Looking to the skies

This Nov/Dec has not been as the last few years before. Here in S E Ga we have not had many highs above 70 , and most of Dec has been in the 50/60 for highs. 
We have gotten low as 25 here and it was 29 here this morning. 
It has been cooler here some days than in NW Ga. 
 

4 hours ago, George001 said:

The people calling for a weak El Niño are incorrect. We have a well coupled moderate strength El Niño right now, so it makes so sense to forecast a weak event. NOAA doesn’t only use one index, they use several different indexes and all of them reflect El Niño conditions. The most recent tri monthly value is 1.3, which is far from a weak event. The most recent report mentions that the key atmospheric indicators they look at (ONI, SOI index, subsurface etc) all reflect a well coupled El Niño, which is expected considering we are currently in a moderate El Niño. This is different than the 2018-2019 event that struggled to couple. The most recent IRI report is in agreement with NOAA, it explicitly states that the key oceanic and atmospheric conditions are consistent with a moderate El Niño. The only way this ends up being a weak event would be if it already peaked and begins rapidly weakening the next couple of months, and there is nothing to support that happening. Both climatology and guidance argue for further strengthening of the El Niño over the next couple of months.

Again

You just contradicted what many other Mets have very recently said. They are saying there is plenty to support the data they are using. MEI of .06 and the indicators are just as strong and are similar to 2009-10, 1983, 1987, 2014 and others 

Just puzzling, with all the evidence and then NOAA come out and say warm and dry basically except for far s east. 
 

Their reasoning does not make sense. I have lived here all my life. The only thing i can figure is the climate agenda and the belief that winter is changing. I know better than that. Seasons remain. 

Ok Guys

I am just seeking some understanding on something. How are NOAA calling for a record El Nino and others calling for a weak with the same data to work with? 
is it true we are at .06 now? That is a very weak, nothing like the 2.5 of 2015. 
 

I am just trying to understand. I would hate to believe an individual would trade their knowledge ( on either side of a cause ) for an agenda.  It is hard for me to grasp such a wide prognostication on the same data. 

I think there will be a path through S Ga akin to like Ivan did in S Al in 2004. We were in BayMinette then and from there through Atmore, Monroeville and points N he ripped it up good. 

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Southeast rains.  Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this.  Usually sinking air in advance.  Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing.  Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia.

Wind was ahead and with them. I am in Hazlehurst, Ga. It has been quiet up to the showers in the last 2-3 hours. I have been through 6/7 hurricanes. 

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

That Low is not coming that far S

Eye trying

Euro ensembles showing a loop, almost every one turns back south. 

29 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

Completed the winterizing at the Cabin yesterday. I have guests arriving there tomorrow and it is booked throughout the rest of the Holidays. 

I'm keeping a keen eye on Sunday night/Monday as a trailing shortwave energizes a NW Gulf low that heads our way.

I will be at Warrensville at a Cabin from 23-25 leaving Monday morn by check out time. 
It will be interesting to see what I find accumulation wise.  Everyone is saying 1-3 on the Apps. Gonna be a tough drive from Hazlehurst Ga Friday before we arrive that late afternoon. 

I hate the GFS. May Matilda put it to Eternal rest

We live in Hazlehurst Georgia now. We desperately need the rain Ian could bring. My pond is about 10’ below the level it was last year. It looks bad. 
I do not need 50-70mph winds with the pines on my property. So I need 6-8” of rain , that would help tremendously, but I don’t need trees on my trailer or sheds

Charleston SC nws believes only beach areas will see any tropical force winds / gusts and have chosen to not issue any tropical storm watches for any inland counties they cover.

How can you designate a storm a tropical storm and not believe it even has winds of 39mph with it?  I understand it will be asymmetrical but surely local (Charleston) Mets follow the lead of the NHC?

10 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I was playing with this tool and am surprised at how far away from Gulfport some storms were that created real memories. TS Debbie was over 100 miles from Gulfport and we had a significant surge and flooding along with TS winds and 16 inches of rain. We had a band from Hurricane Hermine that took down an oak tree in our yard and was over 150 miles away. Tropical Storm Eta was almost 50 miles away and gave us the highest surge since I have been back in Florida (2003).

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.83/27.78/-82.73&search=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

 

 

Prospero

I am a graduate of Poplarville, and PRCC.  I used to come down to Waveland on Sunday afternoon after church with a family that went to the church I attended at Picayune.  Jumped off their pier and went swimming and such.  I loved Gulfport. 

I am still looking to the skies.  Lost my Voice but not my humor!!

If Elsa hangs in there SHE will defy the computer model odds.  Almost every model at some point have said Let Her Go. 

I have had a model send her directly over me at least 3-4 times already at different runs

19/8/7

34 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

What’s your reasoning for this?

Everything is working against the Arctic air continuing in strength and intensity. Days are getting longer and sun angle is changing. The longer it holds back , less chance it will cross the country 

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS is warm for both systems but still brings the cold and a significant storm midweek. We’ll see if it joins the bandwagon with the Thursday/Friday system or stays on its island 

I just don’t believe the cold will make it s east of Atlanta. I also do not believe N Ga will see any of the Arctic cold. It will get cold, it is February.  But I think the cold will seep Into central mid part of Nation southward and be pushed N East.  We in SEast Ga and the state of Florida will remain normal or above normal. Days are already getting longer. The season is heading to spring here in the south

I am in Metter Ga. The last big storm here I know of was Feb 11, 1973. Any hope to see any winter precip?

Those same signals were here on the Gulf coast  less than 36 hours ago. That is how far the cold has been shoved back and warmth pushed up per models thinking. 
 
How many times will this continue? Models sgnal an Arctic outbreak then poof it is magically gone or shoved so far back north it should be counted as their Normal winters

NWS in Atlanta aint impressed with  no Models or ensembles.....  They just issued a statement  1, 1.5 inches in the NE Mountains..... Nada anywhere else basically

What does this all mean for N Al, NWGa?

I am just an observer, no met.  But the appearance  to me  is the models have backed off the cold a good bit.  It does not seem to be as strong or far reaching , hence the absence of snow being projected outside the mountains. It looks like the Pacific stream has grabbed control and we have the west to east movement of the La Nina again dominating. The two or three chances between here and the 1st seem to have left the building for anything south and east of the Appl.  Somebody is going to see 3-5 inches of rain in N Georgia for sure.

King Euro against American GFS.  Sort of like the old country song Cut across Shorty, we want the GFS to win this one!!  Faster and more cold on backside.