Moderately Unstable

Well then. Interesting. I would like to see all 4 sides of the eyewall sampled before I make a wind comment. I also want to see what the pressure tendency is. VDM will be helpful. This is, in fact, why you fly the recon. I wouldn't count out a minimal 5. They only need 140kts surface to get that. It's close. It's just not a high end 5. The fact they didn't find wilma 2.0 isn't the most surprising thing, given that that's the record holder. It will still likely be a 5. Just isn't apparently Goni. 

If they did a timelapse they could show lightning. If they have a low light camera, which, they might, you could see a lot. 

This is very exciting I have to say. I hope they post a video on their twitter page of the punch through. I know it's dark but perhaps they can still see something. 

My hands are going to fall off. This is more enthusiasm than the actual season prediction got. 

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Wow. Eta is definitely highlighting the problem with the CI number needing to be spooled in. ADTv9 has it clamped at 1.3T/6hr so it can't catch up with the raw value quickly enough.

No. This is an algorithm thing. Earlier for example it was capped at 0.7T/6hrs. Other times there are no constraints. CIMSS varies what rules they use based on a slew of decision trees (computer calculated).

Entries now closed. Final predictions:

LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt

The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb X --> 900/160kts

jpeters3: 895mb

Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt X--> 913/150kts

sojitodd: 914-917mb

Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt X--> revised: 170-175kts

Newman: 910mb/150kt

olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt X --> revised: 897mb/160kts

Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt

Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt 

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OhioWX: 923mb/145kt

DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt

yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt

Floydbuster: 922mb/140kt

BYG Jacob: 913mb/145kt X --> 895mb/160kts

That Hurricane: 904mb/160kt

CatLover014: 919mb/145kt

Orangeburgwx: 919mb/140-145kt

tiger_deF: 890mb/160kts

Normandy: 883mb/160kts

WxWatcher007: 912mb/148kts X revised: 903mb/155kts

Hawkeye_wx: 916mb/140kts

NorthArlington101: 907mb/150kts

SRRTA22: 908mb/150kts

USCAPEWEATHER: 896mb/165kts X --> 885mb/175kts

Amped: 895mb/160kts

pdm44: 901mb/155kts

Prospero: 911mb/160kts

BuffaloWeather: 906mb/140kts

Stebo: 915mb/145kts

OKTWISTER: 932mb/140kts

Wild Weather Monger: 901mb/160kts

Louieloy102: 903mb/150kts

LakeEffectKing: 899mb/150kts

wxmx: 885mb/165kts

Jim Marusak: 935mb/140kts. 

hlcater: 901mb/150kts

Calderon: 902mb/155kts

OSUmetstud:  890mb/155kts

NavarreDon: 903mb/155kts

jojo762: 887mb/155kts

BlueDXer: 899mb/165kts

Calculation of consensus:

Mean: 905.85mb/ 152.7kts

Well, I was going to calculate.a consensus average from everyone's entries for the pressures and winds, but since so many entries have come in I'm still trying to organize everyone and will calculate shortly. ENTRIES WILL CLOSE AT THE NEXT DATA UPDATE (~1:52UTC). 

ESTIMATED PRESSURE/WIND CONTEST--SO FAR:

Note: Entries and edits close once the aircraft enters the storm. 

LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt

The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb X --> 900/160kts

jpeters3: 895mb

Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt X--> 913/150kts

sojitodd: 914-917mb

Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt X--> revised: 170-175kts

Newman: 910mb/150kt

olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt X --> revised: 897mb/160kts

Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt

Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt 

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OhioWX: 923mb/145kt

DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt

yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt

Floydbuster: 922mb/140kt

BYG Jacob: 913mb/145kt

That Hurricane: 904mb/160kt

CatLover014: 919mb/145kt

Orangeburgwx: 919mb/140-145kt

tiger_deF: 890mb/160kts

Normandy: 883mb/160kts

WxWatcher007: 912mb/148kts X revised: 903mb/155kts

Hawkeye_wx: 916mb/140kts

NorthArlington101: 907mb/150kts

SRRTA22: 908mb/150kts

USCAPEWEATHER: 896mb/165kts X --> 885mb/175kts

Amped: 895mb/160kts

pdm44: 901mb/155kts

Prospero: 911mb/160kts

BuffaloWeather: 906mb/140kts

Stebo: 915mb/145kts

OKTWISTER: 932mb/140kts

Wild Weather Monger: 901mb/160kts

Louieloy102: 903mb/150kts

LakeEffectKing: 899mb/150kts

wxmx: 885mb/165kts

Jim Marusak: 935mb/140kts. 

hlcater: 901mb/150kts

Calderon: 902mb/155kts

OSUmetstud:  890mb/155kts

NavarreDon: 903mb/155kts

jojo762: 887mb/155kts

If I haven't listed you yet or haven't updated your value, please standby. Y'all are enthusiastic. 

