HurricaneJosh

On 12/16/2019 at 6:23 PM, shaggy said:

I am probably one of the few humans who doesnt have a Twitter account but I was watching on Twitter the entire time. Really thought it was gonna barely miss you south but a few hours before landfall it was clear you were gonna catch the eye. Great video as always.

Thanks so much, shaggy. I'm glad you enjoyed it, and I hope you're doing well. Nice to reconnect with you like this.

On 12/2/2019 at 5:46 AM, shaggy said:

Looks like Josh is gonna catch the northern eyewall and may the edge of the eye of Kamurri 

I most certainly did-- got right smack in the eye. Here's the action. It's one of my better nighttime videos. The hotel was on a generator, so there was some light to work with.

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor.

The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).

 

Hey, thanks, Mike! I'm flattered that you have such a firm belief in my ability to pull that off again-- or top it. If I go to my grave with DORIAN being my biggest score, I'll feel like I did what I was put on this earth to do. But, hey, it's always worth striving for that next level. Anyhoo, thanks for watching the video. Hope you're well, man.

17 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I'm posting this comment in the banter thread, as I would suspect any convo regarding chasers (more personally) would be more applicable outside the main storm specific thread.

That said, I wanted to make it abundantly clear that I was (and am) genuinely excited for Josh to have intercepted the eye and core of Dorian.  Unlike some, I don't get jealous of others' chasing success.  Why should they?  It has no relevancy on their own chase abilities.  

My wholly scientically objective observation that the winds don't appear to have been any higher in Marsh Harbour than those I happened to observe on the western-most portion of Mexico Beach, shouldn't be taken as somehow an attempt at minimizing the effects on Marsh Harbour.  The only relevancy to Josh in such evaluation is simply an objective review of the winds he documented on video.  As stated multiple times already, I feel he captured genuine Cat 5 winds on video...which is a VERY rare occurrence.  

It makes zero difference that I happened to be the one who documented the highest winds in Michael or that Josh happened to be the one documenting Dorian in MH.  The only relevancy between the two is that each intercept location experienced the greatest impact from the two storms, respectively.  Thus, my own personal interest in knowing what the peak MSW might've been at each specific locality.

Given Josh is typically in the core of a major landfalling hurricane at or near ground-zero, I can understand why some might misinterpret my objective analysis of the peak winds that most likely were encountered in that area, and falsely presume I have some stupid ulterior motive or "agenda".  Nothing could be further from the truth! 

Even when some resorted to unjustified personal attacks when I respectfully argued that all the objective scientific data clearly suggested Patricia wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall, I didn't waver on my wholly objective opinion.   Subsequently, the NHC agreed with my precise 130 kt estimate.  Similar instances occurred in discussion of Michael's landfall intensity.   Yet again, my best educated guess (based solely on the objective scientific data) was validated in the NHC TCR.  Now, some are taking exception to my objective viewpoint that Marsh Harbour didn't get anywhere close to those one-minute 10 m estimated MSWs.  Unlike with Michael, we have a lot less access to all the available data, whereby making a specific best educated estimate of the MSW encountered in MH is far more problematic.  That's why I've asked if anyone knows of any additional data that may be available?  Regardless, I'm confident that MH saw a MSW of at least 140 kt.  

I don't personally consider chasing a sport, much less a competition with other chasers.  In sequence of events, my initial goal is to either get into the eye or the area of strongest winds from a documentation standpoint.  Secondly, record the barometric pressure at that location.  Currently in the process of obtaining an anemometer to accurately record wind measurements in future intercepts.  Next, to assist with search and rescue following a devastating event...followed by documentation of the aftermath.   Lastly, I always have (since Katrina in 2005) and always will devote at least one full day to assisting with the cleanup.  This is one thing I wish all chasers would do, and feel we all should do, considering we intentionally place ourselves in these areas of greatest impact and often times benefit from doing so.  Regardless of the other ways we help, I still think it's the least we can do...but that's just me.  

