Gosnow

Graupeling here in lititz. Little bit laying on deck and grass. Very cool.

Lt snow lititz.

Anything on the long range to look forward to? It was mentioned perhaps one more hurrah in late March or is that off the table?

Driving from granville to lititz snow all the way. Roads did not cave until I hit 322 east. Snowing moderately here in Lititz.

All nice and white in Lancaster county. Prob around 1.5 to 2 in. Gotta love little storms that can over deliver.

Mr Horst saying March could be the snowiest month. Perhaps the new Feb 

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html

Here is to tomorrows start. March 1st. Personally I think this first one will over perform and we see 3 to 4 in Lanco tomorrow.

12z gfs looking mighty interesting for sunday Monday now. What a difference a day makes. Of course until the next model run.

8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hello !

Awesome stuff today folks!

I’m looking forward to posting lots of maps over the next couple of weeks !

Our best storm is yet to come this season!

On wgal tonight Joe Calhoun normally pretty conservative was saying that the ingredients were coming together for a storm if not next weekend then the start of the week after. Could be he is referring to the storm showing up in the long range. If as everyone has been saying everything is coming together perhaps it is our time. I think someone said March could be the new February. 

I think this will be good test of the models seeming to show the CAD staying strongeracoss all levels than what we have seen in the past. How many times have models seem to bring in the warmth faster than what we have experienced? 

6pm gfs gives us hope for early next week although it seems that the initial push of snow is now south in Virginia and then afterwards up our way. At least it is something to hold hope out for.

About 2 to 3 here in lititz and still snowing nicely.

Lightly snowing in Lititz. Nice to see amounts get upped in the short term vs going down. Heard from wife schools starting to cancel.

Concerning weather models and global warming. I am familiar with modeling but not weather modeling. The question i would think is how much of a model starts from historical values or averages. As the weather changes over time those I think those could become out of step with current conditions. A model reading real time data which I would guess they all do sampled within the past few days or week I would think those would have more weight in the algorithms. I think for the most part they get general features right it is the details that get muddied which is I know what usually concerns us most.

Being a former buffalonian I follow their weather discussions. Here is what they are seeing per their 258 PM discussion which seems to be spelling out our issues in the lsv especially Lancaster and surrounding counties. We needed phasing later not earlier.

As mentioned...the center of the cyclone was found over the Lower
Mississippi Valley at 15z. The system will track to the northeast
across Kentucky and West Virginia to about the Mason Dixon Line...
which is about 25 to 50 miles further north than most guidance
packages were suggesting. This subtle shift is being verified by
pressure falls over Ohio and West Virginia. If this trend
continues...it should lead to slightly stronger winds and possibly
more snow. The reason for the shift is an earlier phasing of the two
branches of the jet. This is starting to become apparent in WV
imagery.

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Horst:

 

Monday, January 14, 2019:

The second half of January may be a wild ride, both in terms of storms and temperatures. While generally colder than recent weeks, I can still see a mild day every now and then...thus, making precipitation type a tricky matter as a parade of storms move by. I expect we'll see a system of import pass by here every 3 or 4 days--this will make for lots of heavy lifting for meteorologists as there could be up to four storm threats before month's end.

Short term, Monday through Thursday morning will be quiet with seasonable temperatures and no precipitation. Then comes system #1 (a fast-moving clipper) on Thursday afternoon and night with a 6- to 10-hour period of snow changing to wintry mix...ending as drizzle. South of the Turnpike this type of system typically yields a coating to an inch or two, whereas central PA and the mountains could get 2 to 4 inches. Of course, those are "typical numbers" for a system like this--check back here Tuesday for me to issue my actual forecast for Thursday night's clipper system.

A shallow shot of cold air will slice in on Friday, behind the exiting clipper. Meanwhile storm #2 will be gathering in Texarkana...and this system will race our way with abundant Gulf moisture in tow. Precip should arrive here (as snow) Saturday afternoon, however, a change to wintry mix or perhaps even rain seems more likely than not Saturday night into Sunday morning. Of course, the storm is still 5+ days away...and it's much too early to lock in the details. But with very little downstream blocking, I expect the shallow cold air will retreat from southern PA and, thus, the inland track with a changeover is the more likely outcome. (Snow lovers can hold out hope of a more eastern/colder track for a couple more days--the critical disturbance won't even come into the US west coast until Thursday AM.) Another possibility...is the storm will begin as snow, then change to rain Saturday night, then end as a period of snow midday Sunday, as Arctic air gets drawn into the back end of the exiting storm. Realistically, however, it will be Thursday until this storm can be dialed in--check back then!

Beyond that, a windy/cold Monday will follow...and next Monday night could be the coldest of the year so far if high pressure builds in over fresh snow cover. But again, without downstream blocking to hold in the cold air, milder air will return our way just as storm #3 approaches sometime in the Wednesday PM to Friday PM time frame. We're now talking 10 days in the future--so this can all change--but I can see this becoming another changeover storm for the Lancaster area.

Summing: I rather storm period is developing with above-average precipitation likely for the second half of January. But if you want all snow from these next three storms, then move to Bradford PA...because here in Lancaster all three systems may involved a changeover. This will make for challenging forecasts...and sleep deprivation...for this guy! (grin)

Not comforting for us in the lsv for all snow But glad to hear up north could see a whole bunch. Still time to change. Really need the blocking to hold in the cold. It always is a matter of timing and blocking.

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Welcome to the forum! 

Seems like some boom and bust potential right up to and through game time. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds...

Thank you! Live in Lititz and a weather hound. Love snow most of all. Yeah this will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

State college in afd hinting at perhaps heavier amounts due to deformation zone for se areas. Perhaps some bonus snow.

 Model Cycle and latest SREF indicates the potential for
2-3X the snowfall forecast for the far SE zones thanks to a
mesoscale deformation zone just to the north of a compact
700-500 mb closed low Sunday afternoon into early Sunday
evening. The SREF shows the nose of a -2 to -3 sigma, u-wind
anomaly (easterly LLJ) pointed right into that area. There will
be a very tight SSE to NNW gradient in snowfall within 20-30
miles north and south of the I-76 corridor. Will take the
measurable approach to gradually increase amounts across our far
SE zones (near and to the south of a KTHV to KLNS line Sunday
into Sunday evening), but still keep the bulk of Lancaster and
York counties below Winter Storm Warning criteria of 5 inches
for now.

BUFKIT time/height cross sections show a distinct second period
of moderate to briefly heavy snow from about 22Z Sunday to 04Z
Monday INVOF KLNS and points south from this potential
deformation snow band.

Snowing pretty hard in lititz. Nice pleasant surprise. Winter storm warning posted at 1:28pm for Lancaster county. Woot.