Brian D

A very cool weekend here with a.m. temps in the upper 20's, and aftrn highs mid-upper 40's. But milder weather on tap this week. Sure could use some rain though.

On 10/1/2020 at 6:32 PM, weatherbo said:

Just looked outside and its snowing, temp is 34.

UP Mich is more like mountain environment of the west. Short summers and heavy snows.

16 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Camping up in Finland Minnesota tonight. Paging @Brian D. It is already down to 35F with a chance of snow showers overnight. 
 

Fantastic colors on the drive up. Along the lakeshore elevation ~600’ colors seem to be peaking but up the hill where we are camping ~1350’  it’s a few days past peak for sure. 

Maples were peaking a week ago, with poplar/birch near peak when I was on a drive that way over a week ago. Enjoy your time up there. Milder temps coming next week with some shwr chances, but still, it's been a chilly start to Oct for sure.

On 8/14/2020 at 3:51 PM, Brian D said:

Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

Not quite right with that forecast. It ended avg-much warmer NW areas and avg-much cooler in the SE areas.

Oct 1st feels more like Halloween. Lets see how interesting this month will be.

Ending Sept mixed. A month of extremes.

Cloudy/cool here the last couple days with some much needed rain falling today. Rivers need to come up so salmon can spawn. They're barely running right now, and some of the mouths are closed off with gravel bars from lake waves. During the warm spell we had, the salmon were off the Agate Bay break wall, and many fisherman were having real good catches, including my son, who dropped off a nice king fillet. Very tasty!

I looked up Sept snowfall for the Duluth area 0.1" or greater. Data prior to the 40's would have been near the lake, after that the airport readings are about 5 miles inland and a little higher in elevation. Easier to get snow accumulations up there in the Fall, so very significant are snows near the lake that accumulate. The 1991 value may have been easily broken if snow was measured over the hill back then. Interesting that 1991 had that much as we also experienced the Halloween snowstorm that dumped 3 ft. of snow around Duluth/Two Harbors that same year. That was wild! Made for an interesting deer hunting season a week later. https://www.weather.gov/dlh/1991halloweenblizzard

9/18/1991  2.4"

9/29/1908  1.5"

9/25/1927  0.9"

9/30/1985  0.7"

9/23/1928  0.3"

9/21/1974  0.2"

9/26/1912  0.1"

9/30/1974  0.1"

9/21/1995  0.1"

9/21/2012  0.1"

Earlier in this thread, I noted the possible areas of above or below avg temps this Fall. This was my thinking of what it could be. One month in, and I'm probably a bit off already, but with 2 months to go with met fall, we'll see. I do pretty well with long range, but I fail at it sometimes too. That's the way it is.

This one too.

This reminds me of the mid 90's when we had snow in the air really early in the Fall season. Oct will be interesting as I thought. From snow to thunder and back again throughout the month? A mixed bag indeed.

A friend of mine took me on a ride up the North Shore of Lake Superior yesterday. Definitely near peak conditions north of Two Harbors. We went up Hwy #61 then up Hwy #1 then down Hwy #2. Didn't see any moose, but a nice ride. Temps were running mid 60's near shore to low 80's inland. It was a very beautiful day. Bye-bye Indian summer.

On 9/21/2020 at 11:42 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Interesting map. This Sept isn’t a good example though...




.

I graphed this. May have warmed much for Sept, but looks we're getting back to what seems close to normal these past few years, at least for the upper midwest.

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl

Day 2 of Indian summer (warm, dry spell after killing frosts), feels great with temps in the low-mid 70's here. Back to reality in earnest next week though.

On 8/14/2020 at 3:51 PM, Brian D said:

Met Fall is just around the corner. If you have any forecasts or thoughts concerning the upcoming season, go for it.

I believe we start it off with cooler weather for the first half of the Sept with more normal conditions in the second half. My model suggests some very cold air coming in a little early with widespread frost and freeze conditions typical of later Sept in the north.

Oct looks to be quite a mixed bag of weather on a week to week basis into early Nov. Oct could be very interesting and a bit wild, but it is Oct, and wild is no stranger during this month as the seasons clash like they do in Spring. Be ready!! Then by mid - Nov, I'm expecting some very cold weather for our region with the LES machine cranking up strong. Then comes the heavy snows of early Dec, especially my way, but that's another season discussion.