This post is long enough.  But, I just simply wanted to share my personal viewpoints on the contents contained herein to help those who might misinterpret them.  Thanks for taking the time to read it.  Hope all have a great rest of the day!

Thanks for your interest in my work, Tony. I appreciate it.

Hey, folks! Haven't been here in a while. Just wanted y'all to know my show is premiering at 9 pm EDT (8 pm CDT) Sunday 15 September on Science Channel. It starts with a bang-- a double episode that brings you with me into the eye of Cat-5 Hurricane MICHAEL. Let me know what you think!

Here's the on-air promo:
 

On 3/25/2019 at 8:24 AM, wxeyeNH said:

Some of you know Josh Morgerman an avid Hurricane chaser and who is part of the AMWX community. I met him years ago at one of the AMWX get-togethers.  Really nice guy.  Last year he teamed up with a UK producer and created the new series Hurricane Man.  A crew traveled with Josh as he traveled the globe in pursuit of tropical cyclones.  The first episode aired on British cable last night.  I understand it is really good.  Lots of epic footage.  A US cable channel just picked it up but it's not 100% finalized so Josh can't say who they are but he did say it's one of the major channels most people get.  Should be a good show.  I think Josh has chased more tropical cyclones than anyone else in the world.  That is quite a feat!

Thanks, Gene!

My show, Hurricane Man, is broadcasting in a bunch of countries now, including the UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, etc. In the USA, it'll premiere on Science Channel in September. It was going to be June, but that's a dead zone in terms of TV. The network really digs the show and decided they wanted to have it as part of their big fall primetime lineup, so they rescheduled it. I'll announce the premiere date as soon as I know it.

On 3/25/2019 at 8:27 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

He knows his stuff.  I worry whenever he chases some of the huge ones.   

Thanks, man.

On 3/25/2019 at 8:28 AM, dendrite said:

Lisa has showed me a few of the trailers. Josh is a science guy, but he definitely has a flair for the dramatic too.

Well... The lead dude on an action-adventure TV show needs to be... expressive.

I might also add that I do find myself in legitimately dramatic situations-- like, you know, Cat 5s in the jungles of the Philippines. It's not like I'm hamming it up in 40-knot winds and drizzle in Myrtle Beach.

On 3/25/2019 at 9:10 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah he loves it. Josh knows his shit too...he is probably exactly how you would want to model yourself as a chaser if you intend to chase high-end damaging winds. He meticulously researches every angle going into a storm. I helped him plan a few back in the day over a decade ago...he would seek opinions on everything from the actual storm to who has been near the chase zone for staging...so that definitely helps in minimizing risk. 

Thx, Will. I've taken some dumb risks over the years and I've had a few brushes with death-- but, hey, I'm still here after 28 years of chasing around the globe, so I'm doing something right.

P.S. I miss our collaborations. You used to be one of my go-to guys.

On 3/25/2019 at 9:21 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Great back story by Joshs support crew and camera folks on what it took to follow him into hell and back. 

My crew was amazing. There were actually three crews. When I first went to England to meet them, I was worried as hell-- these folks had never been in a hurricane, and I was thinking, "Holy crap, can they handle this?" But I trained them on what to expect and how to survive, and they were very brave. They never freaked out or complained-- even as I took 'em in to the cores of multiple Cat 5s (Super Typhoon MANGKHUT and then MICHAEL). They kept their heads down and got the shots we needed to create awesome TV. I'm damn proud of the show.

In case anyone's curious, here's the promo they used to promote the show in the United Kingdom for this premiere this past spring:

And here's my video from WILLA. This was my coolest, naughtiest—and stupidest—chase of the year, as I drove into the eyewall at the very last minute to make sure I penetrated the eye (which I did). You'll notice WILLA's core was extremely turbulent, with violent gusts and frequent lightning (unusual in hurricanes). The calm eye lasted about a half hour and was very sharply defined. Notice how the wind seems loudest and most intense just before the eye—as if the inner ring was the very strongest part—and also how the winds come roaring back very suddenly starting at 7:44 pm.

