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luckyamaha

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Posts posted by luckyamaha

    December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    No one thinks it's going to happen. Just having fun. Nothing in "real" range to discuss. 

    We can still discuss how much potential Rain we could get in "real" range.

    Lets go over or under 1.75" in the gauges. If we are going to have the wettest year might as well make it unreachable for next several years.

     

    December 9/10 Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    06z GFS: heavy snow in Grere SC,  low pressure off Jacksonville. If this verifies, This is the greatest model ever....
    Then it does secondary development. All models are hinting....
    Last 10 GFS model trends for 7pm Sunday goes from some light snow in the area to virtually none in all of Va for last two runs. Like you said is it going to verify and maybe will need to keep the GFS around for this winter season. Euro has been steady I think as well with the southern trend. Curious to know after this what the grades are between the two on performance 01d88c560c1ca0d32569a141200fdd58.gif

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    • Thanks 1

    December 9/10 Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Confluence is retreating / a tad weaker so far in the 12z suite on the GFS NAM and ICON. (12 and 0z are the only that actually count at this point as they receive much more data than off hour runs) Solid start to the suite. Long way to go. 
     
    Keep in mind, there will be a ton of players on the field for this storm and majority of them are still offshore, including the main system in question. If this trend continues at 0z, we are still in the game. Time is, however, getting short. 
    Wish casting is strong

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    December 9/10 Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Im starting Happy Hour early tonight. Got a fresh 12 pack of Danzig from Devils Backbone maybe we will gain the 50-75-100 miles needed by the weekend. Definitely we are loosing ground but as PSU said this should not happen this early for our usual climo. MORE will come keep the faith for the next 3 months. Will hit +150% of average totals.

    • Like 1

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    That’s a bold call on his part 4 days out and considering the size of their viewing area.  One tick and EZF gets WWA criteria snow.  2 ticks and close to DC metro gets something.  Not usually one for optimism but I don’t think this is dead and buried as far as getting some snow for some.  
    I Agree still plenty of time and tomorrow will tell another story. I'm in NW Stafford so got at least a chance of 15%.

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    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just don’t know how anyone can assess that “it’s over” based on one 6 hour run that shows Zero when the previous showed 6” and the next Zero, then 6 again.
    Exactly. It's still ways to go until final day. But ch4 Doug Kammerer said it's south and not to expect anything

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    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Wonderdog said:

    FV3 will make people happy. 

    Making people happy since 2018!!! But in all seriousness this new improved model has been holding steady and improving ever so slightly and keeping with the ensembles as well. Do like the 500 look as well. Lets move on to 12z

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