tight pressure gradient. Post analysis should definitely be interesting.

 

 

Hey, thanks! I felt good about my work on MICHAEL: got in the eye, collected quality-controlled data from two locations in the core (one in the eye, one in the inner eyewall), got some crazy video, and got out in one piece. It wasn't my strongest cyclone of the season (that honor goes to Super Typhoon MANGKHUT in the Philippines), nor was it my favorite chase of the season (that would be Hurricane WILLA in Mexico), but it was definitely one of my top chases of 2018.

On 3/25/2018 at 7:48 AM, bowtie` said:

Nice eye candy. Is that your footage before the head-banging started, or is it stock footage from someone else?

The calm intro shots of L.A. are licensed stock footage! I don't do that kinda fancy photography!

17 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

Haha nice work, Josh! I headbanged a little. Good luck on your chases this year. May they be as successful as 2018, though hopefully less witnessing to devestation of densely populated areas.

 

Hey, thanks! Glad you liked it! Agreed-- it would be nice to see less human impact this coming season-- the last was a bit much.

Oh, hey. My latest YouTube channel ad. A lot of my recent chaseporn crammed into a minute. Enjoy!

On 11/19/2017 at 11:55 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Gonna have to go with Patricia and Haiyan as my guesses if Maria is numero 3. If not, maybe dujuan(I think that's the name) in 3rd?

Sorry to be responding three months later! Anyhoo, you're clearly very familiar with my work, because yeah, those are my Top 3 (in chronological order): HAIYAN, PATRICIA, and MARIA. They're kind of in their own special category in terms of how violent and just OMG they were.

ODILE would be a solid and undisputed No. 4. In some ways maybe it deserves to be in the Top 3. It was just a really intense, edgy hurricane. The classification as Cat 3 doesn't do it justice. That sh*t was vicious.

14 hours ago, cmasty1978 said:

You saying maybe top 3 instead of being definitive makes me think Odile must have been nuts. At least that’s what I’m assuming must be the storm in question. 

 

ODILE is not in my Top 3. MARIA was worse!

My complete MARIA report: 

http://icyclone.com/upload/chases/maria/iCyclone_Chase_Report_MARIA2017.pdf

I was on the SE coast of Puerto Rico, just a few miles N of the landfall point—a perfect location to get totally right-front-quadded. Needless to say, the conditions were ferocious. The most distinctive thing about this chase? Concentric eyewalls that brought two distinct wind maxima—separated by a marked lull—on the ground. This aside, I calculated air-pressure gradients up to ~7 mb/n mi in the inner core—among the highest I’ve measured. (PATRICIA still holds the crown: I calculated gradients well over 10 mb/n mi in that one).

In terms of intensity, data, and just wow-factor, MARIA is one of my greatest chases—maybe Top 3.

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mark Sudduth is coming out with a report from his remote data on the Keys

Yeah, he mentioned to me he's going down to Marathon to get that station. I'm excited to see what he got. I love his work-- it's very cool.

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Keys hurricane summary

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PSH&issuedby=KEY

Yeah, I was commenting about this on Twitter today. The wind data from the Keys in IRMA was really blah across the board. Just not impressed.

14 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

At the risk of sounding aggressively contrarian I doubt the validity of those 120 knot gusts in Naples. I saw all the reporters from twc and the three cable news nets and every reporter was able to continue standing up all the while remaining live, on air. And some of the networks were on balconies and elevated parking garages.

Max winds in a hurricane happen in narrow streaks. Winds will vary greatly even within one city. (See CELIA 1970 in Corpus Christi for good example of this.)

Whether or not folks can stand on downwind balconies or in parking structures is not a good way of assessing wind speeds. In Cat-5 Super Typhoon HAIYAN, I stood on a balcony during the worst of it. (It was stupid and I almost got killed, but I did it.)

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea I know you knew that, your video was as intense as any. I know you apologized for the length but in fact the human element added a lot. Rather than just the chaser showing wind, it brought faces to the fear, much like Haiyan, Patricia

Thank you so much, Steve! I really appreciate that. I was really tortured about the length, and in the end, I'm glad I included those elements. I'm psyched you feel like they add to it. Awesome.

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One thing Josh there were thousands of wood structures/houses destroyed in PR

Yeah, to be clear, I'm talking about where I was: Palmas Del Mar. Nothing there is wood.

P.S. I added clarification to my original post to say "where they have means" they don't build with wood.

1 hour ago, wxmx said:

Agree...same goes for Homestead during Andrew. Wooden frame houses and mobile homes don't stand a chance against a cat 4/5...OTOH reinforced concrete buildings will remain with little to no structural damage. Yes, windows, doors, roof tiles and damage related to falling trees/flying debris may occur, but you won't see a clean slab in the aftermath of a cat 4/5.

Exactly.

38 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Andrew destroyed entire shopping centers. The type of structure was wholly irrelevant. Everything was destroyed in south Dade county and anyone on the ground there will attest to this. The damage in Puerto Rico although severe and politically momentous is not comparable to Andrew in any way, shape or form and I'm basing this assertion on aerial footage and my 1992 experience on the ground.

