Geez150

51 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

3k not so pretty

Is this additional on top of what we got Wednesday night into Thursday? Or is this total from Wednesday night into Saturday? Basically are we getting anymore snow Thursday into Saturday lol. Sorry in advance for my stupidity.

Just a rough measurement, got 4-5 in the north west corner of Livingston county, in Caledonia.

7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I don't like that viewpoint at all.  I wish I lived during the winters of the 60s and 70s.

I too wish we were to get a decade or two of those types of winters. The people who are old enough to remember those winters still talk about how winters should be. I have been saying this all winter as this is what our 4-5 bad year in a row and overall the last decade has been bad, this is our new normal... I feel like this damp barely cold enough for snow sometimes winters are what the southern mid West winters are like and now they are our winters too. Unfortunately I believe you have to bet warm until proven wrong. I am betting next winter is warm too...We truly need something big to happen in an equal to reaction of cold to break this warm trend and it would have to be in the way of cold like we have never seen. 

36 minutes ago, vortmax said:

It's February 3rd. I'm pretty sure winter isn't over...;)

For people who "use" winter it's over. At least locally in WNY. Winter doesn't really count or matter if we get 12" of snow and it's gone in a day or two. 

4 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

PaulyFromPlattsburgh should be happy with that snowfall map.  I just bought a nice sized Toro snowblower so that means winter is over.  I would love to give it a workout in 12+ inches.

What Toro did you get? I bought a new toro power max hd 928 this fall.

4 hours ago, Leelee said:

No, a pattern change to below average temps will happen by late February, just in time for sun angle season. And then we'll get a snowstorm on Easter, to bookend unseasonable events with Veteran's Day.

Unfortunately I believe that you will be correct. A pattern change that will be a month late and will do nobody any good, as we won't be able to build a snow pack. It will keep the ground good and muddy and hearting bills up. Glad I went to the County Maine to get my snowmobiling fix it. It was heaven being there, no shortage of cold and snow anywhere. First morning we woke up in Fort Kent, ME it was -16 F out and a high of 5 or so for the day...That was a good day.

Well boys and girls since this winter has been nothing sort of a bust for snowmobiling in NY, in a few short hours we are heading all the way up...To Fort Kent, ME to chase the snow. When I find it I will try my best to bring the cold and snow back with us!

So basically this cold we are getting won't last and we might as well stick a fork in this "winter"?

5 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

The Pacific has basically ruined our Winter and theres a pretty simple explanation if ya can follow me.  OHweather did a good job of explaining the MJO, but he didn't mention the consistent forcing thats been present for the past 4-6wks displaced just East of the DL right around 140-160W and this, in turn, has allowed the mean trough to remain off shore across the N.ATL for the same amt of time, and its not changing. If the forcing I'm talking about had been displaced the other way, then we'd be sitting pretty but thats the weather and perhaps the wicked drought conditions across Australia have had an effect across the Trop Pac, who knows!  Hawaii has had a trough over them for the past 6 weeks and usually its to their East, but not this yr.  Not saying it can't or won't snow, I'm just saying those who were hoping on a pattern change, including JB, have to wait a couple to a few weeks longer.  I never really see the MJO getting to phase 8- 1 or 2 but it does get into 7 briefly so unless the Trop Pac changes, and does so quickly, then I don't think Winter makes an appearance the whole season and when it did in Nov, it was Fall and go look where the forcing was in Nov, lol!

Nice to see snow totals for Thursday but no hint of anything for sat/sun?

That's just nuts to be that warm for that long.

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Same here, except im 36, celebrating 10 years in St Lucia in a week. Our puppies are our kids, currently have a lab mix and a St Bernard beagle mix. Share the same feelings on people vs dogs as @wolfie09. I can watch a war movie but not marley and me.

Glad to see other couples out their the same, all of our groups of friends have slowly disappeared into their child's lives lol.

I'm 36 and my wife is 35. My wife and I have been married 6 years and have no kids. My wife and I both enjoy coming home from work and doing as we please or do nothing at all. We have not officially said no to kids but at our age I feel that time has come and gone. We do have a dog and a cat. And like others have mentioned they are like our children and we care for them as such. And I to have watched my circle of friends get sucked into the hole that is their children's lives lol. My one friend had three kids and all three do different activities, I would lose my mind having to run all three kids here, there and everywhere. When we get together for a few beers it's planned a month or more out like a dentist appointment. Oh wells, life is what it is.

