SandySurvivor

27 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

If the bullish HWRF scenario (from previous runs) is accurate, then what will happen today is a band of convection will start flaring up over the Bahamas, and then over the course of 24 hours Fred will become organized again. So that's the thing to watch for. 

I think it's actually quite likely that Fred will intensify. It has alot of nuclear hot water to traverse. Once some convection flares over or near the center it's game on, and that's pretty much definitely going to happen since the water is so hot and there's ample convergence near the center.

This time of year, even shallow little Seabreeze boundaries blow up into big convective complexes, let alone a circulation like this. 

I am flying into Miami today in preparation of chasing Fred after looking at the latest HWRF.  Little nervous about chasing this in the Keys with potential surge issues.

Always cool to get to the “s” storm on the list but this storm paled in comparison to the last time we had an “s” storm which was sandy

after extensively reviewing damage photos and storm reports it’s clear that damage from sally is minimal compared to sandy

20 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

go look up sandy...pretty sure that and camille were both 5's too

when all is said and done sandy will still be a more devastating storm than Laura will be 

My posts get removed from the banter thread 

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I actually hope people start playing this one up... within reason.  Call it responsible hyperbole.  Potential for a pretty bad outcome and timed on a holiday with more out of towners in the mix. 

We lucked out with Sandy a few years ago.  Two days later and it landfalls on Halloween and the impact is much worse. 

Sandy was a much more formidable storm when it was in the same area 

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SandySurvivor -

If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period....

That said, at this time this is no threat to you.  NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous.  Nothing.  

This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency.  Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint:  THERE ARE NONE. 

It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included...  that tells us there are no signs.  Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise...  by all means, enlighten us.  Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. 

That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME.

Am I gettin' thru.  Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this.. 

 

JMA is a significant hit for parts of the area

33 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Remember nobody does tropical like the SNE.

i was sniffing this one out before the models were.

i live on the coast and I’m getting supplies.  if it takes the least likely path and missed us I at least have rations for 99l after this 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. 

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

If you want to be complacent and not see the warning signs that’s on you.  I’m getting my family prepared.

Sandy was really rough on us and just after the storm we had 6-8 inches of snow.  It was like Armageddon 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Give it up guys. Next week is out to sea.

people didn’t think a hurricane was coming in 1938 either......

as I said eerily similar 

98L looking eerie to 1938 LI Express 

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

DCA gusted to 68mph

thats not that high