ikcarsky

Masks mandates make many feel muzzled by the State.

10 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

We are catching a way higher proportion of infections now, so the ratio of cases-hospitalizations-deaths appears much higher. Most people are being fairly careful, especially so when they see an outbreak in their community and then take further action, which can drive the Rt back to near or under 1.  

True.  But that implies an even lower IFR, and even more immune individuals.  In the end there's just no realistic scenario where surges in hospitalizations are maintained for long periods of time.

13 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

People seem to be forgetting that all of the data we have available to us thus far was generated during a legitimate quarantine. What I'm trying to say is, if everyone but the 1% who are at greatest risk of dropping dead (not being severely ill, which could be anyone, but dropping dead) suddenly stops taking the virus seriously, then you can be DAMN well sure that those hospitals are going to be extremely overwhelmed. And in this case, transiency - or a lack thereof - is entirely irrelevant, because the second that there are people in this country who are  unable to obtain adequate medical attention because of a lack of space, we'll know that we have failed as a nation. 

This is a gross exaggeration and unsupported by case and hospitalization data.  Initial "first wave" case growth is exponential and hits the susceptible population hard when left unimpeded.  Once the virus runs through this population and has to work through tougher, fitter organisms, the new infections generally lead to milder cases.  We see this now in Europe where countries that crushed their first wave (Czech Republic) are seeing proportionally more severe cases than countries that were hit hard by their first wave (UK, France, etc.).

12 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Let's forget the regular flu season will be taking off soon to further overwhelming the hospitals 

Flu season is probably canceled, possibly because COVID is blocking it.  Note how 2019 matched 2020 until COVID-19 popped up (log scale).  And that's not for lack of flu testing either.  We'll know for sure in a few weeks.

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The only problem with that is you overwhelm the hospitals creating an even bigger problem because now no one can get any medical treatment 

Data suggests this is a transient problem as the virus makes its first pass through the more susceptible population.  This seems to be happening in states like WI now (and my state), where the spring surge was attenuated.  But once the virus passes completely through the susceptible population the rate of hospitalizations drop.  This may have happened in NYC, and I think that as autumn drags on we'll see their new cases go up while their hospitalizations will only rise slowly.  Also we're getting better at treatment (those who remember my first rants in this thread know that I think we could be doing much better though).

Still I do not disagree that making public health measures voluntary would be pretty rough for about 1% of the population.  We know who they are mostly likely to be (elders with comorbidities), and they should voluntarily adopt their own protective measures.

At the risk of being "inhumane": it's time to accept defeat.  The virus is now endemic, not just in the US but the West as a whole.  It has won, and we've socially exhausted our ability to tolerate further lockdowns.  We had our chance to make lockdowns work and we failed.  Time to embrace that fact and restore overall quality of life by making all public health measures voluntary. If the State still wanted to do something useful, engage in mass distribution of Vitamin D and zinc supplements.  Media messaging and narratives should change to encourage prophylaxis and overall fitness (e.g. outdoor activity, weight loss) should be emphasized.  But ultimately let individuals take charge of their own health and act as they deem fit.  And open up everything.  (But I know this isn't going to happen.)

Nine months into this pandemic and there's still a lot we don't know.  So many factors influence the spread of COVID-19, yet we all have a tendency to either wholly embrace or completely disregard the importance of any such factor depending on our biases.  For example at this point I've heard it said that:

• Masks obviously don't work because of the new case surge (even though their ability to arrest droplets is beyond doubt)
• Masks work but the people are at fault for succumbing to lockdown fatigue (even though nearly all temperate NH states/countries are surging simultaneously)
• Cross-reactive T-cell immunity means herd immunity is almost here
• Cross-reactive T-cell immunity must be a myth (even though it is now well documented)
• The POTUS is to be blamed for the new surge in cases (in Europe too?)
• The POTUS can't be held responsible for any pandemic outcome (but is he not in charge?)

I think there's at least a grain of truth in each one of these statements.  But the question is how much?  And how does this influence individual and authority action?

Personally, I would let people take responsibility for their own health, and end all public health measures, save those which spread information about risk reduction.  I understood the need for lockdown in the spring but now public health measures are really starting to take a severe social and economic toll, that in my estimation now outweigh the physical toll to be caused by the virus.  But that's just in my biased estimation.

