snowmaker

In my opinion which isn’t much, things right now look like west and middle Tennessee’s best chance at winter weather is Tuesday. After that rain Sunday it looks like it may be cold enough for a decent window of frozen on Tuesday. The next slug of moisture for Wednesday and wednesday night looks a little warm right now. Freezing line and frozen precip looks just north of Ohio River area. Of course with arctic boundaries at 4-5 days away things can still change. 

Next week does not look boring weather wise that is for sure no matter what happens.

Can’t wait to see what that Canadian run produced. That 31st-2nd Period looked like a nasty looking winter storm for Tennessee on this run. 0z gfs is a colder run through the 2nd but most frozen looks to be in Kentucky most of the duration. But it did trend colder in that timeframe but warms up quite a bit as the run goes. It will be interesting to see the ensembles of all modeling tomorrow.

12 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The gfs Ensembles don't agree with the operation at all. I completely understand the frustration but the Ensembles really haven't changed that much the past several runs.  Cold works in her around the 2nd through the 9th but things may teter back and fourth a bit. Take a deep breath and enjoy life.

And that is the main thing no doubt. The ensembles carry a ton more weight than a individual control run.  Especially at this range out at 6-8 days.

I am not sweating the storm at all based on the GFS. I am just amazed at how bad the run to run consistency has been with the GFS. I think most realize it’s just one deterministic run but the lack of consistency in the gfs is noted. 

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I believe we are using a further upgraded version of the GFS vs last winter and it's doing miserably.

They are, and what is crazy the old GFS was on a good roll when they took it out of service. The upgrade has been like a fast ball pitcher with no control, from one pitch to the next it could be anywhere.

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Yeah, should we lean more towards the Euro? I don't really know how the models have faired this winter or even how accurate they are with these over running setups. But the GFS has has been a completely different solution each run often this winter. 

I was on a Midwest forum during this past storm that cut to our northwest. Most on there said the euro and Canadian handled that storm the best. Of course that is no guarantee how any of them will handle the next one. But I would probably lean euro right now but like to digest all 3 because a lot of times it’s a split the difference type of deal to some degree.

Yes the euro and Canadian seem to not have as wild fluctuations. Not that they don’t but the GFS seems to be leading in extreme run to run changes. At least it did have a boundary of precip in that timeframe even if the temps were way warm and the precip was well south.

Yes that run looks odd suppressed but warmer in that time frame. 

No doubt you can’t take every control run to heart at 7-10 days out. I look for when models kind of latch on to the same general idea. Hopefully in the next 2-3 days we will start seeing models latch on to where this arctic boundary will set up. Looking at ensembles for that time frame is the key right now for better guidance. Like Carver was saying the boundary could be anywhere from the Ohio River to the Plateau or through central Mississippi and over the mountains. Time will tell.

I agree models have hitting on this timeframe. Just exactly where the boundary will be is the key. The 1st-3rd timeframe is for sure one to watch as it is in the 7-8 day range.

Euro is colder past 162 and another disturbance comes across 24 hours later. 

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian maintained the cold at least. 

And actually generally held on to a system around the 1st as well.

It’s crazy the run to run inconsistency especially on the gfs. Glad it’s not just me. 

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z CMC....might want to take a look at that if you live in middle and west TN. At d8-10, that isn't can kicking when talking details in a pattern vs long wave patterns.  Details are going to change over and over again.  That said, the CMC run is lights out if true.

Yes I just saw the Canadian run, that would be a major ice storm if taken verbatim. I saw euro 12z on pivotal. Oops sorry it is not up to date yet. My bad. 

12Gfs storms not there and temps are warmer around the first week of feb than before. Of course it will change. Maybe it will come back. Just hope the can kicking isn’t starting again. Looking for something to show up on modeling and stick. This storm to our northwest has been there for over a week and hasn’t hardly budged. 

That would be a good winter snowstorm right there!

Them 2 storms in the long range are in a good spot for the long range I think. As it sits it isn’t real good for west tenn and I am on far northwest flank. It doesn’t look like it would take much of a northwest jog in the scenario to put much more of Tennessee in play. Just 50-70 miles. Of course I realize that is just one control run at a very long range so I am just talking hypothetically. I do like how the last few runs all models are trending colder.

Yep them overrunning events can sneak up on you sometimes. 

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles when talking February.   The GFS deterministic run at this range is like a single member of the GEFS at this range.  It may show us certain trends, but might want to take a look at the ensembles before being swayed.  

Oh I totally agree on that. 

18z GFS was a warm run into February. Back and forth.

I am naturally a positive person, but it seems like our area is being teased a lot only for things to back off closer in time. East Tennessee higher elevations may get in on these next 2 systems a little. But west and middle just can’t seem to hit the right combo so far, maybe if I step away from model watching for a while things will change. Plenty of time but I would like to at least get 1 decent system in the next 10-15 days. If it comes down to waiting on March it gets even more iffy usually and hard to pull off a good week or 10 day pattern of winter.

Oh man let things come together! ☃️

5 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That Nino pattern may fall somewhat inline with the late SSW typical affect. If so, we'll some some late wintry weather.

This is what I was thinking about if we do transition toward Nino at the same time of feeling effects of SSW. I know things with the ssw can go the other direction but that combo could be good. But I hope whatever winter weather we get that by the first of April we break warm. I love winter and even a great march snowstorm but as March ends I am ready for spring.

Question for folks more knowledgeable than me, what effects do we expect to see from this ssw have on our weather 2-3 weeks down the road? I know they can lend different results or impacts. I guess I am wondering if it will have a major impact one way or the other. Just curious on thoughts.