Snowstorm5921

Just now, Ji said:

we would of been better off not having this PV split. We have not seen cold from it...we have not seen snow from it except for a fluke that gave you flurries. What has it given us? The split occured in late December and January has been warm. The next 10 days are gonna be cold but we get some cold every winter no matter what.

 

I

Agreed.  I never understood the hype of SSWE.  They rarely help and hurt more often than not.  Will be really interesting to study all the things that made this winter fail so badly.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

lol we have 9.5 days of cold in the next 10 and the .5 of it is rain

Just the way this winter is going.  Laugh about it and move on 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow what a dreadful euro run if you want fun

Yup.  Absolutely nothing to track in what should be prime winter.  Unfortunately looks like we head into a dry pattern after next week’s rain.

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

we really need that midweek system to dig next week. Its not that far from producing

How is a low over Detroit not far from producing?  Lol

GFS continues the warm/wet cold/dry rinse and repeat look through the run.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS is a total disaster. Eps isn’t. But trying to find good in that is like polishing a turd!  Tpv bank over Baffin. Fast flow. Pac firehouse gets going again. Ridging starting to pop near Hawaii again. It’s a total mess and if the GEFS is right it’s probably game over.  Just hope it’s wrong because it’s hard to get anywhere good from that. 

GEFS have definitely been better than the EPS this winter so definitely cause for concern!

13 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

The GEFS shows a fairly zonal flow by my estimates. Not a PAC puke by any means but quick flow. Not a lot of time for anything to amplify. I guess beggars can't be choosers 

I’m sorry but that is ugly.

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

NA Blocking not nearly as impressive on the 18z GEFS as it was at 12z.

Looks like the piece of the PV that retros to AK is headed towards the Aleutians at the end of the run. Extrapolating a bit, it looks like a PNA ridge is developing, as it did on the 12z run.

Just can’t get any consistency with guidance showing the -NAO which is why it’s usually nothing more than a unicorn.

12z EPS look substantially worse compared to 0z.  Much lower heights in W Canada.

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love how when things look good you do nothing but deb and now that things look pretty crappy you are the merchant of hope!  And I totally get that the guidance is unreliable and so there is a chance it’s wrong. That a legit point. But what other than blind hope that the guidance is wrong are you basing this optimism on?  What objective evidence says it’s going to work out?  Just curious if you have actual evidence things look good or of this is just hope.  I have hope but I don’t feel confident when hope is all I’m basing things on. Lol

Nothing.  There’s nothing that looks favorable.  Call me whatever you want but I’ve been posting for days that things look crappy and was told i know nothing.  

Man the GFS goes to hell quick.  Curtains if it has the right idea.  Ugly.

woo boy the 12z GEFS definitely do not instill confidence on the long term being favorable.

6z GFS is abysmal.  The GEFS also backed way off the day 7/8 threat from 0z.

Just now, JakkelWx said:

BUT wait... there is hope

 

And if not then, definitely in March!!

10 minutes ago, frd said:

@JakkelWx

HM talking about the lack of a powerful system this week just ended,  which was needed and expected to help turn the NAO to negative. 

 

Really good insight.

-NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today.  Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies.

GEFS unfortunately breaking down the pacific as well.  Hopefully can salvage something before that.

It basically ends winter.  No -NAO to speak of.  Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune!

GFS flips the pac to garbage by day 12 just in time for another Rainer.  Damn MJO.

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If it comes back will you promise to leave and never come back? Better yet, no matter what happens you should stop visiting subs you don't live in and never come back. You make me want it to rain meteors in PA and that's not fair to all the good hearted people in your region.

Raining meteors would be fantastic given the boredom since November.  Appreciate it!

Both the GFS and CMC lost the day 8 event.  Not surprising since the Pac look has degraded significantly.

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

It was better than 0z so according to some on here they call that massive trends!!

I see nothing that looks better on the 6z GFS compared to 0z.

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As for where the pattern is headed in the LR, it looks a bit more ambiguous now than it did a few days ago. Not worth much analysis at this point, but clearly the EPac look is not as favorable towards D15 on the latest ensemble runs. I wont say anymore so as to not induce worry and panic lol. Best to keep the focus on the next 10 days for now and see how things shake out.

The Pacific has been trending worse on each ens run I’ve noticed.  Not a surprise since the Pac has been ruining things all winter.  Hopefully people keep expectations in check.

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps has a lot of spread with timing/placement but clearly favors too far east. Not much support if any for the euro ops idea. 

Yeah.  Not much to get excited about per the EPS

Just now, BlueDXer75 said:

Why are you so upset? All your posts are negative and take away from great analysis in here. There have been times where we got slammed and DC nothing, let’s be happy for them

I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon.  I don’t post with snow goggles on