wizards93939

Yesterday's 12z run had this as a much stronger tropical cyclone than the current state and today's 12z initialization. If its overamplifying it initially, that's why it survives the track. However if you continue to decrease the cyclone intensity within each run, it will suddenly poof the system in the Caribbean . This is due the mid level vort and low level vort not really established, then you add the extra trade winds and they further decouple then they try to go over terrain ( which can slow them down and organize) , but the shear near the US is not favorable so that then negates it.

Gfs is good with tropical cyclones when it has the Ukmet on its side. When it doesn't go with the Ecmwf. Seen this with Irma , Harvey and Issias and other storms recently.

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 50.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 01.07.2021 0 10.1N 50.4W 1011 33 0000UTC 02.07.2021 12 11.5N 54.2W 1010 35 1200UTC 02.07.2021 24 12.5N 59.1W 1009 41 0000UTC 03.07.2021 36 14.2N 64.5W 1008 42 1200UTC 03.07.2021 48 16.1N 69.6W 1008 42 0000UTC 04.07.2021 60 17.3N 73.8W 1009 37 1200UTC 04.07.2021 72 18.6N 76.8W 1008 40 0000UTC 05.07.2021 84 19.5N 79.6W 1009 34 1200UTC 05.07.2021 96 21.0N 82.5W 1012 32 0000UTC 06.07.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING