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Brian D

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Posts posted by Brian D

  1. WWA out for that time too. Gonna be slick out there in the a.m.

    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST
    THURSDAY...

    * WHAT...Snow and flash freeze expected. Total snow accumulations
      of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

    * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Minnesota.

    * WHEN...From 3 AM to noon CST Thursday.

    * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
      could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
      could impact the Thursday morning commute. Strong winds could
      cause tree damage.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Much colder air will build into the region
      tonight through Thursday morning, causing flash freeze
      conditions. Wet pavement and roadways may become very slick as
      they freeze over!

    • Like 1
  2. Chicago's and Des Moines' extreme's for the second half of Dec (16-31). So, it would be unimpressive in mid Dec, considering the dates here. But it looks more impressive when you get into MN, and WI.

    Chicago

    69.0    1984-12-28    1984-12-28    
    68.0    1875-12-31    1875-12-31   
    67.0    1877-12-20    1877-12-20    
    65.0    1982-12-28    1982-12-28    
    64.0    1877-12-19    1877-12-19  
    64.0    1982-12-25    1982-12-25   
    64.0    1889-12-24    1889-12-24    
    63.0    1984-12-29    1984-12-29    
    62.0    1967-12-21    1967-12-21   
    62.0    1982-12-23    1982-12-23    

    Des Moines

    69.0    1889-12-24    1889-12-24   
    69.0    1984-12-28    1984-12-28    
    64.0    1946-12-27    1946-12-27    
    64.0    1933-12-22    1933-12-22   
    64.0    1939-12-17    1939-12-17    
    64.0    1976-12-18    1976-12-18    
    63.0    1941-12-21    1941-12-21    
    63.0    1965-12-30    1965-12-30   
    63.0    2004-12-30    2004-12-30    
    62.0    1939-12-16    1939-12-16    
     

     

    • Like 1
  3. Here's the totals recorded for this system. We got hit pretty good. Forecast was on the money. Very cold out with breezy conditions. Very windy after midnight into this morning. Temps around 0 to 5 above right now. Couple days of cold, then a little more snow. LES should be pretty strong into the UP of MI.

    dec 5 snow totals.gif

    • Like 1
  4. Snow is winding down now. 12-15"+ north of me with about 6-8" here in town and towards Duluth. There may be another inch or two through the night, and the winds are supposed to pick up out of the NW and get a little gusty. Possible 45 mph into tomorrow. If that happens, then this will all drift around, but we'll see if they get that strong. Oh, and the temps will be dropping like a rock through the day tomorrow. Should be 0 or below by sunset. Hurray, NOT! LOL

    • Like 4
  5. 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

    Blizzard Warning for Southern Cook County in Minnesota

    Just up the road from me is gonna be really bad. Winds will barely meet blizzard criteria, but the snow will be heavy up there. Pretty much near zero visibility.

     

    4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

    punt the rink until jan, we torching mid month

    image.png.2e5d6231a5e5ff933faee9d96de95a56.png

    My model method has a warm period around that time too, so I agree with this forecast. It breaks down as we near the solstice.

    EDIT: I double checked, and it will be a little after this time of the 14th. 17-18th looks to be the start of a few days of generally warmer weather for the region as a whole. It'll flux a little, but definitely some mild air on tap.

  6. 50 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

    @Brian Dfurther up the shore from you could see 12-18” with lake enhancement and orographic effect.

    They're upping the the snow total possibility as you have mentioned from earlier today. 

    For areas north of U.S. 2, there is increasing confidence for
    accumulations exceeding 6 inches. Model guidance continues to show a
    strong signal for accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the
    northern half of the CWA. Areas in the higher terrain of the North
    Shore may see accumulations exceeding a foot due to enhancement from
    Lake Superior and orographic effects. A Winter Storm Watch remains
    in effect for these portions of the CWA from Saturday night to
    Monday morning due to the likelihood of 6 inches of snow or more. An
    upgrade to a warning will likely be needed. However, the watch
    wasn`t upgraded at this time due to uncertainty about the northern
    extent of the dry slot.

    dec 5 snowcast.gif

    • Like 1
  7. WS Watch out for Sat night thru Sun night for the Northland area. 4-6" with 8"+ along the higher terrain very possible.

    Northwest flow will continue for the Northland as we move into the
    weekend. Currently a trough over the Gulf of Alaska will move
    eastward with time, but not before pieces of energy split off and
    move out ahead of the trough. More specifically, by Saturday
    night a strong disturbance moves towards the CWA. This will be the
    initial start of a prolonged period of snow for northeast MN and
    northwest WI. Models continue in agreement on the start of snow
    which will be around 00Z Sunday for the southwest part of the
    CWA. As the trough transitions into its next phase this is where
    the models differ a bit. The GFS and ECMWF have an upper level low
    pressure developing by Sunday afternoon, whereas the Canadian and
    NAM12 still have an open trough. Regardless, the axis of higher
    snow totals appears to move northeastward towards the Arrowhead.
    For the same time frame, the associated surface low pressure does
    vary on location per the aforementioned models, however no matter
    the solution it is still west of the CWA thereby allowing for
    onshore flow for the North Shore. This will create a good scenario
    for lake effect snow to accumulate along the North Shore. Greater
    than 8 inches is likely for southern Lake and Cook Counties along
    with blowing and drifting snow as the winds will become gusty
    Sunday afternoon. Models come back in agreement for Sunday night
    with a trough over the far northeastern portion of MN to northwest
    WI. Due to that, a TROWAL and deformation zone will likely not be
    the leading cause of higher snow totals, but the prolonged period
    of snowfall will give the northland its first widespread
    measurable snowfall. Moving into Monday, lake effect snowfall will
    transition to the South Shore with likely snow totals of at least
    8 inches.

    Dec 5 snowfall chance.gif

    • Like 3
  8. Looks like I, and a handful of others will be busy posting snow totals for the next couple weeks. A solid 6" hit possible this weekend with a strong clipper system diving into the N Plains, and heading westward. I have a parade of systems (weak/strong) on the boards for the month from my own modelling method. As I mentioned weeks ago, "onward to an active, and at times, bitter winter".

  9. 5 hours ago, Baum said:

    bust is to  polite. So much for counting on you as my replacement for Joe Bastardi after my disappointment in his long range calls. Lost credibility with me in his constant calls for WAD.

    You seem to forget that I had the low further north in my forecast with high pressure in place by Friday. Was a little behind as it started moving through on Wed, and I had it on starting on Thurs. And I did mention that even with the GFS maps in my posts. I did post a bad example there. I'll have to be more careful in doing that.

  10. On 11/19/2021 at 1:23 PM, Brian D said:

    I have a map from what I mentioned yesterday from my model method. Looks like a clipper moving in with some energy from the south moving up. Could be significant. A messy weekend down that way with snows my way, very possible. Models always get a bit wild during the colder season. For many years that has not changed.

    Nov 27-28 wx map.gif

    Southern energy stays put with the clipper moving through bringing light precip. Close call.

     

    Nov 27 wx map.gif

    Nov 28 wx map.gif

    • Like 1
  11. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. :) 

    Cold weather today in the Northland. High's will be around the mid teens to lower 20's. This will be a top 10 day (dense ranked) for a few stations. Last time we had a rather cold T-day was 2014, with highs running in the single digits to low teens near the lake. It was also a bitter a.m. with lows below zero. Near record to record lows that day, with top 5 low max temps. 2013, and 2005 were at the same levels of high/low temps as today.

    T-day weather story.gif

    • Like 1
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