TheRegionRat

18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think while the HRRR is typically too aggressive and too far west, the 3km NAMnest can fairly decent for lake effect. The WRF-ARW and NSSL-WRF are worth a look too when they come into range, via Pivotal, Tropical Tidbits, or HREF page. Finally, the 2.5 km HRDPS (Canadian) may be worth a look too when it comes into range.

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Thanks!  Very much appreciated.  I'm in East Chicago, just across the line, so I'm cautiously optimistic regarding the lake effect.  

Are there any reliable CAMS that can be used to forecast the lake effect on Friday? It seems like all of the American suite are poorly regarded. It's two days out, so this is probably far too early to get into those specifics.  

When did O'Hare dip below zero, Saturday night or Sunday morning?  I think the record is 100 consecutive hours below zero?  I think that's safe.  If it doesn't get above zero there today, is 60 hours reasonable?  

Drizzling here now.  I'm at work, in Hammond, around three miles south of home.  That aside, it looks like the party is over in these parts, until the snow ramps up again this afternoon/evening.  Easily four inches on the ground, perhaps a bit more.

1 minute ago, King James said:

Hyperlocal, not a met, and no recent stays at the holiday inn….but the rain / snow line on the radar has been pushed back down around Watseka. Hasn’t made progress since the first flake here 

 

 

My only resource for the changeover is the somewhat maligned HRRR. The latest run indicates several hours of snow before the rain moves in.  Do other CAMs indicate differently? The scenario currently unfolding looks to be more than a nuisance.  

Any chance the rain\snow line remains south of Route 30? Or the rain only lasts a couple of hours as opposed to four or more hours as modeled? 

Snowing heavily here. Visibility is noticeably reduced. 

48 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

Its like KLOT is taking into consideration the lake but the GFS and some others say screw the lake ?

I guess that's the follow up to my original question. Do the global models take into account the relatively warm lake waters?  

After reading the KLOT AFD, are the Euro and 18Z GFS snow maps over-cooked?  

Just now, KeenerWx said:

Not even from the pre-Christmas heartbreaker?

Nope.  The grass wasn't covered.  I'm hoping the warm lake effects are quickly overcome by cold and snow this time around.  

I don't recall my lawn being snow-covered last winter, and it's yet to happen this winter.  I'll start there.  Snow enough to cover the grass. 

Only snow I received yesterday was the early AM burst.  Nothing after that. 

Still raining here. 

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

RN+ downtown

Meanwhile, here in the Banana Belt on the southern tip of the lake, the is unabated.  

Slush on the sidewalks. A little snow on the grass.  Raining now.

Well, my expectations have been low, and at least I won't be disappointed.  Maybe I'll see the high end, and get enough snow to briefly cover the grass, before the rain washes it away.  Maye the backside snows cover some of the grass???

10 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Sums up winter for Chicago and most of the burbs

Rockford is probably close to normal snowfall for the season. 

Thanks. Not as unusual as I thought. 

Had ORD reached 60 degrees this month? If it hasn't and doesn't, how unusual would that be?

Snowing in Hammond, Indiana.  Not sticking yet.  

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ya’ll are overusing the “lock of the week” meme.


.

I've been waiting for your patented, "south, weaker, drier" statement that deflates the mood..lol...

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Maybe RC or Chicago Storm can share if the have it.

RC wrote the LOT update around 11AM CST.  Quoting here:

We`ll see if the
ECMWF suite rolling out around the top of the hour can help bring
some clarity.

27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What did you get?  I measured 3.7" this morning, which is the biggest snow of the season lol.  Can tell that the sun is doing work though even with temps in the mid 20s, so I may be seeing the grass again before this day is done.  

There was 2-3 inches on the ground. A few guys at work that live south of US 30 said there was touch more snow down there than in Hammond. 

Snowing at decent clip here. It looks like there's a decent amount of snow on the ground. 

Pleasantly surprised to see that LOT had 1-3 overnight and another 1-3 during the day.  Overnight was definitely a lot closer to the one inch total than the three inches.  We'll see how the day turns out.  If the grass is solidly covered, I'll be happy.