3 hours ago, mattb65 said:

You do understand the dosing for hydroxychloroquine is different from chloroquine, right? .... Right?

You understand the UK study wasn't looking at chloroquine at all, right? Your concerns about toxic doses of a drug not even being studied makes you look like an idiot. You understand this?

The drug doesn't work, it just doesn't, sorry.

I prescribe hydroxychloroquine for a handful of neurologic diseases it can be a useful drug and generally well tolerated. It just doesn't work against covid. There isn't enough zinc and ionophore magic that you can wish upon it for it to work. Give it up. Move on. 

You are right; I should have been more careful.  Still, the medicinal effects of CQ and HCQ are very similar (as are the molecules, a single hydroxy group makes the difference.  Even the CDC page I linked lumps them together) and I at some point I began to assume equivalency in all respects.  I looked into this a bit more and it appears HCQ is favored in modern times because the hydroxy group reduces the toxicity.  Thanks for pointing that out.

Having said that, the dosing in the UK RECOVERY trial (2.0 g in first 12 h, 0.4 g every 12 h for up to 9 days after that) still appears high to me.  For acute malaria treatment, 1.6 g in first 24 h/2.0 g total in 48 h is standard; for prevention, the standard is merely 0.4 g per WEEK.  Human toxicity studies are lacking (at least from what I could find) but if HCQ is really 2-3 times less toxic than CQ that puts a toxic dose of HCQ at around 3.0 g/24 h, thus the RECOVERY trial dosing is still cause for concern, especially given the long half-life of HCQ, many weeks.  But it no longer seems maliciously bad.  Good job.

Not giving up on it though.  Lots of publications now supporting my claim about the benefits of early administration.  The first one linked therein, Ladapo et al., is a meta-analysis of five RCT studies.  24% reduction in cases found, p < 0.05, tells me HCQ works.  And those studies were without regard to zinc, but I guess that's just magic to you.

3 hours ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I've read through the major studies on HCQ.  The only study that showed a benefit was when they combined HCQ with steroids.  But we already know that steroids have been helpful for severe cases, and it was likely the steroids that elicited the benefits there as well.

HCQ has also been studied as a prophylaxis and its been shown as no better than a placebo. I 'm not against placebos.  If a placebo has no side effects, and can make a patient psychologically believe they're getting better - then sure, take it.  Just don't peddle it to others as some magic potion

Great, then maybe you can provide sources, I should like to read them.  But the studies will have to be truly compelling, because now I have seen MANY studies that show a benefit to HCQ, especially when taken with zinc (as per the ionophore hypothesis), and given to patients early on in the progression of the disease.  Obviously this is in complete opposition to your statement "no better than placebo".

6 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why the **** should I believe you or someone anonymous Twitter account over them? Take your conspiracy shit to Facebook and Twitter. 

 

Lol.  Yes why should you believe me?  All I did was demonstrate, using their own publication and other peer-reviewed literature, that the authors of the UK HCQ RECOVERY trial poisoned their HCQ arm using doses that even the CDC indirectly admits are so high that they're toxic.  It's RIGHT THERE in my links, yet you refuse to look.  It's okay, you don't need the blessing of a priest scientist to gaze upon the altar peer-reviewed literature.  Though in your secular religion scientists are flawless and beyond reproach and I can tell I won't be able to convince you otherwise even when I thrust proof in your face.

FWIW, I like the Covid crusher twitter because he doesn't link to articles by mainstream outlets, but directly to the scientific literature, often prior.  There anyone can dig into the data, methodolgy, results, discussion, and conclusions, without any mainstream outlet to curate it for the masses. And when someone has their nose in the raw data, and the actual papers, they can bring valuable contributions not found elsewhere.

14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Q anon trash. 

I linked directly to the CDC, the UK HCQ RECOVERY trial preprint, and the WHO.  If that's QAnon trash I'm impressed; I wasn't aware he made reasoned arguments.  Maybe I should take him more seriously?

Meanwhile seasonality confirmed.  The case trends in the NH are very synchronous, including in my state which is setting new case records.

1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Yes, they refused to administer it because they know it doesn’t work.  Most doctors that aren’t quacks know this.

