Jump to content

OKwx_2001

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    69

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by OKwx_2001

    2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    7 hours ago, ldub23 said:

    Sounds good  but something  is stopping anything  of  note developing. I  have read  in several places we will be  back in a suppressive  phase  in Sept. Seems  like an awful small window now  for  a hurricane to form.

    It's not even peak season yet. It's not like August first hits and then it's a cane fest. There's a reason why many consider 8/20 to be the start of peak season. In the last decade there have only been 3 storms before 8/20 to get stronger than Cat 1, and none of those were majors. I've got a feeling a lot of your posts on here claiming this season is going to be inactive are going to age very very poorly...

    • Like 3

    Tropical Storm Fred

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    12z Euro tries to clear the center from the coast by tomorrow morning and while it avoids Cuba, it brings it further east over Florida.

    I don’t buy the stronger HWRF solution. It has been rushing intensification from what I’ve seen with Fred so far, and it can certainly take a while for a robust center to regenerate, much less become vertically aligned. And this is expected to happen in the presence of shear?

    Possible, but unlikely. The 24 hours are critical to defining the ceiling of this system IMO, which I still think is relatively low.

    There's definitely quite a bit of possibilities. I think we'll be looking at a remnant low trying to get going in the gulf. That being said, if it can get to the gulf without much interaction with Cuba, I think it may be able to make a run for strong TS maybe even a Cat 1 hurricane. But if it gets tangled up with Cuba then there might not be anything left of it

    Tropical Storm Fred

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said:

    Hwrf will be right in this case, and also underdone. Significantly underdone for upper gulf coast

    I highly doubt that. We'll have to see if it survives the islands first. Not to mention a major hurricane in the first half of August is very rare. There hasn't been one since Dean in 2007. 

    Conditions may be favorable, but I don't think it's going to be a major. Still needs to be watched though.

    2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 minute ago, AmpedVort said:

    I have no clue as well. Some discussion on the topic "match" the numbers to a logical meaning. Like a game or something... Obviously somebody is throwing wrecking balls in here but it is not me believe me! :)

    Well I came here for a discussion and that's tough when I see you posting nonsense like every 30 seconds 

    • Thanks 4

    2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, AmpedVort said:

    2x6x4 = 48

    "in 48 Hours"

    F264 is a code for a special EF-4 WIND hope this does not turn into a monster! The formula is subtract 2 from 6 = 4 and check if result matches the last number if it matches then EF-4 (range mid-first up to last number) winds are possible within the COC of a TC

    Learned this back in the days where IT certifications were talking about SUPERCOMPUTERS so they taught us SOCIAL ENGINEERING AND CRYPTIC BIOS POST CODES...

    Keep in mind also UV and RI and a missing S signifying VIRU (S) like infected vapor producing circuit (NOT A BIGGIE)

    image.png.cf53ace5fb27253a409bd6832b4f3eac.png

    What is this post? I have no idea what I just read lol

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    16 hours ago, ldub23 said:

    GFS continues to show a  hyper active el nino like east  pac. My guess is  1 or  2 very  weak quickly dissapating storms this  month. 2 or  3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont  usually have too much of  interest. Maybe oct  will be  busier  but  by then winter  is  coming and its  just  not that  interesting.

    Come on now just because one model shows an active EPAC and one guy lowers his numbers a bit does not mean the season is cancelled. Early August isn't usually very active in the Atlantic anyway. Later in the month things start to pick up. 

    Not to mention the GFS showed major after major in the EPAC last year and that didn't happen and so far it's not happening this year either, although the system behind TD11-E might have a better chance to get strong.

    And this isn't even an El Niño season lol

    Central & Eastern Pacific Thread

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

    I agree with you. Someone needs to call out this page for spreading false information. 

    Screenshot_20210717-120834_Facebook.jpg

    They do that all the time. They come up with their own intensity estimates that many times have zero data to support it. I don't pay any attention to them.

    • Like 2

    Severe Weather May 26th- 28th 2021

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    Tomorrow still looks like a big severe weather day but not as big as it did earlier. Might see a wind-driven moderate somewhere but I think they'll hold off until the 13z or 1630z outlook for that, if even at all. I think morning convection could be a big issue but then again it's late May so who knows. We'll have to see if we get any clearing later in the day. 

    Severe Weather May 26th- 28th 2021

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, OKTWISTER said:

    Latest from NWS Tulsa for Thursday. 

      

    
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
147 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
147 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending by early evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

There is a limited severe storm risk mainly across southeast
Oklahoma this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main threat.
Locally heavy rainfall fell across portions of southeast Oklahoma
this afternoon, shifting into northwest Arkansas. Another round of
heavy rain is possible with the afternoon storms over the same
areas. Thus, there is limited flash flood potential thru early
evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY thru MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Storm coverage on Wednesday will be isolated at best and during
the afternoon, mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected.

A high impact weather event is expected from Thursday afternoon
and night. Severe storms are expected to form ahead of a cool
front across northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and then grow
into a complex and move into western Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma Thursday night. The initial storms across northeast
Oklahoma will pose the threat for tornadoes, very large hail to 2
inches in diameter or greater, and damaging winds. Due to the very
unstable airmass expected to be in place, and the potential for a
boundary to be draped across the region, there is potential for a
strong tornado. After storms congeal into a complex, wider swaths
of damaging winds will become the main severe concern. The severe
threat on Friday afternoon will be confined mainly to southeast
Oklahoma ahead of a cool front.

While storm chances remain in the forecast thru the weekend and
into early next week, severe weather is not expected during this
time.

Repeated heavy rainfall on top of saturated soils may lead to
an increasing flood threat later this week in addition to the
severe weather potential.

    Wow that's one of the more bullish ones I've seen from them at this range. Usually they are a bit more on the conservative side. Definitely concerning and I think we'll see a wind-driven moderate risk (tornado risk might be lower but still significant) by Day 1. 

    General severe weather discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

    Yeah, it's mostly the CFSv2 that is trying a sequence from the Dakotas to Texas, but most other models are showing nothing of that sort . . . 

    The next focus of attention for Tornado Alley Severe Weather starts around May 15th . . . Even though that the model agreement is too uncertain for this to happen, I always watch ANY chances, because I've seen it happen on days where it was supposed to be a Marginal . . . 

    Many Severe weather days have been over-performing this year, especially in Texas . . . & I don't want to take ANY chances with Oklahoma weather . . . 

    I think it'll get more active but it'll likely change between now and then. A little over a week or so ago, it looked like this week could have been active but here we with nothing but cold in most of the Plains...

    Meanwhile, could be some massive hail in S TX today

×
×
  • Create New...