Wanna correct a mistake, I said the La Nina event this winter should look like a weaker, shorter event in my last post. I later found out that both the ONI and MEI of 1954 have been already the exact same as 2020 so far.1954 reached the first peak as early as ASO with an ONI around -0.9 and a MEI of -1.045 in ND.
This year we’ve already had a rough -1 MEI for JA, and a ONI of -0.6 in JAS. With the upcoming multiple rounds of easterlies burst, I’d like to go with a ONI in the range of -1.0 to -1.4 for NDJ or DJF, so it maybe far more stronger than the first peak of 1954 La Nina event and looks very close to the strength of 2007 or 1995.But here’s some other things looks interesting to me, almost every climate models continuously predicting a sharp rising of Nino3.4 values in late winter and spring in 2021, this doesn’t often happen when a mature, modoki-like, moderate or strong La Nina in its decaying stage. Usually a Nina which goes into the moderate or strong range often has a double peak, even multiple peak in next year. Just like how 1954,1955; 1995,1996;2007,2008 evolve. The situation may shift away from 1955,1996,2008, these cold-neutral of double peak event. So It’s pretty wise for raindancewx to put 1964 as an analog cuz 1964 Nina decaying quickly and transitioning into a Nino in early 1965 just like the what climate models are predicting for next year.I’m not saying 2021 would be another Nino, but if the rapid warming in Nino 3.4 verifies, 1964-1965 could be the only best analog in nearly 70 years.