whoosh

Picking up GOM moisture perhaps

Reviewing SREF plumes and GEFS member plumes and spreads this morning, there is still quite a spread of 850 data, 2mT and QPF contributing to the derived uncertainties.

13 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not really gonna worry about individual op runs for a few days

Merits repeating, seemingly endlessly.
Thanks, Ricky.

Polar context:

which will surely bring down more frigid air

Doesn't look very typical to me (morning of 28th), at any level.

OK, we already know it's going to be cold. So here's another 4panel, just in case it helps ;-}

It appears that Gulf moisture and 850 temp convergence is not getting far enough North.

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

The reality always is folks want to trust the solutions they want and discount the solutions they don't.

and worse than that, they refer to individual op runs as as some kind of good/bad/whatever solely from the perspective of their desires. That's not science.
Some folks even use the totally uninformative qualifier "sick".
Oh well.

25 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday.

and area-wide from the 3k ...

Just now, mimillman said:

Something seems wrong on their site

No. The one "Expected" graphic is manually generated. All the others are not; only using multiple model outputs.

However, the 50% probability tops out at 7" unless I'm understanding badly.
https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter

1 minute ago, michaelmantis said:

If I stay downtown Saturday (to not drive Saturday AM after the first round) I'll get hit with the Lake Effect (as I'm right in the Downtown area). Hmmmm.

Kids and Dads love Metra!

Somebody recently asked about this ...

26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

the small changes in initial conditions in the ensembles show you the range of possible outcomes and give you a sense of confidence

In other words, it quantifies the magnitude of uncertainty for small differences of initial conditions/assumptions.

Noting the Trend ....

I look here ...

<http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html>
before I look at GFS snow panels.