Solidsting

With current GFS, the difference of mb with 4-5 inches and 10 is 10 miles. Over in Ypsilanti look like 10 but go down the road a tad half that. Going to be fun as all hell can’t wait to go outside. Probably not driving but I’ll go full Eskimo


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Everything looks great models seem to be inline. hope this sucker hold together thru michigan

Wow this is insane. Slept on the forecasts last few days but noticed this morning at work was unusually humid. i wonder if Detroit will be in the firing line??

ahh everything is coming together good. what are the chances of the line holding all the way to Detroit?

Now thats interesting.. I wonder what the next SPC outlook is going to be. Potentially a very active day ahead.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

They didn't really go into detail about the potential for more than one round.  I had been thinking the better threat would probably not arrive here until after dark but will have to watch the afternoon.

hmm you got a good point. but with the uncertainty in the models it looks like another not so straight forward event. pretty dynamic atmosphere going on like june 10th. if the first batch dont stabilize too much i do wonder also if maybe a secondary MCS would come along?

it dont look great for SE mich, unless its taylored to a more easterly direction and not propagating southeast

20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I don't know man, even a squall line is looking lack luster right now.

of course things changing for the worse. one good blower for wayne county and ill shutup for the summer

Ahh nice to see yall again. hope this time around don,t disappoint like that moderate risk day did. would not surprise me tho

wayne county looks like its only getting light stuff. some bull. the line in canada looks good along with the one south in ohio.

18 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

Metro Detroit in particular has been ridiculously lean the last 10 years. I can count on one hand the number of storms I've seen with more than a couple lightning strikes since I moved to Macomb County in 2010. It gets really irritating hearing thunder from miles away as all the storms dance around Wayne and Macomb counties. 

I can't count the number of times I've watched my zip code ride a slot in between storm cells to stay dry. 

 

yeah i have noticed that too. for some reason they dance around. even kinda looks like it this time around too. hope the development to the south gets stronger

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

The squall line's progression eastward looks to have slowed to a crawl.

In the mean time, now there are some nice supercells popping up along the I-75 corridor as the cap weakens.

im not far from there so im gonna head out. that line east looks slow moving. im looking at the storms at the indiana ohio border to hit where i live

now that i think about it i wonder what the chances are of a 2nd line of storms forming in front of the approaching cold front?

23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Watch out Detroit...

   Mesoscale Discussion 0900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...southeast lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...276...

   Valid 101903Z - 102030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274, 276
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have coalesced into a loosely
   organized squall line across portions of northeast Indiana and
   southeast Lower Michigan. A focused corridor for damaging wind gusts
   may develop as storms intensify from Kalamazoo, east-northeast
   toward Detroit.

   DISCUSSION...A line of quasi discrete supercells have begun merging
   into a more linear organization across portions of northeast Indiana
   and southern half of Lower Michigan over the last hour. Several
   reports of wind damage have been received as outflow has become more
   coherent and better organized. The diagonal NE/SW orientation of the
   convective line lies along a corridor of backed mid and upper-level
   flow observed from the 18z Detroit special sounding. The orientation
   of the upper-level flow will likely support continued downdraft
   development and outflow aggregations given seeding from anvil
   precipitation being advected over downstream convection across
   portions of far northeast Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. The
   main threat with storms will be damaging winds given 1200-1400 J/kg
   of DCAPE and strong mid-level flow of 50 to 60 kt. Large hail will
   be possible given MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting robust deep
   updrafts. However, the risk appears limited due to weaker lapse
   rates of 6 to 7 C/km and the predominately linear storm mode. The
   most favored corridor for severe wind will be with the stronger
   cells merging into southern Michigan toward Detroit. A few
   significant wind gusts will be possible with any stronger bowing
   structures that can develop.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42648519 43208407 43788343 43908295 43668264 42728254
               42418300 41768352 41818523 42048528 42548522 42648519 

 

on the name note it mentions how lapse rates are lowering. i dont like that lol. i want the worst to come out

20 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I just got my first thunderstorm of the year this morning, it was decent with tropical rains but not severe. I don't like the look the HRRR is giving for MBY, looks like I'm going to get whiffed this evening followed by the typical hours of moderate rain that follow. I was waiting for some descrete cells ahead of the outflow but then the CAMs backed off that...

yeah last night the cams went off. even had PDS TOR in my area i was very suprised. but i figured they would favor a more linear mode anyways just knowing how the weather up here is

1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Thunder's been pretty minimal with these cells tho. Not to be a buzzkill. Certainly worthy of the severe warnings but winds/hail are the bigger story it seems.

ahh the wind is fine by me. the area around metro Detroit just continues to get even more unstable. people on the weather channel even commented on that. nothing but hot sun and a occasional cloud where im at

7 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

This system is giving me flashbacks to all the systems that Detroit has whiffed on in the last 10 years.

i know right? even tho things look good i keep praying everything holds true. i have been wanting some big boomers for several years now

14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

We've had some early season PDS Watches totally fail over SWMI in the last decade. Even 11-17-13 didn't get the tor's up into MI as was expected. The Tor Watch in May of 2011 which produced the large rotation and tor-like damage swath is the worst I can remember locally. We are kinda overdue tbh. OH had that surprise outbreak back in Aug of '16 or '17, and the after dark EF4 on the NW side of Toledo back in June of 2010 also caused a warning here due to a very brief funnel west of here that took the roof off a church bldg. Way back 100 or more years ago, Marshall took a direct hit from a twister and the city hall bell was later found some miles from it's original location. The bell is now a memorial piece with a history plaque in front our current city hall. Stay safe all you Michiganders!

yeah i remember the one in toledo, that was a good weather day but sad a strong tornado hit structures. yeah your right we have had some pds be complete flukes. im just hoping the cap stays till 3pm so it gives the best chance of strong storms in SELM. if things get spicy i might go out and do some chasing myself later

yeah i seen that. if storms are going nuts this early i wonder how much a difference 4 hours is gonna make when we go into the evening hours

holy shit 85 mph winds out west? if thats not a potential sign of things to come idk what is. im curious to see what the nam and hrrr say here in another couple hours. i hope a line don't form too early and use up the available energy

i was outside drinking my coffee and as of 1130 the low level clouds here are breaking up. lots of sun starting to poke thru. i see a line starting to form sw of indianapolis. i wonder if thats the start of the main line that will blow thru northern ohio and southeast michigan later on today.

im hoping this spell breaks. i know soundings last night indicated a pretty good tor chance due to speed shear. went from showing pds tor now to just tor. gonna be a fun day i cant remember the last time we have had this kind of threat. and im surprised stuff already initiated so early west of here. should be a good sign i just hope a line dont go thru too early in the day

huh yeah this is kinda coming out of nowhere. i was looking at soundings 12 hours ago and thought to myself just maybe. now its coming into fruition. kinda intriguing how its suddenly transpiring like this. the soundings for my area look pretty gnarly for the 8pm time slot. right in prime time. cant show the soundings but heres the link. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sblcl&rh=2020061000&fh=24&r=conus&lon=-83.38&lat=42.28&metar=&st=619c2178a9c0064e747d5e43a6a64e26

yeah they fell apart. i was pretty sad. i was hoping they held together but like as mentioned the outflow got way to ahead of the storms. now the mid atlantic got our derecho

alot of these models seem to be off. looking like its anyones guess. hopefully the storms congeal and hold together