GrindOutWins

Guess we're just going to delete posts as we see fit now. Another one who absolutely despises freedom of speech. 

Just now, BxEngine said:

Your freedom is now over for the night my man. End of the political bs on this side of the forum. 

My freedom is, of course, still well intact but you're also free to play authority figure on your own forums whenever it tickles your fancy. 

Just now, Rjay said:

"Dumb"

You've taken a "vaccine" that you admit doesn't stop contraction or spread of the disease. I'm dumb? 

Just now, Rjay said:

Expect to grind out some loses there though.  

Not sure how one can take a loss on a weather forum but...at least I'm capable of granting myself the freedom to do what I wish. And I'm not even "vaccinated". 

Just now, Rjay said:

Lol.  If you don't understand the vaccine that's not my problem.  

I don't have any problem. I'm not currently altering my behavior whatsoever in light of a "pandemic". You are, and you're the one who's taken the "vaccine". 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It makes no sense if you don't care about others.  

I thought getting the vaccine was what one had to do in order to demonstrate that they care about others. Now, we have to continue to isolate ourselves and let each other "be", even after vaccination? Why? Either the vaccine prevents the illness or it does not. 

Just now, Rjay said:

Of course I am.  I can still catch and spread it to someone who's not.  I try to avoid those situations being in healthcare.

How is it a vaccine if even after receiving it you can still catch the disease and spread it to others? 

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

And…we’re done. 

Why would a vaccinated person be waiting on "post pandemic" to simply get together with some friends? That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. 

Just now, BxEngine said:

Or we can let others do whatever they want

You would imagine this would include commenting on what they want, you know? No harm in someone reading something they might not entirely agree with or even disagree with entirely. That's the point of a discussion. 

Just now, Rjay said:

You do you.  Let others be.  There's plenty of stuff I'm not doing until this shit is over.  

Oh...you're not vaccinated? 

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 Let people be.  

On a discussion forum? Um...ok, I guess. I just haven't seen anyone express that they're waiting on "post pandemic" to do what they want since about 15+ months ago. 

1 hour ago, rclab said:

If there is ever a post pandemic forum get together, several of us can do a NYMetro skit, written by Will. After the performance we all might have to find a new forum and possibly a bail bondsman. As always …

You know...you're more than welcome to get together with friends and family tonight or even tomorrow if you'd like. You don't have to wait until Fauci or someone gives you the green light. 

That's really what it is, I guess. I'm tired of sweating like crazy every time I leave the house. Not the case this early evening, however. 70 and low humidity. Absolutely perfect. 

Needs to stay gone. It's September 10th. Time for crisp, fall weather. I can't understand the mindset of someone who wants excessive heat after August. 

Don't have any interest in seeing 80+ again this entire year. It's time for fall weather. 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
802 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-090800-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210909T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Rockland-
802 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, including
  the following areas, in northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen,
  Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western
  Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. In
  southeast New York, Orange and Rockland.

* Until 4 AM EDT Thursday.

* A cold frontal passage will produce a round of showers and
  thunderstorms tonight through the early morning hours. Due to wet
  antecedent conditions, the area is susceptible to flooding.

* Locally heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DW

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC021-027-039-071-079-087-105-111-090400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0491.210908T2355Z-210909T0400Z/

NY
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIA             DUTCHESS            GREENE
ORANGE               PUTNAM              ROCKLAND
SULLIVAN             ULSTER
$$

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC021-027-039-071-079-087-105-111-090400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0491.210908T2355Z-210909T0400Z/

NY
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIA             DUTCHESS            GREENE
ORANGE               PUTNAM              ROCKLAND
SULLIVAN             ULSTER
$$

...a very hot and humid September night out there currently. You can smell the moisture in the air. Should be interesting to see what happens when the line develops. 

Are there no fall/winter forecasts posted on this site? 

43 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So when the topic started, anticipated a rather warm first week of Sept - overall it will not be.  TC moistures were anticipated and both are going to occur, however in a huge reverse order with IDA almost 5 days sooner than originally expected and Noras leftover PW about 4-5 days later than expected.