And you know this for sure?  Then maybe you can explain something to me.  The CDC relies heavily upon the results of the UK HCQ RECOVERY trial in recommending against the use of HCQ.  The CDC also just paragraphs later mentions 1.2 g in 24 h is a toxic dose of chloroquine (which is correct, and 2.0 g is often a lethal dose).  So why I should I not discard the results of the UK RECOVERY investigation when they administered 2.4 g of HCQ in the first 24 h? And to gravely ill patients no less -- is that not absurd, when the hypothesized antiviral mechanism is inhibition of viral RNA replication, and should thus be studied principally in prophylaxis?  Randomized and controlled means little when the study methodology is flawed.

Or do you just know this because you this is what the mainstream media and their associated lab coat-wearing individuals told you to think, and if you question them you're a science denier?

On 10/7/2020 at 8:45 PM, RobertSul said:

Why isn’t it he on it now if we’ve had this correction for over a month now?

Also, it was heavily promoted back in April, WAY before any kind of real trial and scientific-based conclusions could’ve been made.

So we can't act on reasonable hypotheses and mechanisms of action while we wait for the data to arrive?  Hydroxychloroquine is one of our oldest drugs, closely related chloroquine is almost a century old.  The scientific establishment has had plenty of time to realize these molecules have antiviral activity -- it has been suggested they help cells regulate their pH and take up zinc, thus inhibiting viral RNA replication.  And because the side effect profile of HCQ is on par with aspirin, and the drug is dirt cheap, why not suggest it as a prophylactic?  HCQ is already given prophylactically as an antimalarial.  No need to go "but muh high power double blind placebo controlled trial" and sulk at home while waiting for that data to come.  Same with Vitamin D and zinc.  We know they are safe and help regulate immune function.  Go supplement NOW.

As to why the President stopped promotion of HCQ, well, remdesivir and Regeneron are IP controlled drugs -- unlike hydroxychloroquine.  Thus very expensive, but very profitable for Gilead and Regeneron.  I sense some incentives lined up here and the President was persuaded against HCQ.  Or the doctors refused to administer it.

On 10/6/2020 at 1:36 PM, RobertSul said:

didn’t push hydroxychloroquine when it clearly didn’t work

"Clearly"? 

Yesterday morning's derecho meant business.  Gusts of up to 90 mph laid waste to a corridor between Wisconsin Rapids and Appleton, leaving tens of thousands without power.  Damage is so extensive that power is expected to be out for several more days and the mayor of Wisconsin Rapids declared the city a disaster area.  Surprised that there's no mainstream coverage of this event whatsoever.  These aren't little unincorporated villages we're talking about but modestly sized population centers.  (Maybe it's because no one was live streaming the event on social media?)

https://www.wsaw.com/content/news/Wisconsin-Rapids-Mayor-Shelter--512989341.html

Starting to hear from people back home in central WI that the damage from the first round this morning was pretty nuts.  Winds of an intensity seen only once in a generation.

4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Also some higher population cities potentially in the path of the main complex include Wasau(39k) and Stevens Point (26K) in the next few hours

Represent...or I would, if I weren't out of state.  Watching this keenly, wonder what I'll come back to next week.

STE got 89'ed.  Called it.  (Though a nearby COOP got to 91.)  Now to lament the fact that I'm out-of-state for a rare high-end severe weather outbreak for my area.

4 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Temps in Southern Wisconsin May be impacted with this early morning MCS; starting in the low to mid 70s as opposed to the progged upper 70s, as well as some cloud cover most likely may make a difference.

Those storms went "poof" when the LLJ did, but they did their job and helped reinforce the cold pool along the I-90 corridor.

The stage is now set.  Visible shows the cirrus canopy will soon be a non-factor as it thins and blows off to the east.  It's clearing out very well in C and W WI and I see a couple of outflow boundaries: one along the I-90 corridor, the other draped just west of the Mississippi River through NE IA and into S MN.  Sure the EML is strong there and advecting in but there's moisture everywhere else which might be why most of MN is cloudy (are those ACCUS clouds entering WI around MSP right now?)

Still some cons so I can still see a bust on the 90s.  Next few hours are key.  Do clouds persist or does subsidence rule the day?  Most NWS offices are saying the latter.

I sense some bust potential for central WI's first 90 degree readings tomorrow.  The scorching 700 mbar temps of 21 °C advect in for only a few hours.  On the upshot this does happen during the heat of the day but all it would take is a well timed cloud deck counter this.  This seemed to happen today in the ARX CWA where their AFD says they fell well short of their high temperature forecast.  In the AM these clouds were predicted to mix out.  My personal thinking is that the sun beating on the very wet ground drives so much moisture to rise that condensation into clouds overwhelms mixing into the EML, supporting the thicker than expected cloud cover (in addition to surface evaporation keeping surface temps down directly).  But that's just speculation.

