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Irish

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  1. 57 minutes ago, wdrag said:
    My take based on all primary models through 00z-06z/14: Sunday afternoon-next Thursday I84-I95 corridors (17th-21st), a large storm will produce heavy rains NJ-se NYS-LI-CT-MA by Monday morning (roughly 1-3"), then abate and temporarily be very mild Monday. Then the precip "possibly" redevelops Tuesday or Wednesday as a period of mixed ice or wet snow from NJ-PA northward to NYC-Boston. Snow accumulations will be elevation dependent (as usual)... for now, the ensemble snow accumulations (snow depth change) are small... generally under an inch in our area. 
     
    Tue-Wed is fraught with uncertainty... does precip occur or not? If it does, then I have high confidence it would be wintry...just not sure if precip redevelops.  Ensembles are spreading out the wintry stuff a little further south.  EPS is much sharper with the trough here in NJ next Tuesday... that will be critical. If it's mushed out with wsw 5H flow instead of ssw flow, then part two is probably offshore.  Just too uncertain for me to express confidence on part two.
     
    Also, am aware that part one Sunday night-Monday won't be a nor'easter but instead probably an inside runner.
     
    Basis for wintry is scrolling through "24 hours snow depth change" on CMCE, EPS, GEFS. 
     
    Will check back Friday to see how this unfolds.  (as some say, am a Modelologist- it isn't like it was 30-35 years ago when two model runs/day and couple models to monitor-dig into--- now it's speeding through many general model ideas, counting on model intelligence to lead me-us down the right path)
     

     

    This is what I was mentioning earlier. The dude I was reading from another board, is a bright one, and he was all over the cold getting in here and producing wintery precip, while everyone else was saying all rain. Should be fun to track and see how it unfolds...

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