(1) Entries are allowed until the aircraft is "in storm": within the storm's circulation. Assuming this radius to be 150mi, at a speed of 240knots, they have around a half hour. 

(2) Should I allow guess updates (yes or no)?  

Yes. 10-30 mins before entries close folks. They're closing in on the outer circ.

ESTIMATED PRESSURE/WIND CONTEST--SO FAR:

Note: Entries and edits close once the aircraft enters the storm. 

LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt

The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb

jpeters3: 895mb

Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt

sojitodd: 914-917mb

Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt

Newman: 910mb/150kt

olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt

Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt

Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt 

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OhioWX: 923mb/145kt

DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt

yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt

Floydbuster: 922mb/140kt

BYG Jacob: 913mb/145kt

That Hurricane: 904mb/160kt

CatLover014: 919mb/145kt

Orangeburgwx: 919mb/140-145kt

tiger_deF: 890mb/160kts

Normandy: 883mb/160kts

Note: I will be offline the next half hour to hour, will update again when I return. 

ESTIMATED PRESSURE/WIND CONTEST--SO FAR:

Note: Entries and edits close once the aircraft enters the storm. 

LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt

The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb

jpeters3: 895mb

Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt

sojitodd: 914-917mb

Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt

Newman: 910mb/150kt

olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt

Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt

Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt 

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OhioWX: 923mb/145kt

DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt

yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt

I'm going with 917, 145 knots.

Edit: Upped from 140 to 145 on speed based on pressure. I feel like 140 is more likely but I'm going to go ahead and swing high.

Place yer bets folks! Come one come all, try your luck! Guess the pressure and winds! Only 5 cents! 

Well, while it is 2020, the year of anything is possible (tm), I think the analog years (2005), the continued warmth of much of the atlantic, favorable upper level patterns, and general trends both as a meteorologist and in looking at models all point to this not being the last storm. This will likely be a year in which we continue to see storm generation through November, into potentially December or even early January. The fact we have what is effectively a cat 5 at the start of November means that this isn't the last rodeo. In fact, most models the last few weeks have popcorned various new storms across the basin the next few weeks. The specifics change run to run. I don't want to get into the weeds here as this is more appropriate to discuss in the 2020 season thread. But, short version: this is probably not the last storm. This IS however almost definitely the most powerful storm of the season and historic for central america. 

6 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Is the AF aircraft a C-130? 

Well, I looked up the specs for a P-3. C-130's top out at 320 knots, so to get to 375 knots in a C-130 you need a strong tailwind. I'll go check. If they're flying a 130 I'm a little confused. 

Edit: USCAPEWEATHERAF is correct. Standby need to lookup the speed table for that now. I was giving the noaa plane speeds, apologies. 

Edit: Data says it has a 362 knot maximum speed. Clearly it's exceeding that. Regardless, faster than 320. To boil down all of this stuff--I think it's going to take em 3 hours based on the distance, and the point of my message is, they're maxing out the speed. That reduces range due to fuel eff reduction but probably not by too much and worth it at this point to get the data. 

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

That should shave off an hour from my estimate!

Indeed. I just did a bit of research, it has a top speed of 411 knots, which is actually very fast for a turboprop. Normal cruise is 328 knots. Something tells me they're trying to make up for lost time. 

Well, lol, the plane is certainly booking it, given that it's currently moving at a brisk 375 knots. 

(1) Definitely not a typical atlantic presentation. Absolutely off the charts impressive in every way. Yeah, could be at home in the indian. Amphan-esq. Though it morphed a bit, I think it had more wpac flavor earlier on. I am a bit at a loss for words. 

(2)  http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

(3) EDIT: Finally got an ASCAT pass over.... 

I am racking my head trying to think about how to best communicate risk with people in Nicaragua. This is going to be a horrific disaster. There's just so much going on right now that it's probably not going to make the news and thus get the donations and aid they will need. Also it looks like everyone forgot about Felix vis a vis strongest landfalls. Governor Saavedra has just issued the following tweet:

Translating: 

24m
#Urgent Hurricane ETA is only going to affect a small number of people (literal translation: small people). We are not going to declare a national alert. It is only water and wind and the country cannot be stopped, the economy must remain active. The 317 people who were to be evacuated have been. No one is in danger.