Hopefully we get a February like 2006 but I'm not betting on anything...

Yes that's right, but when is the million dollar question? Starting to think like others have said by the time the mjo gets to a favorable phase and other pieces fall into place the time will have ran out and just end up with a cold wet spring.

I am 100% a Bills fan and a Josh Allen  fan. And every comment that has been made about them on here I can agree with. My take on Allen is he will get better as time goes on and he settles down more and of course with more help. We need to keep the coaching staff both offense and defense as well as, as many defensive players on the roster as we can for next year. As for the loss I feel everyone shoulders some blame. Allen made too many costly plays, the coaching staff called to conservative of a mid game with the lead. And the defense gave up to many big plays with soft coverage and or poor tackling. Football is a team sport and they truly lost as a team....now back to your local weather forecast lol.

That game was just like our winter. Started out great and then took a big dump. Allen is my guy but come on man...

2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

You can look at the total snow... the average temperature... but what about combining them and looking at how we trend for days with snow on the ground. I think this is a better gauge on how well we remember a certain winter or period of winters. Growing up in the 90s it seemed like we had awesome winters and I can remember more years than not that we would have snow on the ground for long periods. Building snow forts and sled hills off the garage roof that stayed for weeks not a weekend. Anyways found these on the BUF climate page and I think they actually back up this idea...



Average Days with 1” over this period was 71.2 days. Big thing that stands out here in the consistency of 20 straight seasons from 1990-2010 where every season had 50+ days. Now notice the last 8 seasons... 4 of those 8 we failed to see 50 days.



Average days with 6” over this period was 24.6 days. Again can see the reduced frequency over the past 10 seasons compared to the 90s and 2000s.



Now the 12” chart is a real eye popper. Average days for this period was 8.6 days. Which is heavily skewed by the monster winters in the 70s. From 1993-2004 we had 5 out of 11 seasons with 10 or more days having 12” on the ground. Over the next 15 seasons following this we would only see 1 more season with over 10 days of 12” on the ground.


Can cut the numbers any way you want but I think it does show we are having more trouble keeping a snowpack on the ground in the past few years regardless of where we shake out for actual snowfall for the season.


.

 

Those charts are awesome to see, thank you for the posts! To me these charts are the proof in the pudding. To me yearly snow totals or average temps mean nothing without staying power. Thanks again for this info.

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Hey Matt.  Happy New Year.  Yeah I was thinking the same thing wrt to the "new pattern" as this seems to be a repeat of last years cutterfest.  Don S suggested that this may be related to warmer SST's and a new base state as a result.  MJO seems to be favoring warmer 5/6 as well and he sees the link between the 2.  Sure hoping its just a seasonal blip, but makes one wonder.  

Nut

Nut I'm assuming by your profile pic you are a snowmobiler just like I am. I have followed winter weather closely since I got back into snowmobiling back in 2006 as I hate to admit I have a small fortune wrapped up in this weather based hobby. And I am afraid to admit that this is the new normal and a new pattern has taken shape. Now I have no weather specific science to back this up. Just my own observations and the lack of miles on my sleds and the addition of miles on my truck chasing the snow. I know a lot of weather outlets gave their winter outlooks which painted a good picture for us snow lovers. I feel they need to ditch the past analogs they are using as they must be digging too far back and the winters of old are really skewing the information. Until proven else wise it seems like using just the last say 5-10 years of data would be more useful for long range weather forecasts. I'm probably way off base, but I don't have snow and I'm bored, and this is what happens when I get bored. I take to the chat forums, lol.

20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Best case scenario for the next event lol

Honestly I don't even want this at this point. The ground is so wet. Would be nice to just go cold a few days with sun and dry with a little wind to help soak some of this mess up. I know we are looking at a small cooler spell coming around the 6th-8th. Anyone think that might have some staying power or are we going to right back to 40s and bunch of blah...

Long time lurker here in warm and snowless Caledonia. Though I offer no weather insight or knowledge I am a snowmobiler and therefore I am a die hard winter lover. Over the last year or two I have come to this page for the inside scoop on long range forecasts and the likelihood of whether or not a winter storm might impact the WNY area. And though I am deeply disappointed by the way this winter seems to be shaping up just like last year with what seems the cold pattern flip on an ever moving horizon, I do enjoy coming on here and reading what you all have to say for winter weather, for better or for worse.

Geez.