MocoMike

6 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Just a bit slower I believe but I could be looking at it wrong.

Ok cool. I was like...what am I missing?

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FYI, not sure that's the best image he posted. It was the OP, not ENS and the WAA snow was still ongoing. I'd add another 1" - 3" to what the graphic 

0z v 6z 

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Can anyone show how the WAA piece looks on 6Z Euro ?  Curious how much of that total shown above comes Sunday.

I thought the thump looked more suppressed than 0z

6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th

Does the SER ahead of this system keep it from being suppressed?  When I look at this, I think it is going to cut.  Thoughts?

Last 24 hours of the Euro....Does it keep trending and go to our north or does the block do it's work?

10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Just saw a post in the banter thread from leesburg 04 that the 12Z  GEFS caved to the EPS.  Is this true? 

Hmm...from what I can tell, it did not. It actually looks a little better in the Pacific  than 0z, no? 

0z v 12z

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL that’s one of the best runs we’ve had for the gfs and the first thing said is what’s wrong with it. Time for me to do something else.

Um yeah. I thought the same thing! If you are looking for increased chances of at least seeing some snow (far better than what we have seen recently), it looks great! 

Love the retrograding L to the north on the GFS...interesting look lol

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

 I lurk a lot on here and I'd say the GEFS gets almost as much attention as the EPS.  If the EPS gets a bit more attention, its because it has superior verification scores.  I haven't looked but someone said that the GEPS agrees with the EPS.  So its definitely worth some concern.

I would agree with this...and was also thinking the GEPS was leaning more toward the EPS than the GEFS with the long range. I’d imagine a compromise in the middle could be possible....I also wonder if that period is more questionable given we would be approaching the period for impacts, if any, from the SSW?

You can see the EPS moving toward what PSU was mentioning with the ridge in the Pacific retrograding, the NAO weakening, and the trough dumping in the west with a SER popping...

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

So I understand that we've had solid teleconnections for awhile and it stinks that we haven't really scored during it, but my brain got set for January 20th on as the prime window and anything prior would be gravy. I guess many on here really wanted some gravy. Now if we don't start scoring some after January 20th then oh well, next year I guess.

My thoughts exactly.  It is encouraging that the period many have highlighted as our best chance is coming into view on guidance and does in fact look good.  I would have definitely loved some gravy, but it is not looking likely.  I am trying to step away from any expectations for next week because it just looks like heartbreak.  

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The only thing about that 500 map that I missed picking up on from the 6z version is I wonder if that suggests a Miller B pattern given the deepest 500 anomalies are centered north of our latitude.  @CAPE - would we want those focused a bit further south?

It does definitely look more NS dominated during this period, so I imagine a Miller B screw job would be the biggest threat.  All about getting that dig so the transfer happens below us.  With the blocking in the ideal location, one can only hope. That said...this period, as others have been mentioning, looks like our best chance at getting something to come together; given temps look to finally cooperate.