Wow, I want to say thanks to all you guys for posting all the WILLA porn as it came ashore. This was a pedal-the-metal kind of chase and I didn't have much time to collect any imagery-- so it's awesome to find the treasure trove of stuff in this here thread.

WILLA was my best chase of the year-- the one I'm most proud of. Chasing without radar is a bitch-- it's like chasing blindfolded, because IR images are so coarse and there's major parallax displacement-- so punching the eye requires more skill, more finesse. I deployed sensors (and collected high-quality data) at three locations along the landfall zone, and managed to perfectly nail the eye with a final, risky position adjustment that had me driving into the eyewall. (Yeah, yeah, it was stupid-- whatever.) WILLA's core was surprisingly violent-- with frequent lightning and the sound of a train.

This here infographic summarizes my work on WILLA. I deployed the sensors at Locations B and C in advance, then rode out the cyclone's core at Location A. (That's why the data trace for Location A is shortest-- I got there last.) Notice I was able to estimate the eye dimensions (12 n mi diameter) and boundaries via eyewitness interviews afterward.

P.S. I should be releasing my WILLA video in the next week or so.

On 10/17/2018 at 7:16 PM, Windspeed said:

Nice charted pressure vs distance relationship/comparison by Josh Morgerman [mention=19]hurricanejosh[/mention] between two of his Kestrel instruments, seperated by 3.7 miles. One left at his original chase location recorded 939.7 mb. It remained inside the eyewall. A second he had inside the hotel at his final chase position that measure 923.2 mb just inside the western periphery of the eye. A difference of 16.5 mb in 3.7 miles or 4.46 mb per mile. That is probably not exact as the pressure drop probably increased from point B to A. At any rate, that aligns pretty well to the last 919 mb center fix by recon at landfall, though central pressure may have actually dropped a mb or two lower as landfall was underway. Regardless, that is an impressively tight pressure gradient. Post analysis should definitely be interesting.

 

 

Hey, thanks! I felt good about my work on MICHAEL: got in the eye, collected quality-controlled data from two locations in the core (one in the eye, one in the inner eyewall), got some crazy video, and got out in one piece. It wasn't my strongest cyclone of the season (that honor goes to Super Typhoon MANGKHUT in the Philippines), nor was it my favorite chase of the season (that would be Hurricane WILLA in Mexico), but it was definitely one of my top chases of 2018.

On 3/25/2018 at 7:48 AM, bowtie` said:

Nice eye candy. Is that your footage before the head-banging started, or is it stock footage from someone else?

The calm intro shots of L.A. are licensed stock footage! I don't do that kinda fancy photography!

17 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

Haha nice work, Josh! I headbanged a little. Good luck on your chases this year. May they be as successful as 2018, though hopefully less witnessing to devestation of densely populated areas.

 

Hey, thanks! Glad you liked it! Agreed-- it would be nice to see less human impact this coming season-- the last was a bit much.

Oh, hey. My latest YouTube channel ad. A lot of my recent chaseporn crammed into a minute. Enjoy!

Agreed Josh.

Ditto what Josh said. I've been following this whole story since we all were worried if JoMo was okay during the storm that day. I've continue to follow Jomo's thread here and it's truly amazing the progress Joplin has had since the tornado took part of that city off the map. Such a testament to that city and it's people for getting done what needed to be done even though it was so much easier to give in to despair with the overwhelming task they had at hand. I would love to visit someday because there are some truly remarkable people there. They should all be so very proud of the fine example they have established for how disaster recovery should be handled. Bravo Joplin!

Thank you-- but to be clear, I had equal praise for our federal disaster response. The people of Joplin deserve credit-- and so, too, does our federal government and this application of our federal tax dollars. It is a win all around.

