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SUNYGRAD

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    February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, BG_Slick said:

    main batch of precipitation has moved through.  Only light rain now.   Looks like maybe .10 to .15 accrual on trees.  Sleet seemed to help and temps went above freezing during heavier rain (latent heat release?)  Hopefully we can melt these trees off before temps drop again.  (32.5 / 31)

    Probably dynamic cooling.

    February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, griteater said:

    One thing to think about with respect to sleet vs freezing rain when looking at soundings...the general rule is that once the warm layer exceeds +3C, the snowflake dropping down will completely melt (instead of partial melting of the snowflake when the warm layer is between +1C and +3C).  Once full melting of the snowflake occurs, the raindrop can't refreeze back into sleet because it no longer has ice nuclei to refreeze onto.  As long as the snowflake only partially melts, it can refreeze back into sleet because it still has ice nuclei contained in it.

    See the bolded text below from: https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/91745/7-wintery-facts-about-ice-freezing-rain-and-sleet

    Freezing rain forms when there’s an inversion layer present during a winter storm. An inversion layer occurs when a layer of warm air gets sandwiched between two colder air masses. Snowflakes fall through the warm layer and completely melt before reentering the subfreezing air near the surface. This newly formed raindrop can’t freeze back into ice because it doesn’t have a nucleus around which to freeze, so the raindrop becomes supercooled, meaning it remains in liquid state even as its temperature drops below freezing. Once the supercooled raindrop reaches the ground, the water instantly freezes into ice.

    Skew-T Parameters and Indices (weather.gov)

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    From RAH discussion this morning.  LOL

    The great Appalachian chain has not moved that I have noticed (even
    with the Sparta earthquakes and tremors this year)    . So, unless the
    high becomes centered to our NNE (arctic air air will not roll down
    the eastern seaboard into the Carolina`s). It will stay west of the
    Appalachians.
     

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 6

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

    Some thoughts:

    - I would not rely on the 12km NAM precip shield depiction. Something I first noticed tracking that early Jan 2018 coastal is that it is pretty terrible and inconsistent at rendering these things, with a lot of features that aren't supported by synoptics/surface features. I think they're fun to look at but I don't take them very seriously. I trust the 3km depiction more.

    - Flipside: I think somebody is going to get dry-slotted and shafted. Don't know who, but it's just the nature of these transfers of lows from inland to the coast. 

    - 3km NAM is showing the "splotchy" nature of the precip shield really well- that's how it will turn out! It will be feast or famine! One lucky locale may even see a little thundersnow, not out of the question! Don't know who. 

     

    I agree with your mention of dry slot and any transfer.  It will be interesting to see how the upcoming 00Z operational Euro depicts event

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