The weather this Fall will probably mirror the crazy climate of little critters and elections. In the words of the Fonz "NUTSO"!! LOL

Be blessed all in these crazy times!

So far on track with Sept. Rather mild conditions set to show up this week at least for the western lakes. Should end up close to seasonal temps by the end of the month for the second half, hence " more normal conditions" along with some needed rain. I'm really interested in Oct though. Could be a rather fun weather month, we'll see.

Well, decided to put up my forecast for Halloween for those that involve themselves with trick n treats. Being 6 weeks out, lets see how close I get this.

Looks like the upper midwest will be on the colder side with W to N winds (flurries/sn shwers?), and a storm front/low pressure in the lakes region.

Map of what it may look like.

Low of 28 this morning here with mid 50's at the moment. Might hit 60 today.

Duluth is no longer issuing frost/freeze warnings because growing season is over up this way. Actually it's been over for a few days.

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

 

 

 

That's a real hard freeze for this time of year for sure. Mid 30's here this a.m.. Mid to upper 50's this aftrn. Trees turning in town quicker than normal, so inland should be firing up good this week. By the lake, we're about 10-14 days later in color(warmer) and 10-14 days later in spring budding(colder) because of the water temps. Should be a nice drive up Hwy #2. I like to hit the Beaver river Rd off Hwy 15. It takes you up into Finland. That road has a stop for a walking trail that goes up on a ridge. During sunset on a clear day, the maples on the ridge across the valley look like their on fire. Awesome view. Been years tho since I've been up that way. Beaver river rd hits the Hefflefinger, and you go right for finland or left takes you north a ways until you hit Hwy #1 south of Isabella. Take #1 north until you hit #2 then go south back to TH. It's a long drive. Plenty of scenery and even a moose or 2.

Cleared up well with the Canadian air moving through. And now the cool weather again with frost and freeze warnings up.

Last couple days been very hazy from all the smoke. Interesting to see the whole country is being affected.

23 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That could be a double-edged sword. As needed as that rain was, now that the heat and growing season are nearly over, drying out in the ground takes longer. There's going to be plenty more precip this fall, so now flooding may be the next concern down the road.

A few more records yesterday for low max temps.

Ashland, WI: 52 broke 54(1954)

Mpls, MN: 50 broke 55(1929)

Eau Claire, WI: 49 broke 58(1954)

From N WI:

ANTIGO 45 broke 55 (1935)

APPLETON 49 broke 58 (1917)

GREEN BAY 51 broke 55 (1917)

MANITOWOC 54 broke 55 (1883,1917)

MARSHFIELD 47 broke 56 (1954)

MERRILL 47 broke 56 (1954)

OSHKOSH 53 broke 60 (2001)

RHINELANDER 49 broke 55 (1941,1954)

WAUSAU E46** broke 56 (1911)

WISCONSIN RAPIDS 49 broke 58 (1954)

Record low St. Cloud,  MN: 33 tied 1898

Lots of old records literally smashed by up to 10degF. Impressive cold snap.

Record low max temps at a few stations across MN and WI for Sept 8th.

Duluth, MN: 52 tied 1946

Brainerd, MN: 52 tied 1946

Ashland, WI: 52 tied 1929

Mpls, MN: 52 broke 54(1929)

St. Cloud, MN: 53 broke 54(1929,1946)

Eau Claire, WI: 54 broke 60(1946)

Slew of stations from N WI

ANTIGO 49 broke 55 1911

APPLETON 55 broke 57 1943

MARSHFIELD 51 broke 56 1946

MERRILL 52 broke 57 1943

OSHKOSH 59 TIED 59 2008

RHINELANDER 50 broke 53 1943

WAUSAU 51 broke 55 1911

STEVENS POINT 52 broke 55 1924

WISCONSIN RAPIDS 53 broke 54 1975

Even Sioux Falls, SD: 49 tied 1929

I'm sure there are many more.

26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Death ridge

The crops this year are getting hit hard in some areas, and last year was really bad overall. Hope folks are stocking up best they can, and practice fasting. Our forefathers had to go through stuff like this, what makes us better than them? The age of gluttony coming to an end? Just food for thought.

Dr Roy Spencer put up a blog post concerning this event.

Read it here. Shows how often derechos hit certain areas of the country and sat image comparison.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/09/derecho-iowa-corn-damage-imaged-by-satellite/