RT1980

Did it snow in Raleigh this year?  Asking for a friend!

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Willow Spring about 5 miles north of Angier.

Yes Sir, I can feel your pain. As a kid I remember watching college basketball with the threat of snow only to wake up the next morning to rain!

9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Love those snow maps being posted but I don't like that Wake gradient!  I'm in the southern tip!  

Fun to have stuff to track, though.

Angier?  I grew up close in Coats.

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east:

 

The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well.


I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track.

Seems that the Euro has been going towards the gfs recently.  Nothing but time will tell!

21 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Still time to prove that right, be careful. 

I don’t live in Raleigh, I’m closer to the SC line east of Charlotte.  Low expectations here but I also like to play it as it comes instead of canceling a season at the beginning of January. It may or may not snow at all but like I said I’ll take it off of the current data shown instead of giving up off the long range!

4 minutes ago, dogwoods said:

The Wake gradient is strong.  Would be funny… if I didn’t live here.  

Won’t snow at all this year in Raleigh from what we’ve been told!

Biggest thing I’ve noticed is everyone being so stuck on a current pattern and calling a season great or dead.  Also people living and dying by 1 model run!  I’m not an expert by any means but the next few weeks show a glimmer of hope and whether we cash in or not remains to be seen but it’s the best I’ve seen in years!

5 hours ago, eyewall said:

We are not getting shite from this one. This is a Mid-Atlantic/Northeast event. The exception may be a small amount in the mountains.

Did we expect anything different?  Never showed much of anything?  Are you still saying Raleigh is blanking for the season?

But cancel winter!  No chance of snow in Charlotte or Raleigh.  The red tag said so, so it must be true!

I’m locking that run in ! I’m in Union County! Lol

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

You know we're in the suck zone when its this quiet in late December. Most years we would be on page 10 at least yet here we are on page 3. 

Yep, 99% of our memorable snows come in December!   Next thing you know people will be angry if it’s not in the upper 90’s in May!

Just looking back at the long range (fantasy land) storms on the gfs.  It loves Mon-going in to Tue this season!    Just an observation!   

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Well the issue is feedback on the MJO, the PNA is at record negatives this year so that means that virtually for us the SER is in control until the PNA settles down. The NAO and AO will be not help unless the SER gives in which currently doesn't look that way. We may have a slight window but we are shattering recod highs and record low highs left and right. This December has been way above normal for the SE. I mean we are breaking record by like 5 or 6 degrees.  That is extremely impressive and very telling. 

Yeah,  this current winter is seeming to shape up like last wit BA Nov and AA Dec.   The SER has been strong for what seems like a decade. I’m not saying it’s gonna flip and we’ll get record snows, I’m just saying it’s still too early to write it off as some have.

1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter.  About 2/3rds at best.

It’s always been that way as far as I can remember.  Usually late January into February for our better chances.  Everything has been so weird the past few years, who know.

14 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

It's been weeks of model runs really.

They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed.  I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? 

Everyone so down off of a model run?

Why are the op runs so left and right? Not concerned with the snow or no snow but 6z to 12z run temps are day and night.  Below freezing then in the 60’s+.  What samples change that drastically in 6 hours?

It will “probably” come back again, then disappear again!  Rinse and repeat until April!

Another snowless winter in NC outside of the mountains incoming.  La NIna projected.  We can hang hopes on the 10-15 day model runs as always.  I hope it’s different but I won’t hang a hat on it!

On 9/17/2021 at 7:50 AM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Lows in the 40s coming in about a week!

You almost had it!  Got to be a little quicker with that one!   One day in the 70’s and mid 50’s for lows.   I hope it comes back though.

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"Doing the dumb" lol Gonna use that!

So, what’s it going to do?

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

It's not even peak season yet. It's not like August first hits and then it's a cane fest. There's a reason why many consider 8/20 to be the start of peak season. In the last decade there have only been 3 storms before 8/20 to get stronger than Cat 1, and none of those were majors. I've got a feeling a lot of your posts on here claiming this season is going to be inactive are going to age very very poorly...

Why is there only 289 hour models posted?  I would love a short term forecast from him on what will happen!      Do the long term models support?

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Central West coast of Florida could use a good solid rain event and even some moderate TS winds to blow out a few cobwebs and stir up the ocean a bit to help get rid of the red tide.

Time to watch and pay attention for us. What we don't need is a Hurricane on any level...

12z were the last I had time to view and some were 30+ hours up the coast.  I know to take with a grain of salt almost a week out but that would be a lot of rain accumulation.  I hope we can get an inch or so here in NC

A long ways out and will have to look at the models going forward but what was concerning to me was how long the models had this going up the west coast of Fl.   That would be a ton of rain for them.   I know it’s subject to change but wow.

Regardless of the final outcome, this system wants to grow.  Outflow is looking better based off of latest ir. I think we  should see slow intensification until the islands,  I would guess more than TS status but I’m not a met and just guessing