Toekneeweather

Gfs is definitely more amplified than its previous runs.

top image: latest run 0z run

bottom image: early evening 18z run

0z run

18z run

Images courtesy

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Big hit incoming! In my opinion.

Edit:

0z run

18z run

Big hit happening next Sunday 7am! 

It has the look of January 23rd 2016 nam caught that perfect cause every model was suppressing it at the end everyone followed nam pulling up the coast and dumping 26 and change of snow in Central Park breaking the all time high for a 24 hrs snowstorm.

Edit: GFS finishes a bit suppressed but it does snow decent here anyway. Philly is the bullseye. Last run was mostly rain but this could be a trend towards a more  suppressed solution like the euro and cmc.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

No - ignore the GFS - its Para run is going south and east of us - so does the GEM - waiting for the Euro o finish running - apparently early next year the GFS Para is taking over for the old GFS for obvious reasons...…..

The GFS is the worst model in my opinion. It had rain the whole entire time for November 15th snowstorm. Gfs para was much better and I think that’s going to be the official gfs starting January.

3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Well it says the snow has to melt when it hits the ground, not that it actually has to "wet" the ground.  I could be wrong too, just how I'm seeing it.

You’re right I was wrong, it just needs to melt on the ground. So that means even a few flurries are a trace as long as they do reach the ground.

13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

But doesn't this contradict your point?  If there are flurries flying around and they melt  as they hit the ground, a trace should be recorded according to this criteria.

They have to wet the ground don’t you see it on the text that national weather service states. Today we had a trace of frozen stuff but longbeachsurf was talking about a few snow flurries that is not a trace. Flakes flying around and never really wetting the ground is not a trace. Maybe I’m wrong but I can picture a trace basically some white rain and boom it’s a trace

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes even just flakes in the air is a trace of snow.

I didn't know why some misunderstood that, it's obviously not rain, whether anything sticks to the ground or not, it's still snow.

No it isn’t you can’t record a trace of snow if there are twenty flurries that don’t even hit the ground. You actually need more like a snow shower, we already went through this

from national weather service 

Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed

Next weekend looks good for a big storm. The midweek system disappeared unfortunately. Radar looks good for quick hitting snow showers mixed with sleet and rain for the next 3 hours.

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. At least in the Bronx.

There’s more coming later tonight especially north and west.

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a snow shower in the Bronx a short time ago. The streets became wet, but there was no accumulation.

That’s a trace of snow 

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I thought flakes in the air is a trace, but I could be wrong 

3 hours ago, doncat said:

You're right... There's a difference between T and measurable.

Trace of snow has to be at least “a wet/white ground not just a flurry”.

11 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

Yep, looks like we might need to watch Tuesday the 4th. Or at least, keep it in mind

It may be late Tuesday night into Wednesday night but seems good for now, still very far away!

1 hour ago, CarLover014 said:

Yep, looks like we might need to watch Tuesday the 4th. Or at least, keep it in mind

For sure a quick mover but could drop a few inches to start December. And keep in mind it’s very active after that too.

currently cold and brisk with a temperature around 36

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Last 3 days of Nov.  averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. BN.

Month to date is. -3.4[44.8].       Should end Nov. at  -3.2[44.4].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Still just a 40% chance of at least 3" of Snow, by the 13th.-----GEFS.

GFS and its friend para GFS are both showing snow in the long term. Something to watch.

Gfs para 18z showed two possible wintry storms for next Tuesday and than again next Sunday. Far away obviously just something we can possibly track in the future.

Gfs para has 2 snowstorms for the next week and half. Looks cold after 3rd of December and stormy

I think December 5th and on are favorable but these cutters keep on giving for now. Let’s see how models handle the pattern next week. Models keep flipping each run!

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugly pattern coming up with an array of cutters that will continue to generate plenty of rainfall and mostly mild temps. 

Guidance is all over the place with some looking worse than others and many swapping places. However it's looking more and more likely that any snows will hold off until the 2nd half of December.

Give it some time once the pattern reloads we will get our shot. You’ve gotta remember November and early December gets a lot of cutters. Besides I wouldn’t trust the models past 5 days. But the pattern is not terrible around December 4th and on!

I like this look although it’s navgem it’s still a decent model. Looks like around 160hrs away or so we can have a low pressure that could overrun some cold air.

Down to 20 in the Bronx, currently 24.

Happy thanksgiving my boys

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does this mean?


.

Slower and bigger storms. Definitely snowier and colder or drier and colder.

6 minutes ago, Dino said:

FV3-GFS is close to a One-Two-Punch scenario along mid-atlantic and northeast November 29th & Dec 2nd.  

That’s so far why not pay attention to Tuesday’s system. It could trend 30-50 miles south and at least you’ll have white rain, possibly more if it develops stronger.

39 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Reading comprehension and paying attention aren't Toeknee's strong points  

Well it said it would be done by 3am Sunday. Also I may not be good at reading comprehension but I’m good at predicting snow that’s for sure! Lmao jk

How come tropicaltidbits doesn’t load up the gfs and para? Anyone know where I can look at it

Was there any thundersnow with this storm?

A picture from Central Park yesterday.

That was possibly the worst snowstorm I’ve ever been in traffic wise