Reddogg

A national lockdown is the wrong way to go. The virus is not going to go away because people are staying home. In just about every state hospitals are not over-whelmed. In the NE, shutting down would be ridiculous with positive rates of 1%, very few Hospitalizations and almost no deaths. The south will reach saturation with a 1/4 of the deaths that NY had. The average age of hospitalized us way down in most places. Stop the panic.

I think some of the states being added to the list are purely a result of testing - the percent positives are flat but when testing goes up you get more positives driving the state over 10 per 100,000. Look at DE, and MD for example. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/maryland Other states like Montana and Alaska have really low positive rates (2-3 %) slight increases in percent positive but also increases tests. Montana has one day which causes it to be on the list (401 new cases).

Shutting down is not why other countries are doing well. Seasonality and saturation are the reason for the slow down of the virus. And a population a 4x the USA.

What is your basis for saying this? Highest antibody rate, approximately 1% positive Rate, same curve as most of Europe where there are no major issues. The compete devastation of March and April leaves BY in a better place than most places.

That or seasonality or herd immunity at much lower level. There are some new studies showing more immunity than expected -- tcell recognition being a big part of it. Sweden is over the hump like the rest of Europe albeit with more deaths than many countries) so I am not convinced the behavior of the citizens explains the disappearance of the virus in Europe. I am not trying to excuse the behavior of many but think the data coming out of Europe is interesting and potentially encouraging.

Good news today - positive test rate below 1% again after ticking up the last couple of days.