Ogmios

42 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Woah. The gfs develops the secondary further south and almost keeps me as all frozen. Need to monitor this. Might be a blip run.

Well considering the recent trends for Thursday hoping it does not go further to the south then it already is (The Tri Counties score sizable snowfall) lets hope for this to be a continuing trend and not a blip.  This particular track is the second most common one that has been predicted in the alternative universe, and if it works out it is not a big storm on the latest models but it will bring a widespread 10-15 cm (that is what we might as well call in translation 4-6 inches). 

The update from the 12Z for anyone interested.

Now I can say Halifax you are getting 2-4 inches based on a weakening and further southern track, same for Valley with the tri-counties scoring on this one.  Note: The NAM also trended weaker.  Even the next system looks weaker, same track as 6Z, but with less warmth.  So that is two minor systems on this run.

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Do you wean "warming' or "warning"?  Either way, hopefully the Maine coast will avoid much taint.

Each run goes further north which does not bode well if the trend continues to go that path.  Even in my area we are still up for a good 3-6 inches in my area but if this trend continues I will surely join Hazey in his 2-4 range getting more rain in Halifax then Snow.  But maybe if they "Stop the Widening it is a tradition - to quote an old Maine Protest in the early 2000's on US Hwy 1 ) we might start seeing a more southern track look where we all can benefit with a good thumping of at least 6+ inches to help snow mobiles.  

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What? Better read the other thread for weekend storm if that’s what you’re talking about 

 Oops  your right this one is the weekend event that I am talking about.  This particular storm for this thread  is set to dump 4-6 inches which works out nice for me.

The track at the 6Z run is progressively taking the low further north, it no longer is tracking along the water's edge of the coast but takes it along the coast on the land bringing temperatures up in some locations by a touch of a degree.  A brief 1-3 inches over southern New England as the trend seems to be further north every run as it progressively becomes a mostly rain event, even coastal Maine through the southern Maritimes are trending towards that fate at this point (though not there yet except southern Nova Scotia already is mostly rain including Hazey).

Note: 6:46 Atlantic Standard Time

Quoted Weekend Storm for Saturday January 18 to Sunday January 19, 2020

The main precipitation band is moving on and precipitation seems to have changed over to a very tail end light snow with temperatures still at 30 degrees.  Lots of ice on the ground that looks like a few centremetres of snow.

ice pellets and snow has given way to freezing rain with current temperature at 30 degrees.

4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Yup pretty much cleaned out here too. That’s what happens when 15/20:1 ratio snow meets 60 degree weather. No chance No meat in the pack. Vaporized. What part of the valley you in?

Kentville 

28 degrees in my part of the valley with a mix of ice pellets and snow - 1+ inches of ice pellets on the ground rate now after we lost all 10 inches yesterday with record temperature of 60 degrees. 

Freezing Rain Warning with 20-30 mm (0.8-1.1 in) of the ice to bring about a frozen lake after the meltdown we are about to get from the one and only big warm-up.  I would not be surprised if we have a lot of power outages.

From Brett Anderson:

"There are some signals that the pattern may flip to a colder east, milder west sometime in February, but confidence is low at this point. More on that later as we get closer to February."

Source

I would say at least 5'' down closing in on 6'' with snow starting to ease under lighter greens as per Environment Canada weather service radar.  This has over performed over the 4'' mark.

Edit: Snowfall Warnings have been expanded to include Kings County, and Cumberland County as snowfall is expected to reach 15 cm - 6 inches by midnight

Snow has started over 1 hour ago and it is picking up gradually with about 1 cm - 0.3 inches on the ground with heavier snow on the radar inbound.

There are meteorologists stating that there is a sign of a winter cancel signal for both Europe and much of the East until you get into New Hampshire all because of either a plot showing the cold anomalies reaching later in the outlook literally to the ground or a 30 day Euro model map of overall temperatures depicting in many areas of 2 degrees above normal.  I do not know what to think except rationally it is best for us to remain calm and take the data for what it is, accept it for what it is and push for understanding on just how we do not know how climate change is affecting the planet whether you believe in the coming of an Ice Age, or just the Grand Solar Minimum, or Global Warming.  I have heard rumors of an interaction between the sun and an unknown binary dead star for quite some time, but that is my conjecture.  

With a prolonged -PNA does it not look good for cold weather for New England in the long term over the extended period of time, as that air expands winter based on Historical records? But it would keep the Mid Atlantic snow fans miserable with that suppressed ridge.

There are snowfall warnings posted for the province of Nova Scotia expecting 6-9 inches for areas Lunenburg County,  north and eastwards

Most areas of western Nova Scotia which includes Cumberland, Kings, are under Special Weather statements with a straight out 4 inches expected, some may get more and could receive warnings as the track and intensity may shift slightly particularly for border locations as several of the models have varied on snowfall amounts closer to be in the range of 4-6 with many locations closer to 6 close to the border of the snowfall warning; moving towards the range of 2-4 in the deep southern tip of Nova Scotia

The unofficial small city of Sydney is expecting a brief changeover to rain which also retains the snowfall warning

Newfoundland is next to receive that football, and it appears our friendly neighborhood individual from that area is expecting the worst of fates compared to those who are missing out on this system as it appears to be the winter enthusiast worst enemy we like to call: RAIN

My subjective prediction is that the mid Atlantic is going to get hit with a surprise major blizzard that will cripple the city for a few days in mid February. 

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Possibly, and then if we get in a colder/snowy pattern, Judah will change his tune and say "as predicted" 

So he would just ignore his ignorance and pretend it never happened.  

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We are in a what can go wrong will go wrong state. Jan 21st can’t come soon enough.

Except the PNA is still off the wall negative at that point, and when Juden Cohen tweets that he does not expect any real cold into eastern North America especially on the SNE side anytime soon, your ears need to be open to that probability that the pattern that you get now is the overall pattern of the winter and may never change until it is already over. 

Two inches or 5 cm my estimation down in the valley rate now, or at least in my neck of the woods which is a skiff of snow to be brushed off.  At least the local kids get to go snow sledding again.

Looks like the models are trending towards the end of that ridge at the end of the run (looks improved but it is not over) but as it is said it does not hold weight in fantasy land especially with the PNA still strongly negative though trending more positive then where it is expected to be.  So we will see if changes are a foot whether that holds or not.

Expect to cash in on 2-4 inches of snow where I live but with the pattern we are in I would not be surprised if we end up with a mere 1 inch.  Brett Anderson of Accuweather predicted this pattern back in October.

4 hours ago, Hazey said:

Nice to see the euro on board. Very similar track to the ukie.

GFS is beginning to agree with the track but it is not yet on board for any real significant snow especially if you live along the coast on Nova Scotia which usually gets the shaft especially for areas south of Lunenburg County.  So while many in New England are complaining about the second strait year of the lack of snow, many in Nova Scotia are on track for a 3rd year in a row of well below average snowfall.  The diffference last year is that Nova Scotia averaged rate on the normal in terms of temperature, with colder nights, well below average sunny days and above average storms.

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like February and March.

CanSIPS says think again:

Issued Jan 1, 2020

For posterity Jan 2020                                                                                                                   Feb 2020 - Gotta keep the -PNA

March 2020 - Spreading my warmth in the western expansion