twistingtornado

Looks like the tornado significantly weakened or lifted before hitting Wilsonville.

A large concern with this setup is the potential for wedge tornadoes overnight in a region notorious for after-dark tornado outbreaks. As the evening wanes and the nocturnal LLJ ramps up, this setup is screaming danger in the 0-1 km layer over Alabama. Textbook long/looping hodographs, shear vectors with a large magnitude component normal to the front, and extremely low LCL heights. Not what you want to see at any time, let alone 12-4 am. These rain wrapped wedges may be hard to make out during the day, let alone at night. Nobody should attempt to confirm these.

Was going to post this last night, I'll post it now that some skeptics have showed up before the nocturnal LLJ has fully ramped up.

Impressive supercell cycling, going from one intense circulation to the next (which was really two circulations). Glad to hear it was in a rural area, hopefully nobody got hurt.

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
436 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

MSC023-231000-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-200423T1000Z/
Clarke MS-
436 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
CLARKE COUNTY...

At 436 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Goodwater, or 15
miles northwest of Waynesboro, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southern Clarke County, including the following locations... Shubuta.

Strong tornado? With those wind profiles? Yeah, good luck. They're a lot worse than the forecasted wind profiles. Less aircraft observations looks like it definitely had an impact on forecasting this event.

Circulation to the south now also has TDS.

Confirmed TDS on couplet east of Jackson

A little bit earlier south of Augusta, GA. Circulation has broadened since then.

Rain-wrapped tornadoes at 4:30 am, not ideal.

TDS near Slater-Marietta, SC

17 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Am I the only one here shocked by FCC failing to warn MULTIPLE tornadoes on the ground? I’ve never seen anything like this before.

It can be quite tricky to get warnings out in time with all these brief spin up tornadoes in a QLCS. Not uncommon to put the wording for possible tornado into the severe thunderstorm warning, which is what I believe they did here.

11 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said:

Well at least downtown Atlanta missed the bullet. What has been going on with the NWS in this area? A number of tds’s have been warned late or not at all tonight. 
 

Also, new line of storms forming out west. I thought this was supposed to be the last of it. Any tornado potential with those as well?

They're right on the cold front, so no.

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Hopefully it weakens before it gets to Macon. Yikes. If not, hopefully it stays to the north.

It would have to take the mother of all right turns to get to Macon, which isn't going to happen. It will stay well north of Macon.

Looks like it's weakening anyway.

4 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Unreal how fast this flared up and then died out. Virtually no chance to warn for something like this. 

https://twitter.com/wxmatt/status/1249558119073669120

Ah, I see now. It's earlier than the data I'm looking at. Looked like a very brief spin up.

5 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said:

Good call, small tds now, though still not warned.

There's no TDS. No couplet either.

Picture of that tornado reminds me a ton of the Hackleburg/Phil Campbell tornado on 4/27/2011.

The 06/07/08z HRRR runs have a cluster of supercells forming over western Mississippi by 21z that track into northern Alabama. NWS in Huntsville is describing the HRRR as an outlier in how far north it lifts the warm front- most models lift the warm front through at least northeastern AL, while HRRR is lifting the warm front north of the AL/TN border. That'd be the worst case scenario for northern AL, but at least it's an outlier. Warm front is still one thing to keep an eye on when looking at observations today.

Correlation coefficient shows that it's rain wrapping around the RFD, not a debris ball. So not a TDS. Radar station is to the NE, so the velocity signature in the screenshot I posted isn't as impressive as it may appear to the untrained eye. Can say the velocity signature has been all over the place in the past 15-20 min.

23 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

One of the IA warnings goes right up to the MS River. Can't imagine it will stay surface-based into WI though, given Madison is 45/43. Wasn't expecting this, though:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0257.html

SPC has baffled me all day, and then this. I don't know how they expect to get the greatest short-term threat for tornadoes out of elevated convection in southern Wisconsin.

Looks like that supercell that previously had a radar confirmed tornado in AR has recycled and the circulation has tightened up. And yup tornado warned, radar indicated currently. Jonesboro is included in this tornado warning. I'd take this one very seriously.

5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Look at the VWP from DMX before deciding that.

Wasn't talking about Iowa, was talking about the area highlighted for long track tornadoes in Missouri in Mesoscale Discussion 250. Currently isn't in a watch.