UniversesBelowNormal

Looks like about 4 days of negative all Winter.

I wonder if the Nino 1+2 stuff is just reflecting of the current warm pattern... and if ENSO will make a reemergence. It looked like we were going El Nino, may still go weak El Nino.

Super warm March.. can already feel it in late February, one of the warmest I remember. There's no "space" for variation. (No room for error down, can't really get to warm too cause then Summer would be a dud (for me))

I'm not sure we are anywhere near that regime. It seems even more +NAO now. We would have to go backwards, I think

I wonder if I didn't predict it what it would be... maybe another +NAO Winter? (unbelievable like 34 straight months).

You got to worry about these over-extended -PNA Winter's... (I said once that 90% of the world population doesn't see snow)

looks like an El Nino is developing for 2020 as per the subsurface..

I was wrong.

Climate still not behaving like anything ordinary.. You wouldn't get this extreme wintertime -PNA in this ENSO, unless anomaly (5-10%)

2019 ENSO cancel lol

Subsurface is pretty classic El Nino configuration. the pattern doesn't feel like a Winter- El Nino above +0.5 though. Also colder wave around 160W, -200m may bias short term conditions to more -PNA (vs models)

The -NAO progged days 5-15 ups the chances, I think. I'm surprised no one bought up on it.

I'm surprised you all see the same thing..

I was surprised to see the El Nino's resurgence. +PNA from 2013-2017 did not hold in non-El Nino conditions. These are on models for the next 15 days.

Upon further review, box A comes in at -0.30, box B -0.80 so it's about -0.55-0.60 for the Winter. I bet this will happen.