Imneversatisfied

Everything but the kitchen sink coming down here in Alpena. Seems to have more snow mixed in during heavier banding. Winds E at 30mph. Already 1k without power.

Cold,rainy,windy night for me. Could have have been a hell of snow storm... This one's going to leave me burned for awhile...

7 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

12z NAM has 44 inches here.   

Geni ready to go, tractor gassed up, firewood stocked, roast cooking.  Still need to run to town for a few things as I imagine roads out this way will be impassible for a couple days with tree damage.

Enjoy! Looking like a lil fun here in Alpena around midnight per mesoscale models. Fingers crossed for snow! Models are also showing a possible nice wrap around snow band Wed night here.

Everyone have fun that got surprised by the last minute west shift on this one,was really hoping for a big dog here in Alpena. Green Bay might steal it. Looking like 1-3" thru Thursday. Maybe the NAM will still reel this one in (shows 6")? Lol The heaviest precip comes thru in the middle of the night so that's a positive I guess. Still grasping at straws for colder than forecasted temps,dynamic cooling effect,an east,south shift, or some lake enhancement with the strong NE winds. I really wanna ride my sled one last time lol

The 18z runs all seem to be holding their ground. Really sucks for me in Alpena as that bullseye was over my area in MI for 5 days on global models,then they shifted west last night big time. Mesoscale models continue east tho. Dare I hug the NAM ect??? Lol The rug might have been pulled one last time on me this snow season. Should be an interesting storm to nowcast!

12z Global runs maintain earlier west shift, mesoscale holds their ground east. Which ones will cave?

The models are not strong with this one lol

A whole state shift west? lol Hard to tell what's going to happen.

Seems like over night the long range models shifted Wednesdays storm west,vs short term models that hold onto the path shown by long range the past 5 days. Looking like anywhere between 2-18" lol Really hoping for one last 6"+ storm here in Alpena, Michigan.

Does anyone have access to the NWS blend model snowfall forecast for Michigan area thru Thurs? I'd appreciate it greatly if posted.

I'm still closely watching the Wednesday storm. Looking more and more likely that I will receive atleast 6" of cement snow to finish off the winter. NOAA APX is beginning to focus in on the potential.

"Latest 00Z runs of deterministic guidance (GFS, ECMWF, GDPS) all depict a QPF bullseye of around 1.5 to 2.5 over NE lower. This reflects the enhanced lift from the upper level shortwave deepening the closed low as they meet and the wave rotates around the low. With this scenario, heavy wet snow is seen in model sounding profiles and combined with gusty surface winds."

I'm looking forward to one last rip on my sled,then it's time to put it away and bring out my summer truck and car. 

35 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

@mississaugasnowWatching the Tues-Thurs storm closely right now. Still a few days out but with the lingering cold air from the high in Quebec, there could be the potential for a messy storm across the GTA. Potential is there for rain, ice pellets, and snow. Might be winter's grand finale. 

I've been doing the same for 3-5 days now. Past runs of GFS,CMC and ECMWF have  estimated 6-18" accumulations for Alpena. Looking like one last potential for a nice concrete snowstorm and a rip on the old Yamaha snowmobile!

Well the storm definitely under performed in Alpena,altho it was pretty nasty last night for a couple hours. I'd say we got about 10" and 2-3' drifts. Could get a couple more inches thru Monday. 

Storm is just getting going here in Alpena. Wind around 30mph and heavy snow on radar knocking on my door. Hoping for some thunder snow and crazy hourly rates. Forecast still calling for 12-18" and 55mph gusts.The fun begins!

NWS APX upgraded Alpena to a blizzard warning. This could be epic! Too bad I hurt my back yesterday fixing my truck so I won't be able to enjoy it as much as I could. Hopefully I'll b able to snowblow myself out. I got nowhere to go tho thankfully.

6 minutes ago, TravisWx said:

From APX. Topped off my gas can for the snowblower this evening. Locals already hitting the grocery stores heavy in anticipation of this weekend storm.

I can't recall a snow fall map with such high accumulations and 50 mph winds in my 37 years. I'll be posting pics and have a cam at my place and two at my parents about 10 min north of Alpena. Ready to be buried! 

Looking like I could be in for a historic blizzard here in Alpena. Atleast a foot and 50mph winds. A storm of my dreams! Going to prepare tomorrow. Idk what to even expect for drifts! 

Woke up very surprised to about 6" of snow with 1' drifts! Just finished snowblowing 3 driveways. Looks like a legit blizzard here Friday and Saturday then the Arctic blast comes. Perfect! I feel like a kid again at 37. Lol

Getting the ole dry slot right now with mix. Ground is finally covered. Atlanta,MI is about 30 miles away inland and has 4" otg. Hopefully once it passes and heaviest returns move over,can stack some flakes thru the night.

Bright returns on radar have begun to move into the Alpena area. All snow so far. Just beginning to accumulate on grass. 18z GFS has the low even farther SE. Me likey! Hope it's the last time I see grass for a few months.

43 minutes ago, TravisWx said:

It does look like that precip moved SE on the 12z 3km NAM, a little more amped too for total snowfall. I don't know though. This winter storm is weird. APX still says almost nothing for snowfall. Definitely a nowcast system. 

12z NAM has a nice defo band and 976mb low just SE. Hoping to nowcast blizzard conditions this tonight lol

I might be wish casting but looks to me 12z runs are trending slp SE. Anyone confirm?

Snow shower just started in Alpena! Was expecting rain. Hopefully it stays flakes. 

Temp is at 35 with 20 mph E wind in Alpena this morning. Even with the SE trend still not feeling good about rain/mix forecast of only 1-2" by APX. I don't know what to think really. Back to nowcasting. Lol My final call is 3" by Wed afternoon. Starts this morning around noon. Most models are showing all snow until the low is just offshore tonight then a chance of mixing.  Fingers crossed the warm tongue stays short.

16 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

What has the total snowfall been up there this season? I’m up there sometimes for work (in the quarrying industry) and it’s usually a damn tundra this time of year

We are at roughly 12" average is 28". Looks like the next storm might tundra me. Lost faith in this one. Lol