Gulfcoaster11

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~170 minutes per frame .

~70 minutes per frame .

Man, all storms are lopsided wind intensity wise when comparing the east side to west side of the eye, but Ida will be especially lopsided. Riding that ridge to the east is really expanding and intensifying the east side winds, add on shear beating up the west side for most of its adolescence, and also a fast moving storm (forward speed +actual relative velocity = East side winds... forward speed and northerly winds in same direction), this is going to be catastrophic for those on the east side, and unfortunately the east side has 10x more people and monetary assets than the west side. This set up has just been worse case in every way. I fear Ida is on a mission.

Little western wobble, which I expect to be shortly followed by a northern wobble, then a complete wrapping of convection. RI is not a gradual process, so often, it’s not there, not there, not there, then BOOM, it’s on. That’s how this will go down. Like a flip of a switch, everything clicks and it’s on like donkey Kong. This will happen sooner rather than later, like I said, things are happening.

Winds will take an hour or two to catch up but I expect atleast 2mb drop every recon pass over the next 12 hours (between 10am CDT and 10pm CDT on 8/28), and then the next 6 hours after that will be the peak intensification period. I expect it to be somewhere around 965mb 12 hours from now (10pm CDT on 8/28), the next 6 hours after that, up until sunrise Sunday morning, will be the difference between a really bad storm, and a historic storm. I think between 10pm tonight and 6 am tomorrow, it could drop up to 30mb, but probably closer to 25mb. 940mb-945mb by sunrise tomorrow. .

WV

Yep, pressure is about to begin its free fall. As I mentioned, it is crossing the 25th parallel now, about to ride the warm current all the way to the launching pad loop. 25th parallel highlighted with the white line, we are now entering the danger zone. .

RI was never really going to occur until it crossed the 25th parallel. Conditions are all go now, getting into the warm, and deep warm waters, shear is negligible, core is really becoming organized, outflow is set up. All systems go, Ida will look veryyyyy different in 6 hours. .