Zdudswx

Radar is juicing up a bit to my west, snow is right on time with the hrrr from last night 

We both have our high end potential and low end potential. It’s all about when the precip comes in the earlier the snow the better we do. Off to bed and hope we can wake up to snow!

NAM isn’t great, the low is a little East but not enough to cash in. Another problem is the NAM gets the precip here later and it quickly changes over 

Just now, Hurricanegiants said:

When is the next model run? 4:00 am?

NAM is running right now 

^hrrr is furthest East with the low then any other guidance I’ve seen so far. Could be a blip but it’s been steady so far 

Hrrr is best case scenario for tomorrow along i95 

Hrrr keeps the center of the low off the coast no huge left turn like all the other models are depicting 

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

lol

Does this have anything to do with the low from Ohio transferring energy and making it tuck to the coast more or? (I’m sorry if this sounds dumb I’m still learning)

Honestly hrrr shows best case scenario for the metros front end thump then looks like a dry slot 

One more tick NE and even the metros will be back in the game. A few miles can mean big 

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

Well it did until hr23 when it did a massive jump NW with the SLP... so weird

Every model has been somewhat jumpy. We truly won’t know until it actually happens. It’s insane how much variance we have right now. 

The low no longer goes straight up the bay. Definitely an improvement.

Euro improved a good amount. Takes the low East 

Just now, jayyy said:

Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture. 

I agree with that! It’s just insane how tight the gradient is around here a 10 mile difference from giving my house a boom with 6in and a total bust with an 1”. I also agree the mesos are sniffing out exactly where the r/s line is gonna be. If hrrr verifies most of us will be extremely happy 

Just now, jayyy said:

Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the  C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one.  

This is the first time in awhile I truly don’t have a clue what’s gonna happen in my neck of the woods. Setting the bar super low here 

Honestly just waiting for the euro to go even further west with the system so we legit have every single card on the table 10 hours out 

Hrrr gives everyone around i95 (even down to dc) about 4 inches or so before the change fwiw 

Does the hrrr have any cold bias? It’s been very steady with giving the metros more of a front end thump probably the steadiest I’ve seen anything in the past couple days 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah you know how we do here...lol

Always, but at least it keeps it interesting 

5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Yeah.

I mean, there are ensemble members that shut us all out, and there are ensemble members that look like the GFS 3 days ago.

It’s a tough call, gonna come down to a few miles. I don’t envy the tv meteorologists seems like pitchforks either way. I think we really need to cash in on a front end thump and hope for any backend snow as icing.

1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I don't know how useful or useless GEFS ensembles are at super short range but it's crazy how much variation exists in the ensembles over the next 40 hours.

I agree, there is still some wiggle room. We almost had more consensus a day or two ago 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Unfortunate that we can't get a warning level, but I guess 2-4" ain't bad for a storm like this...

Yea, sadly there’s just not enough cold air locked in place. Early December bay temps are always against us. If it were mid January we all would cash in. 

Hrrr gives I 95 about 2-4” before a flip to rain areas west of 81 look great. Will easily take this 

Hrrr gives the metros a nice little event before the flip to rain. It’s just a plus to see snow for a couple hours in mid December especially after last year. It’s been fun tracking this event, hopefully more surprises ahead

Thursday temps for most of the forum is gonna be at or below freezing for a good chunk of the day. Whatever falls has a good chance at freezing up