Worthy I think to pay attention to developments after the 17th in the western Atlantic to Gulf Coast. Maybe this is premature so I'll follow with probably no GMEX TC related thread post for at least a week.

 

Finally, at the behest of WPC-NWS,  they prefer all of us on the same page and not naming these TC's up here as remnant (despite IDA being half to 65% of what it was striking Louisiana).  Any future TC posts from myself will somehow migrate over to Post TC or TD.  That will take that issue off the table as a hindrance to messaging, if indeed it was significant. 

Talking rather semantics here in all reality. There have been extreme events over the years that were the result of "remnants". The simple fact is that there are clearly many attempts at play to paint the picture that the NWS was negligent and delinquent when it comes to this most recent event. As I've said before: I'm always the first to jump on the NWS for a blown forecast. That said...of all the "blown" forecasts over the years in the northeastern quadrant of the US - I don't recall any that resulted in any loss of life or widespread damage. Most of the major events were forecast pretty well in advance. 

With this previous event, the wording was clear, well out in advance of the threat, and accurate. The NWS is by no means to blame for the loss of life in this historic event. If people tell you that 5-10" of rain is coming in a short period of time, along with tornados and waterspouts - pay some attention to the developments that day. 

Absolutely epic thread. The scary thing about this event at this point - in today's realm of increasingly intense short lived events - is that a single EF4 or EF5, or widespread outbreak, is possible in a highly and densely populated area. Seems like just a matter of time. Dallas, Oklahoma City, St. Louis, Chicago, one of the larger FL metro areas. 

Yeah, again - I'm always quick to pull the trigger and say so if the NWS screws up. I don't know what more of a forecast someone would have wanted. It was quite accurate and way out ahead of the event with plenty of warning. People just didn't think 5-10"+ rainfall and tornados would come to fruition but..it did. 

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The top hourly rainfall figures were:

NYC: 3.47”

EWR: 3.62”

Right. "Maybe" one or two other events like that since 1900. 

One question: Why does August and September of 2011 (?) get lost in the shuffle? I spent a ton of time driving all across orange, putnam, and westchester counties that late summer. There was another clear 5"+ rainfall over the entire northeast. Anyone remember this? 

edit: There was actually a huge rainstorm in October followed by "Snowtober" a week later (2011). I can't remember weather this wild since then but I definitely know that the entirely of that period I'm talking about didn't cause the level of devastation that this event just did. 

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The question is are they happening more frequently now? Well, to answer that in a different way, our average precip seems to be going way up if you compare 30 year precip norms now vs let's say a few decades ago.  I hate it.  There is nothing I dislike more than sticky, muggy tropical humid weather lol.

It hasn't led to a winter event corresponding with some of these flooding events in 11 years now. That's the one big caveat. I don't know what else can be deduced from that except that eventually there's going to be a winter event on the scale of what we just saw. Eventually. 

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If this occurred 40 miles NW, nobody would be talking like you are. It’s unfortunate it all came together over NY metro.

I don't know if that's entirely true. You're saying "if this occurred 40 miles NW" - NW of where? Effects were felt from the Philly Metro on east, throughout almost all of NJ, the entirety of the greater NYC region, into the Lower and Mid Hudson Regions, up into the Capital District, east into Vermont, all of CT, all of MA, and parts of Eastern Maine. This wasn't a localized event. It was the complete opposite and that's what's most remarkable about it. You don't see sudden, flash flooding and wedge tornadoes spread over the entire Northeast like that anywhere in recorded, modern weather history. What non winter event was even remotely close to this? 

All of this, combined with the death/casualty toll - as well as cost - is something that's going to make this one for the books. In the northeast, you don't expect things to change that drastically, that quickly. It's just once or twice in a lifetime. 

edit: May 30/31, 1998: This was probably the most extreme, most widespread non winter event any of us can remember in the Northeast. What happened yesterday is just so far beyond that it's incredible. I honestly didn't think I'd see something like what just occurred in my lifetime. Not throughout the entire northeast. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?