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About MSUgulfcoaster

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  1. Geez, that was at 2:30am. Surge coming in fast in and around Pensacola, some of these little creeks that empty into the bays around there will experience historic flooding.
  2. I have family that live about 5 miles up the Dog River, it was not looking good for them 36 hours ago, I was worried. The Dog River is about halfway up the bay on the west side, runs NW to SE, and is only 8 miles long. It's setup is prime for a nightmare storm surge event if a major hurricane were to landfall on the MS/AL line, that onshore flow would funnel unbelievable amounts of water straight up that thing with nowhere to go, . Mobile always seems to dodge the bullets, fortunately.
  3. Gotcha, maybe I should've seen that. Apologies
  4. This isn't true either, i would say the center will be inland within the next 4-6 hours
  5. It's a bit deceiving but that's not true. The forecast was initialized at 630Z, which was the intermediate update at 130am, and then the 12Z prediction that says 12H, which is 12 hours from the original initialation, but 5 and a half hours from the intermediate. So what it is really saying is it will not have landfallen by 630am and will have 110mph winds, it should landfall shortly after that
  6. When will the GFS accept that there are flaws in their model? Time after time after time in the last couple years, and especially this year, GFS has wayyyyy undershot. Imo, as a citizen on the coast, I would rather be overly prepared and it not be as bad as predicted, than the other way around, ALL DAY. It’s getting to the point where I don’t even look at the GFS and Euro, but all the media stations and sites still use it. It’s irresponsible, it’s time to re-evaluate and learn from mistakes. The atmosphere and ocean are changing, but their formula stays the same. Up until really this year, people have always given the HWRF and HMON shit and not taken them seriously, but that’s all I trust now, the hurricane models. I will day that the NHC has done a better job with Sally on atleast splitting the difference between the bullish HWRF/HMON and bearish GFS/Euro. If you are paying attention and keeping score, the bulls are undefeated against the bears this season. And for god sakes GFS, please, please, please do a better job of making the initialization and past hour forecasts match the real live data at 0 hours. When you initialize something as a 55 mph storm and it’s actually a hurricane already, clearly, the rest of the model run will be flawed. The GFS is broken, but it is what is being used to warn and prepare millions of Americans along our coasts. I End rant
  7. They are probably weather nerds just like us, staring at their computer waiting for the latest dropsonde velocity data to come in. Only difference is we are on the couch and they are flying through the eye in an airplane. We aren’t so different, I bet they look forward to these flights, what a rush it would be.
  8. Recon turned right back around to the center after that last insane pass through the NE eye wall, they are probably heading back through it as we speak. They are testing to see if those numbers in the NE eye wall hold up a second time, if so, they will update Hurricane Sally to Major Hurricane Sally in an intermediate advisory.
  9. I’m sure the set up of the jet stream and land interaction has aided in its intensification over the last 6 hours or so. Also, it is sitting over a spot of the Northeastern gulf where the shelf doesn’t extend out as far as other regions. Upwelling has kept it from going into rapid intensification, there are a lot of little factors that have been helping to intensify Sally, upwelling has mitigated the level of intensification. look at this map, there is plenty of TCPW out there for Sally in her little nook of the Gulf, lol. Also, she has been feeding and feeding off the moisture from her SW, the Gulf Stream brings that area a constant supply of Warm waters, like a conveyer belt, while it’s deep waters help retain it. Without upwelling this would be a major right now.
  10. Eye dropsonde, NE eye wall dropsonde, and NW eye wall dropsonde, in that order. Apparently Sally is a category 3 hurricane. SFMR’s I doubt sometimes, dropsondes are usually pretty dang accurate. Weird storm being weird. We have been seeing some really high velos in the NE eye wall on radar, but damn.
  11. WTF, that cannot be right, can it? ~130mph winds? Major Hurricane Sally? That can’t be right
  12. Coastal towns from Dauphin Island to Pensacola have already received close to a foot of rain, that will double over the next 12 hours, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that tripled in some isolated areas that catch a nasty rain band camped over their location.
  13. Extrapolated central pressure ~965mb Extrapolated surface winds(E eye wall) ~95mph