NWAflizzard

Snow falling here being blown around by the wind.  Smaller flakes with a few bigger ones mixed in.  Sitting at 4 degrees.  Now this is what I call winter!

Thought this update was interesting.  Sounds like Tulsa thinks this could be big for the entire area

National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1004 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated snowfall amounts for tonight in areas to the
northwest of I-44, as most recent runs of the HRRR and HRW suite
have continued to focus the initial frontogenetic band of snow in
the 06-12z time frame more to the north. Mid-level radar echoes
have been gradually expanding across SW-central OK likely in
response to this increased forcing. An environment characterized
by steep lapse rates above the cold air at the sfc may be
supportive of CSI in the elevated front zone, and thus some heavy
banding of snow may occur late tonight into Sunday morning.

The overall message of the forecast remains the same tonight as a
significant winter storm is shaping up for a large part of
eastern OK and northwest AR. Dynamic upper level system located
near the Four Corners, which has produced numerous CG lightning
strikes across NM/AZ this evening, continues to move east, and
will provide a prolonged period of strong forcing over much of
the area.

North winds have begun to increase over the past couple of hours
in response to the approaching system, with gusts around 25 mph
becoming common across northeast OK. Wind chills have fallen below
-5 in parts of NE OK as a result and while this is technically
 wind chill advisory criteria, this will be covered by the winter
 storm warning beginning at midnight. Higher dew points
 depressions seem to have cut off the lake effect snow across
 eastern OK, however sfc reports indicate there is still some
 ongoing in the FYV area...so have added flurries into the
 forecast for the remainder of the evening. Per satellite this
 appears to be mainly down wind from Beaver Lake.

Both 00z GEM and GFS still have the second storm.  Wonder if the Euro will come on board.

Good luck everyone!  Hopefully we all get something memorable!

Just now, JoMo said:

Well if the GFS is right, this is just the appetizer with the main course still yet to come with the 2nd system.

Just saw that.  Really upped totals across NWA and Southwest MO for that second storm.

Looks like the 12z GFS increased snowfall totals for Benton county during that first storm.

Just now, NwWhiteOut said:

Heck the past few days we have a coating of ice on the trees and all these snow frizzle showers probly half to 3/4 of an inch of snow on the ground now. Its actually pretty, just light and no brutal winds...just a neat surprise snow. Its just the relaxing kind of snows, enjoyable even though it isnt much at all.

Same thing has been happening up here.  We probably have about the same on the ground.  Snowed lightly all day today and was blowing around everywhere.  Very nice.  

Just for laughs.  This was the weather channel's temperature outlook for February.

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

lol. Enjoy your 43" of snow. 

Ok.  I will cash out with that.  No need for any additional runs.  Thanks

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

I was just thinking that too but then I told myself it’s the NAM at 84.  Ha!  Regardless, very good look if we extrapolate it out the next 3 or 4 frames.  

I know.  I am just reaching for anything to keep me optimistic! 

End of NAM looks interesting.

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

In my opinion things still look good for all of us. The GFS has been the most consistent run to run by far and the V16 is still a crush for all.   The Canadian is all over the place but at least it has the Mon/Tues storm now.  

Even the NAM at 78-84 (Ha!!!) even took a step in the right direction.  

That’s all the optimism I have for now! 

I'm staying optimistic for that Monday system.  If things don't pan out on that at least I can finally take up ice skating.

The GFS temperatures are crazy so far.  Has NWA below freezing all the way out to next Friday.

We are at 36 here now.  Started at 30 this morning.

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

Looks like the front cuts just north of you and those of us in NW AR.  The shallow cold air always has such a hard time pushing over the mountains so we’ll stay between 30-34ish while others a few miles north are in the 20’s.  

Yeah.  It has been between 29-34 here for two days now.

I am feeling better about this event.  Models have trended colder for Wednesday with some ice for northwest Arkansas. Then the GFS wants to bring snow through for the weekend.  Euro and GFS temps cold for the weekend.

Edit:  Schools in Carroll county, Arkansas are closing for today and going virtual.

Decent storm popping up on the 00 GFS at 138.  Maybe another storm coming at 156.  Also seems a little colder than the 18z run. 

Euro looks colder this run.

Hour 186 has our area at -14.  Is that possible for this time of year?  Am I reading this right?

00z Euro run really cut back on the cold air.

Yes.  The GFS looked nice for our area this morning. I am ready for some more winter weather.

I had to come up to Davenport, Iowa, this week.  They look like they have had a decent winter.  Has not been very cold though.  32 degrees right now with light snow falling.

22 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

NWS Little Rock said 7 inches fell but didn’t say where.  

I think that was in Newton and Searcy counties.  So just a bust for this area then. lol

We got a dusting to maybe .5 inch here in Pea Ridge.  I decided to drive to Carroll county this morning.  It was under an active Winter Storm Warning at the time.  There was no snow on the ground at all.  Total bust.  

So far I will take this winter over all the others I have seen here over the last 5 years.  Even though my area missed out on this storm we finally got a decent snow two weeks ago.  Looks like there is the chance for more winter weather opportunities in the future too.  Congratulations to everyone who cashed in on this storm!

We got down to 32.4 here for an hour or so with moderate rain.  Never observed any ice accretion.  Temperature has been slowly creeping up.  Now at 33.