nsof

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc big hit

Temps in 20s for entirety of storm so likely more 12:1 or 15:1 ratios (Wish I put any stock in the CMC) 

1 minute ago, jaysoner said:

Oh God he's the wurst.  He's literally 2000  in a human costume.

 

Really tho has got his own agenda never listen to him

Respectfully disagree. Man puts out his forecast and sticks to it, doesn't sh*t talk other Mets, and explains the processes better than most meteorologists. Learned a lot from following him. To each their own though.  

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

It's been showing up on different runs....quite annoying if you fall under it.

33F 

Don't take that verbatim its probably a feedback error from that purple band to the west

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

Mt holly seems bullish, wonder if Philly and some areas in NJ see winter storm warnings later based on this map as I believe criteria is 4”.

 

They pointed at some confidence that there will be mesoscale banding in CNJ or coastal region that gets a solid 6 inches. Worry that if that happens it causes Philly Metro/west of I95 to only get 1-2, similar to last storm. Hope that band doesn't materialize and we just get a region wide ~4

Winter of sleet for Philly folk. Rough year. Maybe next time

2 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

48 hours out.. how could this possibly fail.. with that run I think we are safe

00z runs should be a good tell with new data and samplings. 18z fun to look at though 

4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I may be I'm losing my mind but I don't remember only a WWA for/a 2-4" event. (if that stays)  And I don't remember a warning for 2-4" (again, if that stays)...it would freak people out. A Watch makes sense to me....tough call.

Lol not using your mind. This might help though. https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx#:~:text=Usually issued 6 to 18,for at least three hours.

Within 12 hours of the event, here is Mt. Holly's criteria FWIW

36 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Watches will put up in the 3pm - 4pm or so range. I don't think warnings...

Watches wouldn't make sense with the storm mainly being tonight-tomorrow morning. Will stay as WWA or be upgraded to a WSW. WSW criteria is also different for SEPA compared to SNJ so it will be interesting to watch.