jwilson

8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Think we will ever see a snowfall map that looks something like this? Bullseye

If we ever get a tropical storm formed during the winter months that leaks up here, I'd say maybe.  Given the state of climate change, I'd say we're probably not too far off from something like that occurring, but the question will be whether it's cold enough to support snow.  Even at a 10:1 ratio, 5" of rain is 50" of snow.  That's one heck of a storm.

Well, it's definitely still raining.  Are there any areas in particular to avoid, more prone to flooding?

7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Last nights eps, but still hold true today. Rapid intensification with landfall very uncertain. Its such a strange situation with that steering ridge. I used the histroical storm mapper and Flo  is in uncharted territory. Not a whole lot of storms can be where she is and make it to the coast. 

 

P.S. i love the amount of activity that is happening in this forum right now. Welcome back!

If I was a betting man, I'd wager it is more likely to skim the coast and mostly push out to sea.  That said, no doubt anything is possible right now.

7 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

What part of Allegheny County ?

South Hills area.  I guess I'm on the border of a bunch of different municipalities (Mt. Lebanon, Castle Shannon, Bethel Park).

Well, just finished moving recently, now residing in Allegheny county.

4th floor apartment has a nice view off to the north and east; sadly, I'll miss the best views incoming from the west, but maybe I can grab some decent observations for once.  In winter, not sure what the big differences will be, as I know the warm tongue does tend to drift this far north.  Maybe slightly more lake effect accums.

Might be looking at a lot of rain in the short-term.  Who knows yet what Florence will do.  Here's WPC estimates currently:

I don't mind transient warmth in winter so much, say a day or two in between pattern flexes.  I'm not a huge fan, however, of two to three weeks of the doldrums.  Maybe we have once chance as the "new" pattern shuffles, but it doesn't look all that promising right now.

At least as I understand it, the TD can't count until you've become a runner, and you can't become a runner until you complete the process of the catch.  If you're going to the ground as you catch the ball, you need to control the ball through the ground (no ground-assisted movement) or you can't complete the process of the catch, and in turn you can't become a runner.

The rule is extremely convoluted, but it isn't the first time someone has been screwed by it.  If the rule is called consistently, that's probably all you can ask for.

My issue is whether they could truly overturn the call on the field.  Replay evidence has to be 100%, zero doubt, conclusive.  I think it's close, but that's not zero doubt.  This is from an objective POV, by the way, as I'm not really a Steelers fan (sorry folks).

I need to move to Mammoth Lakes, CA.  They're looking at another 3-6 feet of snow after getting something like 10 feet last week.  Wouldn't have to kill myself model watching all the time when you seasonally get what we average locally over a decade or more.

So does that 4/5 day bullseye "jinx" continue?  Didn't we have 2-3' a couple days ago, and now we are getting threatened by possible cloudy skies?  Let's hope we can bounce back from this and have a better February.

I don't post in this subforum much anymore because I moved years ago, but I still "lurk" frequently (split time with the Pittsburgh threads essentially).  Though there is a decent chance this will be my home forum again within the next 6 months.

This topic has come up on occasion, maybe once or twice a year.  IMHO, I think generally it may make more sense to keep them apart.  This forum is certainly plenty active when there is weather to discuss, I think, but the reality is this winter is dead for the time being.  Other than the larger "macro" pattern, there's nothing really to talk about.  And who knows if we see anything favorable this season.  It just doesn't lend itself to great discussion.  I'm sure other forums are more active because of more users.  I don't know if that matters to others; I can say it doesn't matter to me.

With NYC being as big as it is I can only imagine it swallowing up the Philly folks, perhaps making it difficult to separate the two.  Eastern is a distant memory so I can't say I remember much about it and how we coexisted.  I suppose if people really don't like it here they can attempt to generate more discussion or visit the other subforums, perhaps even the "new" Philly weather forums (though I haven't been there myself so I can't comment on it further).

When speaking to merging, wouldn't merging with the Mid-Atlantic make just as much sense, if not more?  I think Philly and Baltimore's long-term yearly snowfall averages are closer to each other than Philly and New York (though none are very far apart).  Though D.C. is quite a drop-off from these three.  I suppose an argument could be made either way.

Perhaps we just merge them all and have individual threads for each city.  I admit it is somewhat unfortunate the true "weather talent" (actual meteorologists) is spread so thin, having to traverse multiple subforums to access all the different opinions.  Then again I understand much of this talent only offers discussion for their individual locales.  Not sure if it would change their process if all the locations were merged.

TL;DR: Didn't intend for this to be so long.  I'll keep visiting regardless of what happens with the forum configuration.  Prefer separate but okay with a merger whether it be NYC or MID-ATL & PHL.

Yep, snow is over here.  Looks like some heavier returns to move in, but at this point it is 38F and I don't think we'll cool down to return to snow.  Dry slotted + rain.  A double whammy (at least for some of us).

It hasn't been the worst winter in history, but just about everything that could go wrong this year has to prevent any bigger storm in this area.  I think I've had just enough disappointment for a year, ready to return to the golf course.

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, aye gents?

It would be nice if we could get a region-wide bullseye on a storm for once.  Seems we're always too far north or too far south, or if not the whole region, at least half of it is out of the game.

Yeah this result is pretty much what I expected after yesterday.  Storm looks great for ~10 days (minus a few off runs) and then in the final 48 hours, it cuts north by 100+ miles.  This is a true 40+ north winter, just isn't our year.  There are always chances in February, but at this point the pattern is what it is: I'll be writing off all storms until we get into the 24-hour window and all looks safe (with a large cushion for misfires).