JoeSnowBOS

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Embarrassing map for someone paid to cover the weather

How so?

Just now, PhineasC said:

GFS doesn’t have a clue on this event. A total outlier now. 

You mean NAM outlier...

This storm is a miss...light stuff at best....

A weak sauce storm people!

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just hope that the few weenies that still use qpf to live and die with take heed at what the Mets and folks in the know are saying. There will be more qpf than modeled and there won’t be a subby zone like you’d see in a big wound up coastal. This will be a nice widespread 6+ deal. The one concern is coastal areas and BL temps. Hopefully those areas are ok . When these go out south of LI.. most folks win 

Lol - sounds good

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS suck worse or better?

Worse....non event mostly in SNE

Clown map...EURO is what seems most reasonable. Time will tell but don’t see this one being a big one based on trending guidance, with weight toward EURO

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

Where is Cantore going?

No one from TWC going to Boston from what they tweeted out.  cantore going to Allentown 

12 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

The DGEX and NGM running on the Commodore 64 in JoeSnowBOS's basement is in agreement.  But otherwise, not one other model looks like its in the GFS ballpark at the moment...

Gfs has trended slightly north but storm up the air stilll...if GFS fails I will be first to admit I hooked onto it way too quickly...time will tell Bristol 

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Seems like things are just becoming more unclear now not less. Dryslots, suppression, mixing all a possibility still. No bueno.

You are spot on.  As we get closer it becomes less clear! Although I think at this point decent totals south of pike with 6 inches at the pike, up to 12 down near 195.  North of pike is the screw zone I think.  3-6 mass pike to NH border

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Yes

No

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Doesn’t he have like 8-12 for BOS?

He has 6-12 for Boston but right near the 3-6 line, so usually means Boston at 6, but said he expects shifting and from what I can tell from his tweets, that shift would mean lesser totals.  But right now still 6–12 

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Listen Joe, the pros here know as much as he does.  And I was being honest and sincere...I was a lil confused by what he wrote?  But whatever.  You can sit there and think this is over with, but the rest of us are enjoying the chase and the twists and turns. 

Only saying Eric is very good.  Top notch forecaster.  I’m sure knowledgeable folks in these forums as well.  I love the chase just like everyone but also trying to give an opinion that I worry this could be a epic fail - has happened many times and worry big time about the northern cut off that the GFS shows and that other models have started shifting towards. 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not sure how to take that Eric Fisher quote? 

I would take it as he knows what he is talking about.  The NAM does come south.  It’s struggling with precip field but that will change and cut back as Eric alludes to.  

This one has bust written all over it.  GFS is south and has been.  Euro was a big hit but slowly starting a trend south toward GFS.  Yet some models still have clown snow maps.  Keeps the hope alive but in the end this will be one of those “man we followed this for days and all for not”

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

The EPS is the ensemble run. It has many individual model runs that are slightly perturbed to adjust for all scenarios. So the eps mean is the average of all individual runs. Where as the euro is one single run. The mean provides more confidence and changes less run to run. 

Further out yes but not as we get closer and closer 

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'll take a compromise among the NAM, RGEM, CMC, and Ukie. 

Lol the unreliable models we cheer for! Hahahaha

NAM way south with precipitation. All guidance starting to come down to the GFS solution.  All hail the GFS!! (If it is right in the end)

Forecasted slowly starting to introduce talk of heavy stuff missing massaxhusetts forecast area with maybe southern areas getting decent snow.  This has bust written all over it when the GFS pivoted and kept consistent last 2 days .  Wow - EURO looks likely that it was taken to school.  Still need to see what happens but wow 

Just now, PWMan said:

Man, GFS does not want it snow in CNE/NNE.

Even SNE! Barely any snow. Light event south of pike and dustings north of pike unless in SW SNE

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I just think he’s a newbie...hasn’t seen the GFS personality in this type of set up very often. 

We see in the end...hope GFS trends back toward EURo

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It actually went a hair NW at 18z

Hair NW but SE overall from prior runs

1 minute ago, SnowEMass said:

Is he trying to use reverse psychology on...the weather? 

Hmmmm..

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Joe,  it was just 24hrs ago the GFS crushed everybody...along with the other modeling. It was at 0z last night that it went off.  It’s still by itself for the most part.  

Fair point but 4 runs in a row of consistenty and sampling better with 0z runs...just saying GFS in its prime zone now and 4 straight runs and no model is trending NW, EURO has started its SE trend already...

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Joe snow from southie? Is he a yuppie? I'll have to take him out to a real dive and set him straight 

Lol - GFS most consistent model...tough to go against consistent...EURO may do full cave tonight with sampling better ...GFS will be crowned new king or if wrong EURO says get out of my house...battle Royale here!