SandySurvivor

SE Louisiana looks to be dodging a major bullet this morning 

1 minute ago, Tezeta said:

I never expected Sandysurvivor to drop the spaghetti like this. Today should be her day. 

Wind speeds are higher and pressure is lower.

Sandys surge and damage will exceed this one, however 

This looks like it might be slightly worse than Sandy 

Only one model takes this to CAT 4 now.  Assuming the majority of models are correct this storm will not ever attain the strength or be as severe as Sandy was.  Louisiana is going to luck out on this one. 

In terms of impact this isn’t going to be nearly of severe impact of something like Sandy.

Im expecting impacts similar to Nate in 2017 

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

You five posted yet? Should be

I am one of the most skilled tropical forecasters on this board.  I was ringing alarm bells about hurricane conditions in SNE and RFQ impacts well before anyone else on this board.  You have to give credit where it is due.

I shouldn't be five posted just because I have skill in forecasting these events. 

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

That UKMET solution from last 0z last night.  That appears would be far worse than Sandy to me.

19 hours ago, SandySurvivor said:

 

I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm 

Good to see my estimate of the storm impact is gaining traction now among the meteorology community. 

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When do folks begin boarding windows ? Is it now? Tomorrow? 

Already completed yesterday 

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 Sandy was a ~ 70 billion dollar disaster and this "SandySurvivor" just said 'more impactful than Sandy'  Who's the joke lol

Sandy was a joke for many until the morning after 

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

100 billion?

I try to stay with realistic decisions.

Great forecasters like myself inform others of what is the most likely outcome.  

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe 150mph?

I wouldn’t forecast that high.  I have a lot of experience forecasting tropical systems and the waters will be too cold to get that much.  
This is going to be a billion dollar disaster 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would be big winds with that

Called it yesterday

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gives chills to see Cane watches for CT. There’s gonna be mass scrambling to get all those boats out of there by tomorrow night 

Those boaters should have listened to me 

14 hours ago, SandySurvivor said:

we have everything packed and ready to evacuate 

I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm 

13 hours ago, SandySurvivor said:

increasing chance ms someone sees an RFQ hit from CT/RI border north and east from there. 
Wouldn’t be surprised to see winds over 100mph from Providence thru Boston.

 

3 hours ago, SandySurvivor said:

increasing chance ms someone sees an RFQ hit from CT/RI border north and east from there. 
Wouldn’t be surprised to see winds over 100mph from Providence thru Boston.

 

6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Wow 18Z Euro.  Really hooks left.  MV then towards Worcester.  Puts Metro Boston into the high winds.  

Just now, dryslot said:

Looking sandyesque.

you guys need to listen to me more 

6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Not even 100 but hurricane force certainly possible in coastal areas. 

If I lived on the coast I would get out now.  

1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said:

this is a joke,right?

I thought Sandy was a joke until it hit

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Not even close to either...it’ll be bad over a much more localized area than Sandy. For >80% of the northeast it’ll be NBD.

increasing chance ms someone sees an RFQ hit from CT/RI border north and east from there. 
Wouldn’t be surprised to see winds over 100mph from Providence thru Boston.

we have everything packed and ready to evacuate 

I expect impacts of worse than Sandy but not as severe as the 1938 storm 

This is going to be worse than Sandy

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain 
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island 
are increasing.  Watches will likely be required for portions of 
this area on Friday.  

My family and I will begin our evacuation plans this afternoon to beat the traffic

5 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

GFS keeps shifting west. Last night it was eastern New England, today New York City. In a couple more days we will know for sure, but I’ll say now this has a high probability to be the Northeast Hurricane that all the weather enthusiasts up there have been waiting for. 

My chase of Fred was a bust, however your post has me on high alert .

This has all the potential to be worse than Sandy.  Going to begin enacting our family evacuation plans tomorrow if these trends continue. 

26 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's starting to look like a bonafide tropical cyclone again https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-01-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Not sure exactly what's happening but it's sending out spiral bands in all direction, including the entire Cuban Seabreeze front which has effectively become a spiral band. 

Starting to get excited again. That whole mass of weather is coming towards South Florida. 

4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Am I missing something?  Looks like a hot mess to me.

Weather is slowly deteriorating here.  Partly Sunny with winds around 15mph.

39 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Wait what?  At 5pm the NHC forecasted Fred to be at 40 mph near South Florida with the bulk of the storm being on the west side of the state.  Why would a hurricane watch be coming at 11pm for anywhere, let alone Broward County?  

When a red tagger on this board says they have a strong feeling Miami will see a hurricane that holds more weight than a non red tagger bringing up an NHC forecast that is 4.5 hours old. 

1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

Not even the bullish HWRF runs from previous days showed deep convection going up this quick over the center.

Also, deep convection will drag circulation northwards and eastwards due to shear vector.

I have a very strong feeling we could have a hurricane in Miami. All the ingredients for a big surprise are in place. 

I’m rethinking my decision of Islamorada based off your feelings on this. Going to lose my deposit on the hotel here, however it’s best to be safe.  
 

May leave prior to the 11pm advisory. Don’t want to get stuck in the roads when everyone realizes what’s coming.  Do you think NHC goes right to a Hurricane watch for Broward and south at 11pm? 

24 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is essentially the first outer band to come through. It’s a quasi-band, it’s on the edge of Fred’s circulation. A whole lot more weather like this going to come in the next few days. I think this storm will be more intense than most people expect, it will be a “juicy” cyclone with tons of squall activity. 

9 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

NHC finally issues tropical storm watches for the Keys, but completely excludes SE FL. They're too conservative, it's ridiculous to think that there won't be tropical storm conditions in SE FL when most of the convection and bands will be on northern side of the circulation. 

There's still even a chance that Fred's center will go into SE FL once it becomes more vertically stacked and gets caught in the upper steering currents, like the HWRF scenario from the past few days.

So they're setting up SE FL for very short-fused watches and warnings, with barely any time to prepare.

I think they will rectify this at 11 pm - 5 am though cause this storm will be exploding with convection by then. 

Btw, DMAX is starting. Deep convection going up near the center. Game on!

Should I consider moving a few miles inland to avoid surge and flooding?

I'm setting up my chase location in Islamorada now, however these posts make me nervous that it could get bad.

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I am not sure this one is going to be chase worthy but good luck.

TY

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree, but sometimes a new chaser needs to cut their teeth with the marginal stuff in order to have the skill set to handle more intense systems.

Some of the lessons I learned during earlier failed/marginal chases were directly responsible for being in excellent position for future intense events. 

Best of luck @SandySurvivor

TY

3 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

A convective band is forming in northern semicircle, just like the HWRF bullish scenario from previous runs. The less bullish HWRF runs we have now don't show this happening until tonight, so it's ahead of the game https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

This is great news.  Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions?