Brian D

WWA out for that time too. Gonna be slick out there in the a.m.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and flash freeze expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Thursday morning commute. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Much colder air will build into the region
  tonight through Thursday morning, causing flash freeze
  conditions. Wet pavement and roadways may become very slick as
  they freeze over!

Some rain just starting here. High wind warning issued from midnight till noon tomorrow. 50-55 mph winds. Shit sure is moving fast.

Looking at an 1" of rain w/thunder, then temps rapidly drop to 20 bringing 1-3" of snow with all that water freezing up, quickly. Winds up 45 mph. Currently it's 40 with a fog/mist with winds off the Lake slowly increasing.

Mid 40's tomorrow with a quick shot of rn/sn tomorrow night. Very windy conditions after, up to 45mph. 

Keeps looking like those of us that put up X-mas eve/day forecasts in the Holiday thread are going to see something moving through.

Light snow this morning has added another 2" with more on the way. Maybe another inch or 2 on tap.

Chicago's and Des Moines' extreme's for the second half of Dec (16-31). So, it would be unimpressive in mid Dec, considering the dates here. But it looks more impressive when you get into MN, and WI.

Chicago

69.0    1984-12-28    1984-12-28    
68.0    1875-12-31    1875-12-31   
67.0    1877-12-20    1877-12-20    
65.0    1982-12-28    1982-12-28    
64.0    1877-12-19    1877-12-19  
64.0    1982-12-25    1982-12-25   
64.0    1889-12-24    1889-12-24    
63.0    1984-12-29    1984-12-29    
62.0    1967-12-21    1967-12-21   
62.0    1982-12-23    1982-12-23    

Des Moines

69.0    1889-12-24    1889-12-24   
69.0    1984-12-28    1984-12-28    
64.0    1946-12-27    1946-12-27    
64.0    1933-12-22    1933-12-22   
64.0    1939-12-17    1939-12-17    
64.0    1976-12-18    1976-12-18    
63.0    1941-12-21    1941-12-21    
63.0    1965-12-30    1965-12-30   
63.0    2004-12-30    2004-12-30    
62.0    1939-12-16    1939-12-16    
 

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

I did these up a while ago, good time to post them. Those temps above are extreme, especially for mid Dec.

Here's are Nov stats. Pretty close to avg overall for our region with very mild weather in the plains with some top 10/near record high avg's. Ohio valley saw some top 10 record cool avg's as well. Ended up being the 5th warmest Fall.

Here's the totals recorded for this system. We got hit pretty good. Forecast was on the money. Very cold out with breezy conditions. Very windy after midnight into this morning. Temps around 0 to 5 above right now. Couple days of cold, then a little more snow. LES should be pretty strong into the UP of MI.

Snow is winding down now. 12-15"+ north of me with about 6-8" here in town and towards Duluth. There may be another inch or two through the night, and the winds are supposed to pick up out of the NW and get a little gusty. Possible 45 mph into tomorrow. If that happens, then this will all drift around, but we'll see if they get that strong. Oh, and the temps will be dropping like a rock through the day tomorrow. Should be 0 or below by sunset. Hurray, NOT! LOL

Mod bands of snow have been consistent to my north (NW-NE). Brimson reported 8" midday, so many areas up there should be closing in on 12" right now. About 5-6" here in town with light snow.

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Yup, we're gonna roll into the torch empty handed

 

16-18th, you guys are really warm according to my modelling method. SE ridge with a strong front coming along S CA. 40-45 my way is good for the heat bill. Too bad it won't last  

Snow slacked off there for a while, but is pretty steady now. A good 4-5" on the ground with plows out and about. Snow was fluffier this morning, but now it's finer and packing a bit more. Temps were in the mid 20's this morning and now around 30.

Light to moderate snow this morning. About 2-3" on the ground already with much more to come.

Two Harbors live cam

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAKfJ0KyS4w

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Blizzard Warning for Southern Cook County in Minnesota

Just up the road from me is gonna be really bad. Winds will barely meet blizzard criteria, but the snow will be heavy up there. Pretty much near zero visibility.

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

punt the rink until jan, we torching mid month

My model method has a warm period around that time too, so I agree with this forecast. It breaks down as we near the solstice.

EDIT: I double checked, and it will be a little after this time of the 14th. 17-18th looks to be the start of a few days of generally warmer weather for the region as a whole. It'll flux a little, but definitely some mild air on tap.

