luckyamaha

Overnight EPS took a step back as well. Nothing earth shattering as the changes seen were small which reflects the fact that the outcome can flip on a dime. So this storm is still very much in play for those to the north. 

59 minutes ago, Ji said:

very dissapointing GFS run....its like we lost all that we made up at 18z

Why again care about the GFS???

Would you go higher than 2/10 6 days out?  6 hours ago we were on the train to Supressionville

apologies if this has already been posted earlier in the thread (I couldn't find any references), but for those who follow Wes Junker in the Capital Weather Gang section of the Washington Post, here is his take on the potential weekend storm, written earlier this afternoon:
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/03/washington-region-may-sit-edge-winter-storm-this-weekend/?utm_term=.1fd9a5cdf404

1 minute ago, Scud said:

We all do....

I work nights so i miss the mid day runs but get the happy hour and late night ones. FV3, FV3, FV3...

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Exactly, and honestly I’d personally just look at the FV3, this old GFS will be obsolete soon. 

FV3 much more sure of its self then the old GFS. Dont get me wrong at 84 to 72 hrs before any storm its ok as a model but not this far out.

Ensemble was good at 0z. and H5 did improve a bit. 

will see FV3 next if it holds this run

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

6z trended better, especially at H5 level with that NE screw job s/w moving out faster.  So that's good I guess

There was nothing good about that run in my opinion. same ol garbage from the GFS, has no clue where to go and what to do.

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Having everything (except for the gfs op) drastically NW of the Euro 12z run was a bit of a red flag. C NC to C VA the big winners this run.  NC/SC boarder winners at 12z.

Need to forget the GFS Op so far out. Its terrible outside of 84-90 hrs. Move on to the new FV3 my man

2 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

Why anybody gives much value to the GFS (at least the old version) is beyond me.  It is not very good with east coast winter storms beyond 4 days. Frequently overdoes the northern stream strength/progressiveness which usually screws up the end result.  Of course, the outcome of next weekend is still up in the air, but is not likely to be the GFS depicted result.  

Its only good for phone apps. I think the FV3 looks to be a clear winner and has been steady the last few runs to my untrained eye starting back on 11/30

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z gefs is pretty bad for our area. Strong support for southern slider. 

It also pops a secondary low after the first is gone in the same spot 18hrs later. How believable  is that in comparison to last nights 0z run on GEFS? 

Seems like we need to hold off for another 36hrs or more

Our main Event is this coming Wed/Thrs thats for sure, Remember the 5thofDecember not November.

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles have been favoring a squashed track as well. The idea is gaining support

That they have especially when they come with the low right off the FL coast straight into the Atlantic with no SER/WAR. Gate is wide open for it to run and become fish storm

Just now, Cobalt said:

Euro 12z run was even worse. Of course that was nearly 12 hours ago but still

Follow Ensembles not OPs this far out

Why are we still looking at this crap GFS??? this thing has been bad for ages especially this far out. Next

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not sure its been mentioned but the gefs has a couple members that slow timing down so considerably that the low amplifies southwest of us and tracks the low almost on top of us. Just another possibility. 

Some due but that "L" coming off Jacksonville on the 500mb is not what we want since there is no ridge in the Atlantic to block it and turn it up along the coast. I could be wrong in what im seeing.

I was up all night since I work nights so it looked good with the Euro then 6z sucked on GFS. Now time for sleep so keep the ball rolling but not suppressed for next run

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk

Time to look at the FV3 and see how its not going into suppression on this 6z run. Lets get this together plenty of time for correction 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

6z looks really suppressed so far at 162. Like what storm suppressed.  

Looks close to 18z run on 11/30 for sure suppressed.

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Cwg snow potential. 1/10

Now its 1.5/10. I know comment should be in Banter section. Just could not help it

4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’m just gonna say that if E2 verified, I would never wish for snow again and would never complain again!!

E12 would make everyone happy. Lock it in

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Cwg snow index potential is 1 out of 10. Maybe the most useless index ever

Not sure who runs that but they are almost as good as your weather apps. maybe they need to start at -3/10 confidence on this one

No one and l mean no one look at FV3 snow map. Low crawling to OBX for 24 hrs

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk

Looking at these snow total maps from GFS and  EPS with a pint of Dark Hallow in front of me it almost seems like Im seeing double. Great hit area wide now if we can only hold this for the next 7+ days and get a crush job. Lets see what the new FV3 has to say

Probably wouldn't bother looking at the 06Z GFS. No Tuesday/Wednesday storm and it drives the Dec 8-10 storm into the lakes.

By the look of your avatar you will fit right in. I have only been here for about a week or so. As you can tell by my avatar, I'm a "surface guy."  We also have several "500mb guys." Hello to you too my freind.
Fine print: guy is a gender neutral term......