Eh, I don't think most people based on what I've read the last few pages think it's a life-threatening situation to lack the plane. I think most folks, understandably, want one. I *do* think it's more than weenie-ness: those flights are actually quite useful to the nhc, and for our models to provide better forecasts, so they aren't just for fun, but I think all of us think this is the strongest storm of the season and as such, we want to know if it'll make cat 5, or where it is as a cat 4. Wilma had a 9 mile eye that contracted down to 2 nm at peak strength. I did see a couple comments talking about scientific research and you're right...research won't be adversely impacted. Obviously it will be if someone was going to do a case study of this particular storm but not in the grand scheme of hurricane research. 

To explain the sandwich thing a bit more, @Prospero, when you get into the land of crazy measurements, either with radar or satellite, you eventually run off the end of the color scale. That's what you're seeing there basically. Those are actually overshooting -90 or colder tops. You can overlay lightning on them at weathernerds.org to confirm that. Remember that lightning indicates charge separation, frozen water droplets, and strong updrafts...things you see in strong tstorm cells. 

I wish there was a button for "concur" or "this is the correct answer". Like I feel like the trophy does that but it says thanks. There's no, "yeah that" button.

This is the best storm presentation this season, I can say that. 

7 minutes ago, Prospero said:

This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is.

It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon?

Sandwich info:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/documents/SandwichProduct.pdf

Summary: 

-It is a "sandwich" of both visible + IR imagery. It is useful during the daytime. 

-It allows you to better visualize both the top, and lower layers, of a storm rather than just one or the other. 

Edit: Answer to your question:

As with any other temp-based IR, different colors correspond to different cloud temperatures, and thus heights and intensities of updrafts. As you know, hurricanes are collections of tstorms. So, you have a few regions which will overshoot the others. Perfectly normal. 

Lol, we don't know what the issue is. It could be an instrument failure, it could be that someone on the crew came down with covid and the entire crew had to quarantine and they had to clean the plane. We *don't* know what the cause was. Flights are not cheap...so, no, it's a big cost, but that isn't the point. The pentagon has basically unlimited money so the problem here is not financial. They have flown a ton of missions this year into tons of storms. I used to study aviation bc I wanted to be a pilot. I can say with certainty that while aircraft are designed to handle weather, they aren't designed to fly regularly through strong hurricane eyewalls. Stuff breaks. Maybe the dropsonde mechanism failed. They did a dropsonde test shortly after getting over the water and right after they turned around. That's not normal. The mslp data stopped reporting after around 45 minutes, maybe that sensor failed. They could have had an engine failure, a pressurization failure, a warning indicator in the cockpit. Point is: a lot of stuff can happen. If the crew's safety is at risk, or the mission can't measure something it needs, they can't go. It isn't monetarily related and it isn't because they aren't trying. There are only so many crews to do these flights--they can't have everyone on duty at one time because then, no one would be available for the next flight. That said, at this point, if I were the nhc, I would call up a noaa plane if I could. I'm not them though and I'm confident they have good reasons. Remember that most places in the world don't get a flight into the eye...they just get satellite imagery and have to guess. We're spoiled in the atlantic. No one flew into Goni or Haiyan, yet somehow scientists were able to estimate the winds anyway. I know some of the experts in this field...they're good at what they do, and I trust them with or without a plane. I just *want* a plane because it would be helpful for storm structure, model guidance, track guidance, and pure weenie-ness. 

Yeah, I am frustrated as well. I used to know Tomer. Smart kid. God I miss having potential. Anyways, I agree that the pattern of issues we've had recently with recon is disappointing. Smh. Also I did mention earlier that the moment this thing looked worse than perfect we'd have posters on here saying it's over. And wham bam they are. Could it be? Sure. Does that make ANY sense based on physics? No. Not at all. ERCs are common. Intensity fluctuations are common. The storm has a long time to go, and the *trend* given the environment is *up*. I do think we missed out on a potential historic data point by missing an in situ measurement. The lack of aircraft data is killing me. This storm isn't going to weaken any time soon. Don't worry folks, there's plenty of time to be excited by good appearances and then worried when it looks worse again for another 18 hours or so *grabs popcorn*.

Edit: can someone ask the NOAA hurricane hunters to give it a go? 

As I said a few hours ago, lots of lightning can signal an ERC. This is a small eye. Look at the cloud tops outside the eye, see the secondary eye there? The guidance yesterday suggested an erc could happen. If an erc occurs, the storm will re-strengthen again. ERCs take several hours usually to complete.