ANDREW was a stronger hurricane than MARIA (Cat 5 versus Cat 4), so it inflicted heavier wind damage. I'm not sure why you're arguing that point, since it's to be expected.

But, yes, the type of structure *is* relevant.  A shopping center can be constructed well or constructed badly. Pre-ANDREW, a lot of Florida was constructed like crap. Now it's much better. The minimal damage in Naples after IRMA (during which the city had officially measured gusts over 120 knots) is a good indicator of how far Florida has come.

P.S. To add to my point... The damage caused by HARVEY in Rockport and Aransas Pass looked much more dramatic than the damage caused by MARIA in Palmas Del Mar. In HARVEY I saw complete building failures, whereas I did not see that in MARIA. But guess what? MARIA's winds were much stronger than HARVEY's. It's just that Rockport and Aransas Pass have lots of older, wood-frame or lightweight-metal industrial buildings-- and lots of mobile homes-- whereas in Palmas Del Mar, everything is solid concrete.

48 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Thanks for the clarification Josh and thanks for your great work covering the hurricanes this season.  I'm glad you're getting some much deserved national publicity via Weather Nation.  The damage photos I saw suggested CAT 3 damage but I will defer to your better informed on the ground opinion.  You seemed to get out of the Southern coastal part of the island en route to the SAN Juan airport rather quickly.  How did you manage to get out so quickly?  Lots of credible reporters on the ground have been saying the roads are impassable.

Thanks! The drive from Humacao to San Juan was pure hell and I was sure I wouldn't make it-- I was planning to sleep in the car on the side of the highway-- but somehow I did make it.

Re: your wind estimate... I don't want to belabor the point, but this is important to address: On what basis do you say the damage looked like Cat 3? Like I said above, everything there is solid concrete, so these buildings will survive even Cat-5 winds. The trees where I rode out the cyclone were 100% defoliated and in many cases debarked, and there were (as you saw in my video) many palms decrowned or snapped mid-trunk, which suggests really extreme winds. Really, only structural engineers-- guys like Tim Marshall-- are qualified to look at buildings and say, "This is Cat-4 damage," and "This is Cat-3 damage." The rest of us (me included, despite having been in the cores of 36 hurricanes/typhoons) are just kinda making it up.

That point aside, thanks for your very kind words. I appreciate it.

Hey, guys! Hope you're all well. I know I'm not here much these days, but I saw y'all were discussing my chase, so I thought I'd pop in and say hey.

Now that I've had time to process it, I'd say MARIA is a Top-3 chase for me in terms of the quality/violence of the eyewall. It helped that I was in the perfect spot: at the coast, just a few miles right of the exact landfall point. I got totally right-front-quadded. The NHC's verdict (high-end Cat 4) felt right to me-- that is, not quite a Cat 5 but harsher than other Cat 4s I've been in. (Yes, that's a subjective take, not a scientific opinion.) I'd say MARIA was in the neighborhood of PATRICIA, but much larger and longer-lasting. (PATRICIA was a total microcane-- the extreme winds lasted about 17 minutes in my location-- whereas MARIA was pretty large and the extreme winds went on for over an hour.)

My lowest pressure was 929.4 mb. (Actually, that's my lowest *recorded* pressure. I saw the barometer dip below 929, but the 1-min sampling didn't catch the absolute extreme.)

Below is my video. It's long, so if you want to skip to the daytime Cat-4 eyewall porn, the red-meat stuff goes from 6:18 to 6:21 am (timestamp in lower left), then there's a brightening/calming as I apparently graze the edge of the eye (although the lowest pressure did not happen at that time), and then the really severe sh*t starts around 6:56 am. By 7:15 am you can't see a damn thing, and I'd say it's the most extreme eyewall whiteout I've experienced in my decades of chasing (with the single possible exception of PATRICIA). The worst of it was over before 8 am.

Oh, one point: Be careful of trying to estimate peaks winds based on the damage to buildings-- especially in the town where I was (Palmas Del Mar). Two points: 1) Puerto Rico builds for hurricane winds and 2) this is a very affluent area. All of the buildings there are **solid concrete**. (Actually, this applies to a lot of these tropical islands, American and not. They don't have mobile homes and where they have means they don't build wood houses like we do on the mainland. They know better.) Damage to roofs and windows was heavy.

Enjoy!

Agreed Josh.

Ditto what Josh said. I've been following this whole story since we all were worried if JoMo was okay during the storm that day. I've continue to follow Jomo's thread here and it's truly amazing the progress Joplin has had since the tornado took part of that city off the map. Such a testament to that city and it's people for getting done what needed to be done even though it was so much easier to give in to despair with the overwhelming task they had at hand. I would love to visit someday because there are some truly remarkable people there. They should all be so very proud of the fine example they have established for how disaster recovery should be handled. Bravo Joplin!

Thank you-- but to be clear, I had equal praise for our federal disaster response. The people of Joplin deserve credit-- and so, too, does our federal government and this application of our federal tax dollars. It is a win all around.