In any event, we have a statewide cold pool from MCS activity (to be reinforced with another MCS tonight), 0.5" - 4" of rain everywhere over the last 72 h going S and W hundreds of miles, and temps today already falling short both here (high was 80, forecast 86) and upstream thanks to clouds.  Wouldn't surprise me if we 89 this one.

38 minutes ago, madwx said:

Hit 90 for the first time this year in Madison

Interesting, thought you guys hit it already.

Just reached 77 a hundred miles to your north.  Will probably wind up being the high.  Still awaiting our first 90.  If we don't overperform tomorrow...it's gonna be a while.

As recently as yesterday our forecasted high was 89.  Actual high: 70.  I was telling people yesterday I doubted we'd even see 80s thanks to MCS activity but even this surprised me.  The cloud debris was thick all day and we had pretty stiff westerly breezes.  Looking forward to more.

I'll join the 90 fray.  We haven't hit it yet in central WI.  I though we would get close on June 27, but an MCS rolled through in the afternoon to stop that from happening.  Thought we might have a shot at 90 again today but temps flatlined in the mid-80s after 1 PM.  I mean they just hit an absolute ceiling, despite gradually warming 850 temps, and now at 5 PM they are starting to sag back down. The soil is very wet due to the two MCS's that rolled through recently, this might have something to do with it.

Tomorrow will have much warmer 850 temps but a morning MCS should provide ample cloud cover around mid-day.  After that, 500 heights should remain low enough that the first 90 will continue to elude throughout the first half of July.

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Interesting.  Looks like it was a wake low.  MLI and DVN gusted to 58mph, Dubuque gusted to 59mph, and across the river from us at Clinton they hit 60mph.

Saw the same pressure fluctuation here on my station.  Interestingly, the pressure quickly rose as the precip began around 9:30pm, and then started to quickly fall about a half hour later after the heaviest part of the convection went through.  The pressure continued to slowly fall as the light anvil rain fell, and then the pressure very quickly jumped.  During that quick pressure jump is when the high winds hit on the very back side of the rain.

I'm about 250 miles north of you and I observed the same phenomenon (well I wish, I actually soundly slept through the whole thing).  KSTE officially gusted to 46 mph, nearby COOP gusted to 53 mph around 2:40 AM.  Based upon my AFD this morning this was very widespread and amazingly did not involve convective processes.

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
640 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 426 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

A very rare phenomenon took place early this morning between 230
am and 430 am over central and northcentral Wisconsin when
evaporatively cooled air on the western edge of a band of rain
brought down strong winds that were a few thousand feet above the
ground. This sometimes happens on the back edge of an organized
mesoscale convective complex, but there were no thunderstorms at
all this morning. Wind gusts to over 50 mph brought down many
trees and power lines.

The models generally had my area as the most likely to receive snow zone as recently as two days ago.  I thought that was a lock since I'm out of state for this storm.  But in fact we have a Superior special here after all.  DLH painting some 6"+ amounts and saying in their enjoyable AFD that there's not as much working against this as one as one would think this time of year.  Hope some weenie up there is enjoying it.

Robbed of the 1"-2" I was expecting from the current storm.  I saw neither flake nor drop.  Now looking like the 1-2" of snow I was hoping for Sunday night won't happen either.  Looking forward there's unseasonably cold air in lower Canada for a couple of weeks yet and split flow delivering plenty of disturbances which are lined up all the way back to Asia right now.  Plenty of opportunities for cold air intrusions but the climo clock is ticking.  Timing will be everything but I won't write off an overnight 1/2" event even in early May.

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

ORD and RFD have a chance for record lows tomorrow. Record is 28, set in 1992 and 1976, respectively. 

I can see it happening.  Nice pool of temps around 30 just north and west.  If clouds clear out before dawn should be no problem.  I can say upstream here high clouds are drying right up.  My forecast low is 21.  Currently 36 with a dew point of 19 and I'll have fun watching it tank.

In spite of my expectations this has continued to trend south.  Now looking like a complete whiff for me.  That cold high to the north is beefy and means business.  Wish I could enjoy this without the overcast skies and mid-30s.