Jeff Grann

34 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Totally agree, being along the Hudson River at lower elevations is a micro climate. Up on Storm King at 1,000 ft is a totally different world along with going further inland westwards towards Montgomery/Goshen the fall leaf colors are more in swing. Then when the winter type precipitation occurs, the type and accumulations can vary in short distances. It’s very accurate when doing winter forecasts by many they use 84 as a dividing line for precipitation type and accumulations.

I literally can feel the difference at night taking a walk from my house near the base of Storm King  as I go a short distance towards the river. There is usually at least a 3 degree difference going a couple of miles up Mountain RD to 9W. Somehow at night walking less than half that feels more pronounced

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

We had it yesterday morning with .44 of an inch. This morning light rain and drizzle.

We will be pushing an inch soon here. 

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 0.54" so far 5A-8A.  Definitely valuable rainfall. 

We are getting a good steady drenching here at West Point. 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Holy shit,  is your pool losing that much water. Something wrong with those numbers

The pool has been needing about 4 hrs a week with the hose to keep it mid skimmer. The pool temp has been 84-86 the past 6 weeks. The young hemlock trees and other mature bushes I have all around the house have needed more water than the pool. I had a soaker hose on for 8 hrs before the TS. That storm made up for most of the 2 inches of rain I've gotten since June. Storms have missed just to my South and North all summer. The few that came in from my west all seemed to magically dissipate in the 35 miles from the Delaware River to my house. Even during the late afternoon hrs. Been a bizarre summer considering how much rain NJ has gotten just to my South

3 hours ago, BrianW said:

Where are you? NY? My water bill in CT is $100-150 every 4 months and I water the hell out of my plants and lawn. 

I'm in Cornwall on Hudson just above West Point. They charge me for sewer every gallon I use regardless. Normally my bill is 275 every 2 months. I've been putting about 4 hrs of water in the pool alone every week with virtually no rain. 27,000 gallons is a lot of water for 2 months

1 minute ago, Jeff Grann said:

Yes. This is true. 

Used 26,000 gallons in 2 months. 

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can picture Jeff dragging the hose around cursing as he waters the hemlocks. 

Yes. This is true. 

41 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Lol this is almost the definition of first world problems. 

Guess I should have went with the poor people living in public housing in New York City that have no AC or cross-ventilation to get any validity here. God forbid a middle-class family that works their asses off for 30 years to have a nice home and backyard pool can complain about exorbitant costs due to extremely hot and dry summer weather

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Summer. How can people want it over. Lava has it right. I wish I could go from 80s to snow in 3 days. 

Let's see.. 600 dollar (2 month) water/sewer bill because I have to constantly add water to a 32000 gallon pool and soak 14 young hemlock trees because it's only rained a couple of inches here since June. Also the humidity has been a constant necessitating the central AC running 24/7 leading to 400 dollar electric bills.... On top of that, my usually beautiful lawn looks like absolute crap because I can't afford to water it as usual due to having to use so much water on the aforementioned things. Yeah.. I'm ready for Fall. 

25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!  

Decided to start the topic. It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum.  FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County?  Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?)  

1.5"+ qpf differences in operational solutions through the 18z/15 (Saturday) with the EC/UK/HRRR op runs very-very light while the NAM continues furthest north with the 1+".  

Preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 ~HFD.  Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation mid level FGEN ~700 MB  in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening).  The second band across southern Ocean County NJ.  This is a best estimate based on modeling.  There will be error. 

The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5 to a few pockets of 2". The drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to near I195 Trenton,  then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1.5-3" zone.  E Suffolk County total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm  1.5-3".  

My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or I78?  

If it's any consolation...the 12z GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc. The 12z EPS is noticeably heavier than the 12z EC operational and about 1/2" shy of the GEFS for LI.

I think there is enough information to see a dismally damp midday-evening for much of NJ/LI and some decent rainfall. I think definitely wetter than the 12z SPC HREF. 

