Amorphous Iodine

It gives me the feelz of the last snow storm January 3, 2022.  The end of a holiday weekend and only minimal concern with a worst case scenario.  I 95 was closed for 24 hours.

Two years ago today south of Fredericksburg.  650 power poles broke and had to be replaced.

 >>A strong band of frontogenetic forcing around 700 mb, along with plenty of slantwise instability (as evidenced by negative EPV and model cross sections). In addition there was even a little bit of elevated CAPE in the area where it was snowing during the morning. This led to intense banded snowfall that produced rates in excess of 1-2" per hour at times. While the best frontogenetic forcing generally stayed just to the NW of the Richmond Metro (and extended into Dorchester County, MD) through much of the morning, it gradually moved into the metro area during the late morning-early afternoon, allowing for some areas to pick up a quick few inches of snow. The bands of snow weakened as they moved into SE VA as the low pressure system quickly exited to the northeast. The weight of the heavy, wet snow downed several trees across the NW portion of our area, resulting in widespread power outages. There were several counties where 70-90% of residents were without power. At the peak of the event, nearly 450,000 residents were estimated to be without power in the state of Virginia. For many parts of our area, this was the largest snow event since 12/9/2018. In Louisa and Goochland Counties, the tree/infrastructure damage was on par with what occurred during Hurricane Isabel. The excessive amounts of heavy, wet snow were largely responsible for a closure of a portion of I-95 from Caroline County to north of the CWA border that lasted over 24 hours.

14 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Been a busy fall for me. Been running heavy equipment with a buddy doing grading, clearing, private road installs etc. If anyone is interested in before and afters, my buddy has a good Facebook biz page (Fisher Construction and Excavation in Amherst VA). I worked every job since Labor Day. I love this more than anything I've done. Offices may as well be on Mars cuz I'm NEVER doing that again. I'll go bankrupt first because money is never more important than sanity hahahaha

I have tons of fall pics but they are a jumbled mess. Lol. Put a couple collages together. Smith Mtn gets hit by sunrise b4 my property. Lights it up the entire mountain while I'm in total shade. Happens every day and steals my heart every time. 

I mill a lot of wood in my spare time and it's a blast. I'm getting a bandsaw mill in 2 weeks. 30" log diameter and 18' track but I'm always going run a chainsaw mill. Drag into the woods and start making lumber. Hard to describe the experience and what it means to me. Few can relate so I generally quietly mill and don't talk about it. Second collage is a white oak I dropped and milled 2 weeks ago. Just about ready for edging and planing. Using the oak for shed floor and doors. 

 

 

 

Through & through?

12 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

If you could change one thing, what would it be? 

On 6/26/2023 at 7:37 AM, Hank Scorpio said:

Anyone else dealing with a severe Japanese beetle outbreak? My yard was suddenly full of them over the weekend, with enough flying around to completely fill one of those beetle bags in 12ish hours. 

They're totally wrecking my poor birch tree

I’ve have had infestations in the past.  I’ve used BeetleJUS! and crab shell.  Either one or both of them helped or I just got lucky.  Crab shell supposedly increases one’s soil population of chitin-eating bacteria.  Beetle grubs can’t create an exoskeleton if all their chitin gets eaten.  Keep grass tall/thick.  Mama beetles like to lay their eggs where there isn’t much cover.  It helps if your neighbors like to scalp their lawns.

One benefit of this dry spring is that stone fruits do not get very diseased.

I can’t find any predictions about whether the Russia volcanic eruption will have any local weather impact.  Is it safe to assume any impact is de minimis?  
 

How about a contest/thread regarding when/if ash shows up at DCA?

DP is down to 76 F.  Nice to no longer have a DP in the high 70s.   Sweat refuses to evaporate on days like today.

14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Reminder if you say that something fails to trend positively everytime that means you are locked in to the fact that there has never ever been a storm that trended positively in the history of storms thus looking like a complete fool who acts like they are a 10 yr old spoiled brat. Time to move bro you don't like it here anymore go be happy somewhere. 

Do trends really exist with models?  If I get heads 5 times in a row when flipping an honest coin it definitely look/feel like a trend, but it’s a random streak.  When I think I’m seeing a storm trend  what am I really seeing?

The aipm is predicting FCPS will be closed 1/22 and 1/23.

Would someone please moderate the LR/MR thread?  Just start banishing them for 24 hours or something.  Heck, I volunteer if you show me how.

New power outages are still occurring in Spotsy (according to My REC outage map).  At least 4 in my area just last night.

My snow greed is dead.  I’m at my 51st hour sans power.  

I vote for “Washington Groundhogs” it might be the one of the few names trademarkable and inoffensive.

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

If you can't get people to cover their mouth and nose or wash their hands you're definitely not going to get them to NOT drive when it's snowing like crazy.

Excellent point!

Another possible factor: not a lot of tow trucks in the rural parts of Spotsylvania and Stafford.  The guy I use In Spotsy is a 1.5 man operation.  How many kids find that job appealing?

2 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

Saw that! I think more people need to be talking about the natural disaster thats basically unfolded on I 95 from DC to Fredericksburg. Some people have now been stranded 20 straight hours and not moved. Cars abandoned, disabled vehicles everywhere, people trying to conserve gas in 20 degree temperatures. 50 miles of the highway closed in both directions, with the northbound side making no progress. Road completely refroze and turned to a sheet of ice. Its commutageddon all over but maybe worse in some cases. 

2 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

Saw that! I think more people need to be talking about the natural disaster thats basically unfolded on I 95 from DC to Fredericksburg. Some people have now been stranded 20 straight hours and not moved. Cars abandoned, disabled vehicles everywhere, people trying to conserve gas in 20 degree temperatures. 50 miles of the highway closed in both directions, with the northbound side making no progress. Road completely refroze and turned to a sheet of ice. Its commutageddon all over but maybe worse in some cases. 

Where is FEMA?  Where’s the National Guard?

My bamboo (P. nigra) grove.  Normally it appears 5 metre tall.  Now it is more like 1 m.

“(Snow) greed is good.”  - Frosty Geccko.

The models seem to be saying lotsa snow in Spotsy.  Yippee!

>When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

This advice is questionable.   I heard of one theory that humans evolved to function best with head upright.  Literally watching one's step causes one's head to look down and thus makes makes balancing that more difficult.  Go running in the woods, looking straight ahead.  Then try running while looking at your feet.  (Ha just kidding, don't try it you'll run into a tree.)   But seriously, is there any science supporting the advice to watch one's step?  

What is a "weenie"?  And can the word be used as a verb or adjective?   TIA, Amateur Iodine

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

This.  Everybody knows they should post in American.  

Fahrenheit was German.   273.15 is the most English freezing point, methinks.

The NWS picture-format forecast.   I like it a lot, but I don't understand why they don't have a probability assigned to the full moon on Friday night.   Which model(s) predict that?

What?  Threads were merged?  We need more threads not fewer.  At least three more banter threads.  Banters need to know how great it is to banter in the banter and not in the other threads.  It is like one port-a-potty at a rock festival.  If you have lots of porta potties everyone uses them.  If you have only one, people will piss everywhere.    Thread greed is good.  Snow greed is good.  Ice greed is good.