50 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

@Brian Dfurther up the shore from you could see 12-18” with lake enhancement and orographic effect.

They're upping the the snow total possibility as you have mentioned from earlier today. 

For areas north of U.S. 2, there is increasing confidence for
accumulations exceeding 6 inches. Model guidance continues to show a
strong signal for accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the
northern half of the CWA. Areas in the higher terrain of the North
Shore may see accumulations exceeding a foot due to enhancement from
Lake Superior and orographic effects. A Winter Storm Watch remains
in effect for these portions of the CWA from Saturday night to
Monday morning due to the likelihood of 6 inches of snow or more. An
upgrade to a warning will likely be needed. However, the watch
wasn`t upgraded at this time due to uncertainty about the northern
extent of the dry slot.

WS Watch out for Sat night thru Sun night for the Northland area. 4-6" with 8"+ along the higher terrain very possible.

Northwest flow will continue for the Northland as we move into the
weekend. Currently a trough over the Gulf of Alaska will move
eastward with time, but not before pieces of energy split off and
move out ahead of the trough. More specifically, by Saturday
night a strong disturbance moves towards the CWA. This will be the
initial start of a prolonged period of snow for northeast MN and
northwest WI. Models continue in agreement on the start of snow
which will be around 00Z Sunday for the southwest part of the
CWA. As the trough transitions into its next phase this is where
the models differ a bit. The GFS and ECMWF have an upper level low
pressure developing by Sunday afternoon, whereas the Canadian and
NAM12 still have an open trough. Regardless, the axis of higher
snow totals appears to move northeastward towards the Arrowhead.
For the same time frame, the associated surface low pressure does
vary on location per the aforementioned models, however no matter
the solution it is still west of the CWA thereby allowing for
onshore flow for the North Shore. This will create a good scenario
for lake effect snow to accumulate along the North Shore. Greater
than 8 inches is likely for southern Lake and Cook Counties along
with blowing and drifting snow as the winds will become gusty
Sunday afternoon. Models come back in agreement for Sunday night
with a trough over the far northeastern portion of MN to northwest
WI. Due to that, a TROWAL and deformation zone will likely not be
the leading cause of higher snow totals, but the prolonged period
of snowfall will give the northland its first widespread
measurable snowfall. Moving into Monday, lake effect snowfall will
transition to the South Shore with likely snow totals of at least
8 inches.

Looks like I, and a handful of others will be busy posting snow totals for the next couple weeks. A solid 6" hit possible this weekend with a strong clipper system diving into the N Plains, and heading westward. I have a parade of systems (weak/strong) on the boards for the month from my own modelling method. As I mentioned weeks ago, "onward to an active, and at times, bitter winter".

Second band finishing up. Couple inches. Snow covered roads are very slick. It has stuck to the trees. Beautiful landscape.

Some light snow this morning, nothing much. Lucky if there's 1/2" so far. Typical clipper stuff. Another band may move through here later.

1-3" of snow will be moving through here starting 0dark30 until the aftrn tomorrow. Still some snow left from yesterday on the ground.

A couple inches of snow fell early this morning. A bit more than was supposed to fall, but it's white out again for at least a couple days as aftrn temps will go above freezing again in the coming days here in town.

5 hours ago, Baum said:

bust is to  polite. So much for counting on you as my replacement for Joe Bastardi after my disappointment in his long range calls. Lost credibility with me in his constant calls for WAD.

You seem to forget that I had the low further north in my forecast with high pressure in place by Friday. Was a little behind as it started moving through on Wed, and I had it on starting on Thurs. And I did mention that even with the GFS maps in my posts. I did post a bad example there. I'll have to be more careful in doing that.

On 11/19/2021 at 1:23 PM, Brian D said:

I have a map from what I mentioned yesterday from my model method. Looks like a clipper moving in with some energy from the south moving up. Could be significant. A messy weekend down that way with snows my way, very possible. Models always get a bit wild during the colder season. For many years that has not changed.

Southern energy stays put with the clipper moving through bringing light precip. Close call.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.  

Cold weather today in the Northland. High's will be around the mid teens to lower 20's. This will be a top 10 day (dense ranked) for a few stations. Last time we had a rather cold T-day was 2014, with highs running in the single digits to low teens near the lake. It was also a bitter a.m. with lows below zero. Near record to record lows that day, with top 5 low max temps. 2013, and 2005 were at the same levels of high/low temps as today.