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luckyamaha

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    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    Those indexes often miss the picture. They are like poor man cheat sheets but cannot replace reading the actual longwave pattern. 

    I don’t know what the indexes say for 3-5 days from now but this looks mighty good to me. 

    8CDE7EF6-02C8-4ADD-A524-92D8199348B7.thumb.png.ceceb97401c4fe8d1da0dc5277bafb28.png

    21CF140B-652B-42D3-9AC5-6B89747E8CEF.thumb.png.2bc1c69615c1ee4a43c7c64a4377e053.png

    Monster epo ridge.  50/50 vortex.  West based NAO blocking.  Severely fractured and displaced TPV. Trough east of Hawaii to help pump some ridging in the southwest.  Way more hostile looks than that have led to snow in the past.  Maybe it’s not the most ideal textbook perfect hecs look ever but it’s decent.  

    If you are referring to the indexes in 10 days as the threat happens then that is irrelevant.  Big storms often happen once the blocking that set them up breaks down.  Without that look day 3-5 we wouldn’t get the whole chain of events that leads to the day 10 threat.  But that look is only 3 dats away now and across all guidance.  

    Could the gfs be right and storm one cuts then everything behind it gets suppressed, sure.  Could it amp up too much and rain yea.  Or maybe we get snow.  It’s not a super high probability but no day 10 threat is but if you can’t see the reasons the next 13 days or so might yield snow in the mid Atlantic from that day 3-5 look then you don’t know how to actually analyze a pattern and are misusing indexes.  Or you are trolling.  

     

     

     

    That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March.

    • Like 2

    The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Why would we "roll" with that?  If that is what is going to happen so be it, and we can't control it, but it sucks so why would we be like...yea lets roll with it?  
    Because this entire season has been Pacific Jet driven and it will most likely continue which will give way to more cutters and rain. All the cold is in the west and everything else points to early spring by March 1st

    Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

    February Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    At least one groundhog will be right with early spring arrival,Punxsutawney Phil is correct and he has not looked at any model runs all winter. We are cooked I'm jumping ship

     

    Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

     

     

     

     

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