DHS@ABE

On December 14th New Jersey had 4,800 new COVID cases with a population of 9 million, Pennsylvania had 9,500 cases with a population of 13 million, Florida had 8,500 cases with a population of over 21 million. Florida currently has about 1/2 the COVID cases that the Northeastern US states do. The recent fatalities mimic the same pattern. Enjoy Florida! Restaurants, schools and bars open. Masks are optional. Less COVID.

The 12Z GFS MOS has above freezing surface temperatures at JFK for the entire event.

The NWS is forecasting 15-23" for my location in the Lehigh Valley, however looking at the 12 Z NAM I'm going with 9".

I don't understand the NWS forecasts at all. The potential to bust a widespread 18-24" prediction in this scenario is very high, in my opinion.

I’m skeptical of the forecasts for higher snowfall amounts. The ECMWF was overly bullish 10 days ago. With a sub 28” low east of Newfoundland a more amplified trough in the baroclinic zone is going to need everything in place. In addition, there is a lot of Arctic, dry air to overcome. Without a well amplified trough closer to the coast I’m thinking the widespread 12”+ aren’t going to verify.