It's cool to see Joplin bouncing back like this. It's really a model of disaster recovery. As Californians, we were not in any way affected by this disaster. But I think as Americans we're all proud to see the federal government-- and federal taxpayer dollars-- going toward such a noble and worthy causes: rebuilding American communities and infrastructure. I think this is a good illustration of the federal system at work: we're here to support each other and pick each other up in times of need.

I never want to feel that again. Seriously. Moderate, violent, I don't are what you want to call it, I'm not hung up on that. All I know is it scared the shot out of me as our entire office on the 10th floor shook. We hauled ass out of that building. Downtown us a mess (traffic wise). For this area, this was pretty big.

To be clear... It was a significant event for anywhere. When something that size happens in L.A. metro, it's a big deal and it causes a commotion.

it's predictable, is all. none of us were talking about the actual scale when saying violent.. you probably knew that.

Everyone else was interested to see the MM scale and put the event in perspective. For some reason, it's bothering you. Sorry. Don't look at it.

Some ceiling fixtures partially fell and a couple of things were tipped over in my cube but nothing worse that that. Pictures fell off the walls at home but no biggie

That's pretty good, though. Pictures coming off the wall is a threshold indicator for me-- that it was a good jolt.

Was not trying to make fun of you either in a later post. Thanks for providing that info, interesting and informative.

You're welcome.

We would not even be having this convo if it was violent as termed by USGS since many of us would be under rubble. I get the interest in sharing the wealth but there are some things that are predictable in life and one is Californians mocking others earthquake understanding abilities.

Who was mocking anyone? Seriously, dude-- relax.

You guys had a significant event and I thought I'd share the stuff that we talk about in CA after quakes. No insult intended. Yikes.

Sorry if posted before:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/se/082311a/us/index.html

Based on how folks are describing it, this map looks exactly right. The couple of spots of yellow don't surprise me: 5.9 is pretty good, and the quake was shallow, so I'd expect some hard jolts right near the epicenter.

What impresses me most about this quake is the really large coverage of felt shaking. Like I said above (or in another thread), quakes in CA don't have such wide aerial coverage like this-- except for the really bad ones, they tend to be more localized.

Californians always have a field day when quakes happen in non quake areas. I've felt plenty ... It was 'violent' for a few seconds by our standards.

If you're referring to me-- since I'm the only Californian in this thread (): I'm not making fun of the event. It was obviously significant. I felt people would be interested to see the MM scale to understand where this event falls compared with other quakes, and also to learn that "violent" actually means specific things when discussing quakes.

Based on that scale, I'd call it moderate.

Based on the descriptions in these threads, that sounds about right-- in the IV-V range.

It''s when you get up into oranges and reds (VII and above) that it starts getting kind of insane.

I see folks using the word "violent" a lot.

That's actually a semi-technical term with a specific meaning-- i.e., that the quake produced MM IX shaking or higher. Usually in violent shaking, you have kitchen cupboards and refrigerators flying open and emptying and buildings collapsing and things like that. I don't think this quake produced violent shaking.

Here's an entry about the MM scale: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercalli_intensity_scale

this was pretty standard to me though it's been a while now since i've felt one that big. often you get a slower/nicer roll then a big shock after a bit. same thing here.

i hit the doorway right away.. many here seemed to think it might be a bomb or something (DC!). not too bad, tho the walls started making noise and i briefly imagined the building going down...

I've been in a bunch of quakes, and like weather events, each one is really unique-- feels completely different. The Northridge quake was extremely violent and very vertical-- you really felt things going up and down, in a fast, jerky motion. We had one a year or two ago that was mellow and horizontal-- like slipping on ice-- it just felt like everything was sliding. Each one is its own thing.

It also depends on the depth. This one is pretty shallow, so you get less waves and more rumble, in terms of how it feels. The wavey ones are brutal.

We might be talking about different things. P and S waves cause two different types of motion and are used to locate the earthquake's center: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_wave

Re: shallow quakes... The shallow ones tend to have a sharper, edgier feel, I've found.