If anything, this a model contest trying to understand reality today and the associated modeling, with the follow through for Sunday.  Compromise is always best realizing the downside of forecasting too heavy too far north. 436P/15  (I do not plan to post anymore until Sunday morning - have to ride it out now).

•  

18z 3k NAM came quite a bit North from 12z to more reflect precip placement of NAM. A bit lighter totals in far NNJ/ Orange Cty (. 5+ as compared to 1"+) but nonetheless at least it wasn't a dry run like 12z

28 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning to all!  I hope it is a good start.  

Weatherwise. Not starting a topic for Sunday, but you're welcome to.  I think overall, that it will rain but under 1.5" for the area along and southeast of I95...best chance at 1-1.5" Ocean County and Suffolk County.  HOWEVER... if the 12z cycle adjusts north, I'll get one going but no decision til ~230P. UK and EC op runs continue rather dry for tomorrow and I think WPC has reacted drier in its D2 qpf. There is still quite  bit of variability in the NAEFS, but it too has shifted south and insists nothing I84 north (not good for some of us with flowers Sussex and Orange counties).  SREF (short range ensemble) plumes from 03z/15 have a cluster of very little for ISP, and then bunch spread out with big numbers.  EPS and GEFS show more consensus, drier -further south. So am going with the drier further south solution but not ruling out something substantial for the I195 region southward and eastern LI. 

Monday afternoon-early night (17th): You probably saw the SPC D3 Marginal for most of our area except eastern LI.  This i think will be a topic.  Will await clearance of Sunday's system and not begin this yet... but am pretty sure at least isolated will occur in our forum area, especially n of I80. Enough CAPE, WIND aloft and KI.

Wednesday afternoon (19th): ?: might be a severe day?? some guidance signals but very early and this does not yet look like Monday has been looking for a while on the ECMWF.

Sunday the 23rd:  Eight days away so this can easily be nothing to monitor but for now,  somewhat interesting at a distant date.  706A/15

Besides the tropical storm which brought an inch or so, I have barely had any measurable rain in a month up here around West Point. Storms from the West have had an interesting trend of weakening East from the Delaware River during this time frame even during peak heating hours. This and bad luck of Fropa timing and scattered storms barely missing MBY in all directions

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Agreed on done for the front end aft-early eve,  probably the back end too except maybe e LI. Walt

We have gone into a pattern up here in Orange/Putnam where we have been shafted by frontal timing or when we get activity, it is dissipating as it moves thru our region. It's been over 2 weeks now with nothing appreciable here combined with 90s and my water bill for plants, trees, lawn and pool is going to be astronomical 

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I was hoping this storm would fizzle, I really don't feel like dealing with a TS at the moment but, since it looks like that won't happen it's time to get cleaned up in the yard and get some fresh gas for the generator. 3-5" of rain and a bit of wind could make things messy. 

I just had over 4" of rain from Wednesday's storm. Hoping this stays West of river so I don't get 3 or 4 more. Drained pool yesterday or 4" would've mean 36 feet of my lawn would have salt/chlorine water innundating and killing it

Not often one gets a constant thunderstorm for 3 hrs and 45 min

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Snow?

LOL. 

Just measured about 4.25" in my dog's collapsible pool which was dry in the middle of the yard

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Sure was. Just got done draining down the pool. 

My pool here in Cornwall on Hudson went from an inch below the center screws on the skimmer wall frame to the top of the frame. Crazy. 

49 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Sure was. Just got done draining down the pool. 

My pool here in Cornwall on Hudson went from an inch below the center screws on the skimmer wall frame to the top of the frame. Crazy. 

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Bone dry here-lawns are brown.   We've had about an inch of rain since 5/10.

The people who care about their lawns use a sprinkler. The people who really care about their lawns have an inground sprinkler system. The rest of the people have a crappy weed lawn to begin with and are happy it's brown so they don't need to mow it as often.