Approximately 6" so far by the Nashville Zoo. My 3 and 4 year old are pumped, to say the least. I'm right there with them. I'll get coffee'd up and grab a real measurement soon.

Another vote for Rufus.

2 minutes ago, Reb said:

Precip breaking out over OK,TX, LA. Here we go…

Yeah, about time to put down the models and start looking out the window. Looks pretty sunny out of my window, but cold

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

As for cold, all operationals/deterministic runs have portions of the forum area below zero for temps and real feel temps -10 to -30 below zero.  Just a brutal air mass next week.  I don't think it will be as bad as Dec '22 as the wind doesn't look as bad, but some extreme temps continue to be on modeling.  The CMC is maybe the most impressive as it does it without snow cover.  If any portion of the are gets snow cover, some all-time lows could be flirted with....

I think it has potential to be pretty bad. If we get the snow as currently shown and the lows are as extreme as currently shown, it will kill people. Imagine impassable roads and a TVA plant or two going down. We saw it briefly in 2022, but this could last a little longer. This is everyone's reminder to check your generators now. If the models come to fruition, we need to be prepared and help our neighbors. 

Edtited to add: I don't want to come across as alarmist. I'm not. We just need to be ready for it. Luckily, we still have a few days to gather more data.

28 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

That is quite possibly the boldest, and probably dumbest thing a major news station could put out for something a week away..............  IMO.  lol

That was my thinking, too. Like, it's alright for us on weather message board to throw stuff out, but a news station in a large market is a different story. We get off on this kind of stuff, but we also know it may go poof tomorrow.

That said, we're getting snow next week, dangit

24 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

It’s really depressing to see virtually the whole state modeled for a major winter storm except the valley where it’s basically showing a heavy frost.  This is more for the banter thread, but I’m hoping airing our grievances will change our luck like it did for Nashville.  I remember those posters several years ago moaning all the time about the snow hole there.  Now, their weather is resembling Snowshoe, WV...lol!  The snow curse needs to be lifted for the Valley!

We sacrificed a lot of bachelorettes to the snow gods. Like a lot.

I'm at a little over 3" by the Nashville zoo. 

22 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I'll just go ahead and ask. When you (or anyone) says, 'NAMing', are you referencing model bias with respective to mid-layer thermals/overdone trough amplification? Just want to make sure I follow.

NAM likes to show us getting buried in snow in the 60-84 hour range. Beautiful clown maps that are good for daydreams of winter wonderlands, but they rarely materialize.

If that TWC outlook is as good as their February outlook, then assume the opposite that's shown.

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Several of the 18z GEFS members are coming in a wee bit (and I don't mean that sarcastically) east of the OP:

 

I like every one of those individuals. Not often that happens.

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Already a major accident on 24 in Nashville. Over 20 vehicles involved and the interstate is closed


.

That stretch of 24 is a nightmare on a good day. People go way too fast through there.

This aren't the best pictures, but all that I could find. This is Nashville from February 16, 2015. All of this is sleet/ice. It was a tad slippy.

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Th extended part of the UKMET brings yet another storm with ice over middle TN, after 144:

It seems like a repeat of 2015 with back to back ice/sleet events for the midstate.

Y'all talking about a 12" event are getting greedy I'll settle for a 2" event. I haven't had anything in a few years.

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The one thing that takes a bit to get used to in looking at those, is that the dashed black lines go up at and angle, so that the temp in at 650 is maybe -5c:

Ah, makes total sense. Thanks. Now I see what you're talking about in the second one where it barely nudges above freezing. (BTW, they sure do cram a lot of information on those Skew-T''s)

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

Last one is the easiest. Starts as snow and never gets above freezing.

Thank you for taking the time on those. Very informative.

Can you help a newbie out with a question? I'm slowly learning how to read these things. You said the last one is snow all the way down. The dewpoint and temperature meet at about 650 and it's maybe around 2-3 degrees C at that point and then it falls . How do you interpolate that it it snow shown? Is the snow actually being produced further down at like 800 or so?

12 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

People across West and Middle TN are reporting snow squalls at 40-45 degrees.

I saw it with my own eyes out in Brentwood earlier.

Quote

January 22-23, 2016 Snowstorm

That was such a great storm for me. Walked out to go to work at 6:00, saw a light dusting and figured I'd wait just a bit to see how it went. Glad I waited because it got deep very quickly and rush hour got bad for a lot of people. We ended up with 9" and it was one of the biggest snows I've seen in my 36 year life here in Nashville.

Anyone out towards the Clarksville/Dickson part of the state seeing any flakes making it down through the dry air? 

Just now, PowellVolz said:

I believe the NAM has backed west also maybe 50 miles or so.


.

Keep backin'er up! 

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

 a much bigger precip shield on the backside than the NAM.

I think that's our only hope here in Middle TN.

15 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

We're pretending not to freak out at the slight possibility of a white Christmas.

I'll feel better with more model agreement a few days from now. It always stinks having to rely on cold catching up to moisture. It lets us down more times than it works out, but a man can dream. I'm trying not to let my emotions get in the way of the logical part of my brain that says it's not likely to happen, but...

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And of course the rain pipeline just won't abate either. Sunshine might at least let us get out in our backyards a bit. Only speaking for myself, it would cheer me up too. 

This cloudy/rainy pattern needs to go. It's a stressful period right now, and a little sunshine to get outside in the yard could do me a lot of good. 

43 minutes ago, JayCee said:

Per WBIR yesterday, this supercell travelled over 300 miles and lasted over 6 hours.  All this damage and destruction caused by one single storm that nearly traversed the whole state west to east.  Further, it's amazing that this one storm was so long-lived in an environment that wasn't supercharged similar to events like 4/27/11.  It has changed my attitude toward "marginal" events.  It only takes one storm.   

It is a little bit of a wake up call. I'll admit I usually see lower-end threat events as "Oh, maybe a quick spin-up or two." I don't ever think of them as producing long-track supercell tornadoes. I guess that's just been recency bias. Now the pendulum has swung the other way on the bias.

55 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

KBNA has a snow dome

This is an actual picture I snapped while flying in to Nashville the other day.