jculligan

Seems to be wrapping up here now. Just measured 5.7" with the last flakes coming down.

Measured 4" on the nose here in Jackson as of 8am. Currently 27F with light snow continuing. No indication of any mixing here.

4.0" here in Jackson as of 8am. Light snow and 26F right now. Beautiful.

Picked up 0.4" of new snow today. Would be negligible with an existing snowpack, but since we were previously bare it's nice to see a whitened ground again. Looks like another opportunity (locally) Thursday morning, then of course we wait to see what the weekend will bring.

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You've had lake snow events with quite a bit more than that since 2014. I think at least 4-5.

Yeah, I was wondering about that too!! I was thinking, "Has it really been that long since the city had a good one??" but I'm not super connected to western NY weather.

This is the first Christmas I have not spent in Buffalo since 2008. Picked a hell of a year to skip.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Welcome back! I remember you always posting when you came up around thanksgiving and christmas. Did you recently move to NH?

I was getting a little worried with how the models were trending but as Bumble pointed out these early season events with full length of the lake and above average lake temps usually overperform. The RGEM has been my favorite model for lake effect for a long time, its by far the most accurate.

Yes, I moved to New Hampshire in August. My new spot is at 1500' in the eastern White Mountains and averages 100-120"/year. It's a great spot for synoptic snowfall...USUALLY. We have struggled to get things going this year, but winter is long in these parts.

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I really appreciate your reports! I have family in Hamburg and I began telling them to expect 2-3 feet of snow back on Thursday. I am formerly 'kulaginman' operating under a new account, by the way lol.

I've been using the RGEM as my "go to" meso model recently, as that handled the recent synoptic event with insane mesoscale banding very well here in New England. If the RGEM is correct with the placement of the LES band...you should be solidly in the crosshairs until at least 5-6pm today. I would anticipate at least another 16-22" of snow in your location today. You are definitely pulling a three-footer out of this.

Enjoy it!! Yesterday's 3.34" of rain and 53-degree temps wiped out our meager snowpack here in New Hampshire.

3.34" ended up being the storm total rainfall in my location. Just narrowly pushed past the 11/30-12/1 event (3.33") to make this the largest precipitation event since I moved here in August. Too bad absolutely none of it was frozen.

It sounds like this event took an enormous toll on the mountains around here, as most of them are on delayed opening this morning. I've been skiing both on and off piste in NH for much of the last decade, and this is about as grim as I have seen this late into December. I managed to score some backcountry turns on Mount Cardigan last Wednesday thanks to the monster storm on 12/17 but this recent event has definitely eliminated any potential backcountry skiing for now. I think I'm heading over to Bretton Woods for some uphill laps on what's left of the piste later this morning.

Up to 3.18" of rain here in Jackson. My biggest single storm total since August was 3.33" on 11/30-12/1 so this has a fair chance of surpassing that. Temp down to 48F.

Up to 2.82" in the bucket now. Jackson Falls is raging.

Snowpack has been eradicated here. First time looking at bare ground since the morning of December 5th. Currently 53F with 2.36" of rain in the bucket so far.

Calling it 6.0" on the nose here. I'm going to ignore the numbers to my south and be content with two 6" events in the books prior to Christmas 

In all seriousness...what an incredible, historic event for central VT/NH. I can't imagine there have been many 36"+ events in the Lakes Region of NH. I know the March 2001 event has been discussed in the larger observation thread, but that moves too fast for me to keep up with!! Does anyone here know of any historical events that even remotely compare to today's event in the southern Lakes?

4.8" of arctic dust as of my last measurement, but that has now been topped off by an inch of pure fluff. Decent flake size in these final bands, so I'm thinking we'll just squeeze out another 6-incher before this is done. 8" OTG with a temp of 19F.

Calling it 4.8" as of 12:30pm. We had essentially one hour of what I would consider moderate snow from about 9-10am, then it's been a pretty steady 0.25-0.5"/hour type pace ever since. Currently 16F with steady light snow and barely any wind.

1.0" last hour, 4.0" total.

0.5" last hour. 3.0" total so far. Holding at 12 degrees. I'm jealous of the epicness of what's happening south of here, and I'm living vicariously through those of you in the Lakes region!! Still a very nice wintry morning up here.

0.7" last hour. 2.5" new.

2" so far in Jackson NH. Considering it was 15/-6 at 1AM I'm happy to see we're getting into this. Congrats to those of you getting crushed in the death band!!

It appears that the mid-level banding set up farther north than where even the northernmost model (RGEM/Canadian GEM) had it. These things are so tough to pin down. Yesterday I was thinking the jackpot would be along an axis from AQW-EEN-CON-SFM but radar trends would suggest it'll be more like a VSF-LCI-GYX axis. We'll see how things pivot over the course of the morning. Southern Lakes region of NH is getting crushed.

1.8" down so far with a temp of 11F. Happy to see we've overcome the dry air. Unbelievable numbers coming out of New York state - 40" in Endicott which is where I lived from 2007-2009 lol.

Dewpoint has dropped 11 degrees since sunset this evening. Currently 15/-6. I can't imagine that bodes well for the incoming event. Hoping we can at least scrape a couple inches out of this.

Didn't quite hit the negatives here, but 2F was cold enough for me. As the clouds arrive in advance of tonight/tomorrow's event, I'm thinking today will likely be the first day that fails to reach 20F here.

It's hard to project exactly how this event is going to break in my area. The Canadian/NAM continued the pronounced northward trend, and both deliver a solid 6"+ event here. The GFS/Euro halted the northward progression, and are much leaner overall with about 2" give or take. The RGEM shifted south a hair, but still has a solid event.

In my operational forecasting days, it would be hard to dispute a GFS/Euro consensus. The EC Ensembles do yield a higher mean total here than the operational run, while the GEFS is pretty consistent with the op. It I were to go public with a forecast for my hood, I'd probably start with 2-4" using the Euro/GFS blend as my minimum value while allowing for somewhat higher totals to allow for a last minute tick north based on the EC ensembles. It's pretty obvious that the real fun will be south of here.

Models (particularly the Canadian/RGEM) have been suggesting some mid-level fronto banding, and if that comes to fruition someone in the AQW-EEN-CON-SFM corridor could really cash in.

Very cold day in these parts today. The "official" high will be a midnight high of 28F, but we bottomed out at 17F this morning and only recovered to 20F for the afternoon maximum. Currently down to 11F with a biting wind.

Optimistic looking at the model trends regarding Thursday's event. A couple/few inches to freshen things up would do wonders. 2" of cement at the stake.

Managed to maintain a solid snow cover here, in spite of the thaw over the weekend. I have about 2" of crusty stale snow on the ground which will almost certainly be the foundation of the seasonal snowpack at this point. Currently 31F and snowing lightly as we get fringed by the anafrontal wave. 

Even though the Wednesday night/Thursday deal will almost certainly deliver the bulk of its snow well south of the White Mountains, it does look like there is room for some very light accumulation on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. It would be nice to pick up an inch or two to freshen things up and make it pretty again. Waking up to a fresh accumulation of light snow with temperatures well down into the teens Thursday morning would be a win at this point.