SandySurvivor

27 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

If the bullish HWRF scenario (from previous runs) is accurate, then what will happen today is a band of convection will start flaring up over the Bahamas, and then over the course of 24 hours Fred will become organized again. So that's the thing to watch for. 

I think it's actually quite likely that Fred will intensify. It has alot of nuclear hot water to traverse. Once some convection flares over or near the center it's game on, and that's pretty much definitely going to happen since the water is so hot and there's ample convergence near the center.

This time of year, even shallow little Seabreeze boundaries blow up into big convective complexes, let alone a circulation like this. 

I am flying into Miami today in preparation of chasing Fred after looking at the latest HWRF.  Little nervous about chasing this in the Keys with potential surge issues.

Always cool to get to the “s” storm on the list but this storm paled in comparison to the last time we had an “s” storm which was sandy

after extensively reviewing damage photos and storm reports it’s clear that damage from sally is minimal compared to sandy

20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

go look up sandy...pretty sure that and camille were both 5's too

when all is said and done sandy will still be a more devastating storm than Laura will be 

My posts get removed from the banter thread 

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I actually hope people start playing this one up... within reason.  Call it responsible hyperbole.  Potential for a pretty bad outcome and timed on a holiday with more out of towners in the mix. 

We lucked out with Sandy a few years ago.  Two days later and it landfalls on Halloween and the impact is much worse. 

Sandy was a much more formidable storm when it was in the same area 

98l is giving me an uneasy feeling.  I hope this doesn’t turn into another sandy as it comes up the coast 

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SandySurvivor -

If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period....

That said, at this time this is no threat to you.  NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous.  Nothing.  

This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency.  Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint:  THERE ARE NONE. 

It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included...  that tells us there are no signs.  Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise...  by all means, enlighten us.  Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. 

That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME.

Am I gettin' thru.  Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this.. 

 

JMA is a significant hit for parts of the area

33 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Remember nobody does tropical like the SNE.

i was sniffing this one out before the models were.

i live on the coast and I’m getting supplies.  if it takes the least likely path and missed us I at least have rations for 99l after this 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. 

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

If you want to be complacent and not see the warning signs that’s on you.  I’m getting my family prepared.

Sandy was really rough on us and just after the storm we had 6-8 inches of snow.  It was like Armageddon 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Give it up guys. Next week is out to sea.

people didn’t think a hurricane was coming in 1938 either......

as I said eerily similar 

98L looking eerie to 1938 LI Express 

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

DCA gusted to 68mph

thats not that high

the tornado threat from sandy was more serious than this setup

On 1/17/2019 at 12:01 AM, SandySurvivor said:

looks like an hour or snow and then rain for the majority of the rest of the event 

nailed it

happy to see this be mostly rain.  

9 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

@SandySurvivor you can't compare the effects of Michael in Georgia since it didn't make landfall there. I'm sure you saw the damage between Mexico city Beach and Panama City Florida. Michael's affects at landfall were much worse than sandy as far as destruction in the typical sense. However sandy affected a larger area and was costlier. So it depends how you define "worse". Michael was A high end cat 4 at landfall and some suggest it may be upgraded to a cat 5 in the coming years when the full analysis is completed. Not trying to downplay sandy but if it didn't occur at high tide during the moon cycle it would not have caused so much damage. 

look at the damage sandy left behind.  entire communities wiped out.

looks like an hour or snow and then rain for the majority of the rest of the event 

The photos coming are an erie reminder of Sandy and the devastation in places like Long Beach Island.  

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Uhm, WTF? 

Look what Hurricane Sandy did as a Category 1 compared to Michael as a 3.

Queens is flattened for blocks but these structures right on the beach in Florida remain. 

I didn't expect Florida to dodge such a bullet.  This morning it looked like it was going to be really bad. From my post storm survey they came out relatively well.  

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I mean, I think talking about sandy constantly should get you five posted...that would probably take care of half the NYC forum.

Look.  Its relevant to this topic.  We haven't seen a storm like this with surge and this type of wind since Sandy.

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

 

This and the fact there aren't over 1 million acres of sparsely inhabited pine forest in southern NJ.  This is a strong storm and there will be damage to private and public infrastructure but I don't think it is physically possible for this storm to be costlier than Sandy given the location.

I prefer to deal in facts and science.  I stopped reading after your first sentence which is clearly false.  

The Pinelands National Reserve is over 1 million acres.  

6 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

It's showing that Sandy came ashore in one of the most densely populated places on the planet, Michael is going to come ashore in basically a swamp outside of the PCB area.  it's comparing apples with an F-150.  

Try to make a post without referencing Sandy.

Parts of South Jersey are barren pine forests and look how costly Sandy was.  The fact that this section of Florida is swampland means nothing. 

I still don't think the surge is going to be as bad as Sandy but the size of this storm and rainfall will make up for that

19 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Really?

I'm not sure what this is supposed to show.  

Sandy was a monster and landfalled around 940mbs.  This thing is borderline is pushing towards 925mb.  Even the Weather Channel crews are fleeing.  This will be the worst storm since Sandy there is no doubt about it

This is probably going to be the costliest storm to hit the United States since Sandy